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Rotoballer Max Petrie shares his bold predictions for the 2016 fantasy baseball year, which includes some note-worthy breakouts and busts.
Welcome to round two of our Bold Predictions segment. If anyone asks, Kyle bullied me into doing this. But in all seriousness, the best hitter on a team bats second, so I'm honored to be included. In this edition I'll be highlighting the hitters and pitchers I believe have the best chance to make crazy leaps forward or regress in shocking fashion.
I'm not going to bore you with predictions like, "Corey Seager will be a top 5 SS." That's much too tame. Want to find out who's included? Check it out below.
Editor's note: Be sure to check out our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.
Bold Predictions for 2016
1. Mookie Betts will be the number one fantasy player in 2016.
You want bold, I give you bold. Betts almost had a 20/20 season last year (18/21) and will be joined by a healthy Dustin Pedroia and budding star Xander Bogaerts atop the lineup. Leading off for a potent Red Sox lineup, Betts has a great shot at a 120/20/85/30/.300 season, which should be enough to take home the No. 1 player in fantasy baseball.
2. Felix Hernandez will finish outside the top 30 starting pitchers.
From the highs to the lows. Hernandez has logged eight straight years of 200 innings, but his fastball is losing its effect on hitters and was third-worst among starters in 2015. Look elsewhere for pitching.
3. Trevor Story is a top 10 shortstop.
Here's some rookie love. Story, the assumed heir to Troy Tulowitzki before the Jose Reyes trade, looks to be a lock to start the year as the starting shortstop in Colorado. He had a 20/22 campaign across two minor-league levels last year and has four home runs in Spring Training. If Reyes is moved after the 50-game suspension, Story has season-long value.
4. Carlos Carrasco wins the Cy Young award.
Carrasco's 14 wins and 3.63 ERA don't scream Cy Young but his 2.84 FIP and 2.74 SIERA were ninth and fourth among starters, respectfully. The defense behind him has improved and, barring another line drive to the head, should be a full-go in 2016. Excellent value in drafts.
5. Ender Inciarte is a top 30 outfielder.
I love my Braves but this pick has no bias. Inciarte, no longer stuck in a platoon, will lead off for the Braves, a team that will surprise some folks in 2016. Look for Inciarte to hit .300 with 85 R and a 10/25 combo, more than enough to exceed his ADP.
6. Josh Harrison is a top-5 second baseman.
Assuming Harrison holds down the second base job, this pick has a great chance at coming to fruition. In his last opportunity to play everyday (2014), Harrison hit .315 with a 13/18 combo. He'll hit in between Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen, an excellent situation for fantasy production.
7. Michael Conforto will hit 30 home runs.
Conforto caught fire to end 2015, hitting nine home runs over the months of August and September. Given a full-time job in left field, Conforto's power makes him a lock for 20+ home runs with a shot at 30.
8. Randal Grichuk will hit 40 home runs.
Here's where we get groovy. Grichuk hit 17 HR in 350 PA splitting time last year but is hoping to reach 600 AB this season. Given those opportunities, Grichuk should crack 30 with a chance at 40.
9. JT Reamulto is a top 5 catcher.
My favorite sleeper at catcher. Reamulto can't draw a walk but he can swipe bags, which makes him a candidate for a 10/10 campaign. If Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy and Marcell Ozuna back in the lineup, the Marlins should be better at the plate in 2016.
10. Matt Duffy is a top 10 third basemen.
Duffy isn't flashy, but he's a safe bet for a 10/10 floor and high average. Given he'll bat third in a sneaky good Giants lineup, he should have a great shot at 160 runs + RBI. Duffy is my choice if you're punting third.
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