March 2, 2016

Max Petrie and Nick Mariano analyze six MLB players as 2016 fantasy baseball busts and avoids. They are in line for disappointing fantasy baseball campaigns.

Big Names Who May Disappoint in 2016

Welcome back to episode eight of Turning Two. Here's a recap of the topics discussed to this point: who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, who can put up a 20/20 season, who can hit .350, who can reach 50 saves, and who will post a sub-2.00 ERA. Last week we shifted to player-specific material, starting with breakout candidates for 2016. Now we focus on a more sour note; bust candidates.

Drafting a fantasy land mine has some serious repercussions. The players highlighted in this segment aren't first round picks, but they cost a solid enough draft choice or auction value to heed caution, so listen up.

This week Nick Mariano will be pinch-hitting for JB. Have no fear, he has some money analysis. Same as usual, we'll each pick three candidates and then provide our input on the choices.

Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!

Max's Three 2016 Bust Candidates

Troy Tulowitzki (TOR, SS)

Now I know what you're thinking, "saying Tulo will get hurt doesn't count as a bust." And to that I say: 1) yes it does and 2) that's not my argument here. While Tulo has proven to be a liability for full-season production. He's eclipsed 140 games twice since 2008. But it's the numbers that tell the story of Tulowitzki's decline. Let's take a look.

Sure, the low average (.280), on-base percentage (.337), and slugging (.440) are all his worst since 2008. The HR (17) and RBI (70) totals leave plenty to be desired as well. But it's the struggles at the plate that are a bit shocking. Tulowitzki struck out 21.3% of the time, well above his career numbers (16.4%), and his 7.0% walk rate was his worst ever. He really struggled in the second half, hitting .214 after moving to Toronto in August.

The biggest drop off was versus the fastball. After hitting .384 with a .795 slugging percentage versus four-seam fastballs in 2014, he hit .276 with .448 slugging percentage last year. PITCHf/x tells the same story. His last three wFB scores: 20.2, 29.1, 0.8. That's a huge drop off.

While the allure of Tulowitzki in a full campaign in that Toronto lineup is tempting, I will be avoiding him in drafts this year. I advise you follow suit.

Nick's Response:

Yeah, this is going to pretty much boil down to two camps. One will draft him like the same old Tulo who is hitting in a great lineup and great park. The other will never own him because they see him as way too risky, and won't consider drafting him until way after those in the former group have pulled the trigger. I'm with you.

When an ISO drops to .160 from .263 I'm going to tread with caution. His BABIP stayed solid at .331, which adds up thanks to his contact rates and spray chart not seeing any real changes. But he just wasn't able to square up the ball with the same power stroke that we are used to seeing.

Tulowitzki has always been better against lefties, but last year against righties he hit .262 with a noticeable jump in his ground ball rate (42.3% vs. RHP, 35.5% vs. LHP). There are recent reports that show he is integrating a leg-kick into his swing a la Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson, so he seems to at least be cognizant that a change needs to be made and is open to trying things out. Results may vary. It's hard to pay the lofty draft day price for this experiment, especially after coming off of a poor year and the pre-existing durability concerns.

Felix Hernandez (SEA, SP)

Don't lose me here. This is by far the biggest reach in the segment, but without risk there is no reward, right?

King Felix was far from royal in 2015. His 3.53 ERA was his worst since 2007, and the 1.18 WHIP and 7.0% BB% were his worst since 2012. He also had a 15.3% HR/FB% and gave up a career-high 23 HR last year. His .288 BABIP was actually lower than his .295 career average, meaning he may be due for additional regression in WHIP. If I need to include a positive, his 18 wins were tied with David Price for the second most in the American League, a further reminder that wins don't correlate to pitcher success.

The biggest issue for Hernandez was the fastball/sinker combo. His fastball fell to 91.8 mph, which is dangerous territory for MLB hitters. The fastball was graded as the third-worst in baseball (-13.3 wFB). Hitters crushed his sinker to the tune of a .308 BAA, .523 SLG, and 11 HR. The curve is still a devastating pitch, but it's set up by the fastball. If he can't groove it past hitters at 91 mph, there's an issue going forward.

The defense should be better behind Felix, with Ketel Marte providing stability at shortstop and Mark Trumbo no longer being a black hole. At 30 years old he's still very much in the prime of his career, although you could argue the Mariners wasted Felix's youth. He's thrown over 200 innings for eight straight years. My prediction is that Hernandez breaks down in 2016.

Nick's Response:

I am still here, but I cannot go down this path with you. You raise plenty of valid points that require scrutinizing, and there is no doubting that he is not the same King Felix that we have come to love in previous years. His 2014 was too good to be replicated (.258 BABIP with only modest gains in soft-contact and pull-rates), but his 2015 was a really strange one.

If there is anyone who can adjust to life without an overpowering fastball, it's Hernandez with his strong secondary offerings. In the face of these struggles, he still managed to do well for most of last year and saw his year-long numbers get albatrossed by a few horrid starts. Bear with me through this dangerous cherry-picking game-- but if you remove his 0.1 IP, 8 ER start in Houston, and his 2.1 IP, 10 ER game against Boston, then his ERA sinks from 3.53 to 2.76.

Obviously we cannot ignore those blowups. They might speak to him being the kind of guy who can't bail himself out with raw stuff anymore when his mechanics aren't 100% that day. But I think it also speaks to how he was still solid for most of his starts. I can see the step back in 2016, as well as the small possibility he falls off of the table, so I respect the call. But I still believe in him for 2016.

Brandon Crawford (SF, SS)

Crawford makes for an easy target given his career track record. He more than doubled his single season HR record in 2016 (21), with three less plate appearances than 2015. He also set career highs in runs (65) and RBI (84) during his breakout 2015 campaign.

So why am I picking on a guy who just took the next step? Because he didn't make any drastic adjustments. His walk rate fell and he struck out over 21% of the time. His fly ball rate dipped to 33.5% while his ground ball rate spiked to 47.7%. This in turn led to a drastically high 16.2 HR/FB% for Crawford's standards; his HR/FB% was never above 7.0 until this point.

You may be thinking, "Maybe Crawford just learned to hit for power?" Valid inquiry, but the stats say otherwise. According to HitTrackerOnline, 11 of his 21 home runs were considered 'Just Enough' and four were classified as 'Lucky'. Also he only hit five HR in his last 156 AB, and his career splits indicate he cools off as the season progresses.

Additionally, Crawford crushed fastballs (.313 BAA, .619 SLG, 11 HR) but was stumped by the slider/curve combo (.169 BAA, 1 HR). As pitchers adjust to Crawford's pitch selection, it'll be up to B-Craw to respond. My guess is he doesn't respond enough to warrant a high draft pick at his currently lofty ADP.

Nick's Response:

Preach brother, I am definitely all aboard with fading Crawford this year. I know it is an even year, so the San Francisco Giants have their freakish voodoo in their sails. But I don't even think an army of witch doctors can prop up those numbers you cited, which gave Crawford his boost last year.

How does a HR/FB rate triple in the face of significantly less fly balls, as well as his lowest line-drive rate (18.8%) since 2011? Okay, he pulled the ball with more authority last year and jumped his hard-hit rate from 28.6% to 32.9%. He also crushed fastballs as you pointed out, which ties in nicely with the growth to a pretty .205 ISO. But that doesn't buy him such a huge profit margin.

His sticker price makes you feel like you're paying for a top-option who has to deliver those 20 dingers in order to hit value. If some of those "just enough" home runs hit the wall, or more pitchers attack him with movement pitches, then this destroyer is going to look more like a patrol boat.

Nick's Three 2016 Candidates

Francisco Lindor (CLE, SS)

It's not that I don't think he will be good relative to other shortstops, I just do not think that he will be that good in general. A lot of people glance at his numbers and figure "yeah, they will go down a little maybe, but he will have so many more at bats!" I just do not trust his batting skills at all. I think his speed is legitimate, but the average and home runs from  last year are going to sink.

The .313 average backed by the .348 BABIP from last year will be hard to replicate. The 12 home runs in 438 PAs on a meager 28.7 fly-ball rate is especially hard to believe in, given a minor league track record that did not show any moderate or plus power. His OPS in 2014 was .727 across 567 AA and AAA level plate appearances . But lin 2015 he started facing major league pitching, and he promptly posts an .835 OPS? I simply cannot expect the same moving forward.

Is it possible that he just grew up? Sure, but I think he needs to grow even more just to replicate what he did last year. Some people are willing to pay for growth on those numbers, but I am not. My favorite tidbit is that his average fly-ball distance was only 266.68 feet, slotting him in at 241st out of the 288 qualified major league hitters.

None of this feels right. I think in a full year's work he will hit around .275 while blasting 12 homers and stealing 20 bags. That is towards the upper end of what I would expect out of him in 2016. He could also run headfirst into a wall and hit around .260 with very little power, producing numbers that are not much better than Elvis Andrus.

Max's Response:

I am with you on Lindor disappointing fantasy owners in 2016, but he will still be a solid option given the lack of depth at shortstop. He had a fantastic 2015, slashing .313/.353/.482 in 438 plate appearances. That was propelled by a crazy second half batting .345, but I won't hold that against him. I am most impressed by how well he hit versus righties (.308, 7 HR) and lefties (.321, 5 HR). Yes, his .348 BABIP was rather high, but he showed the skill set to provide a safe floor in the batting average department.

The concern, like Nick mentions, is the power. He never showed this power at AA or AAA, but I won't hold that against him either. Just do not expect a 20/20 campaign anytime soon. He has a floor of 10/20, which is solid for shortstop, but not for his current lofty ADP. Lindor will not be a bust, but he will have trouble returning full value on his draft day cost.

Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY, OF)

You might think I am a mean guy, picking on Ellsbury after his 2015 was clearly derailed by injuries. On the one hand, durability has been a concern in the past with Ellsbury. Although in the past he suffered from more "freak" injuries, so it's fair to note that.

In 2015, Ellsbury only mustered a .257 batting average with a .301 BABIP, walking 0.7% less and seeing his strikeouts go up from 14.6% to 17.2%. He hit .271 with a .296 BABIP in 2014. The soft contact rate jumped from 17% to 23.8%, and his ISO fell from .148 to .088.

Almost all of the bad numbers came after he returned from his knee injury. Was he pressing after missing so much time? Perhaps he just needed an offseason to reset. But with some fragility to his frame, it is disconcerting to heavily invest in a player who posted such poor numbers last year.

His legs are his most valuable commodity. Entering his age 32 season, the Yankees may rest him a bit more and not run him so aggressively. This is not a fun recipe for fantasy baseball success.

Max's Response:

I agree, and would argue that this highlight is a year late. Ellsbury busted in 2015, managing a .257/.318/.345 split with 7 HR and 21 SB. It was easily the worst season of his career. He struck out a career-worst 17.2% of the time and swung and missed 32.9% of the time.

The biggest problem for me is the injuries. He is on the wrong side of 30, and given his medical history I have no faith in him bouncing back to his 2011 version. The issue is, how much lower can Ellsbury go? I'll say he bounces back after his dreadful 2015 season, but not enough to warrant an expensive draft day selection.

Sonny Gray (OAK, SP)

Gray is one of those guys that underwhelms me whenever I watch him pitch, but he has gotten results at ace-like levels for Oakland thus far. Is he really that good? Is he really lucky? Is he a wizard? My answer would be closer to lucky or wizard, rather than him really being this good.

Gray is not a strikeout beast, posting 169 in 208 IP last year. Oakland will struggle to produce a pitcher who wins 18-20 games for you in 2016, so his value is primarily in the ratios. Those are rather difficult to bank on, with strikeouts being the easiest to project. To his credit, he did bring down his walk rate from a 3.04 BB/9 to 2.55 last year, which always helps.

Here is the thing: even if you don't buy the 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP of 2015, you are probably paying for a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with your heart wishing for the 2015 numbers. Gray's BABIP in 2013 and 2014 was .276 and .277 respectively, and last year it was .255. This appears to have helped mask some steps back for Gray.

He has out-pitched his FIP/xFIP/SIERA stats each year in the majors, but the margins have gotten worse. His SIERA in 2013 was 3.04, in 2014 it was 3.56, and last year it was 3.80. In short, I do not trust the fun times to last, and Gray does not have dominating stuff that can bail him out when that music stops.

Max's Response:

First of all, wouldn't you rather be a wizard than be good? I certainly would, and I know Sonny Gray is fine with that description. While his SIERA and xFIP have both climbed year over year, he lowered his walk rate to a career-best 2.55 BB/9 and his 1.08 WHIP was 5th in the AL.

It's not like his pitches dropped off; his fastball (16.9 wFB) and slider (8.6 wSL) were tenth and fourteenth among starters, respectfully. And since Nick played the cherry-picking game with Felix, I am utilizing it here. If you remove Sonny Gray's last three starts, he would have had a 2.28 ERA. Keep in mind that he was shut down for hip problems to end the year, so perhaps he was running on leaky parts down the stretch. Regardless, sign me up for more Wizardry in 2016.

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