Late-Round Targets for 2024 Fantasy Football Best Ball Drafts

July 27, 2024

Nick's late-round fantasy football draft sleepers for 2024 best ball formats. His draft value picks and fliers at QB, RB, WR and TE to target late in drafts.

Fantasy football is built on the backs of your early picks but do not overlook the importance of those late-round heroes, especially for differentiation in best ball. Allow us to provide some late-round fliers at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end that are worth taking due to their upside next to their price. Whether that's full-season value, an early boost for rookie-heavy builds, or rookies that could provide afterburners when the stretch run comes, we've got it all.

I know some best ball sites utilize kicker or defense slots but those won't be a focus here. Perhaps one day down the road we'll weave it into a defense drafting strategy.

For today’s purposes, we're using aggregate ADP data from best ball drafts as of July 07, 2024. Let's dig in!

Late-Round Fliers - Quarterbacks

-Will Levis is surrounded by a roster that went from run-heavy optimization around Derrick Henry in 2023 to a pass-leaning approach around him for this season. Drafters are not adequately adjusting to this sharp turn after so many years of pounding the rock under Mike Vrabel. Tennessee didn’t even sit on Treylon Burks as a starter here, bringing in Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to complement DeAndre Hopkins.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are versatile backs who each earned a top-12 target tally among RBs in 2023, with 67 and 70, respectively. Listen to what the team is telegraphing here. The market is drafting Ridley and Hopkins in the top 75 but don’t think Levis is beyond a low-end QB2?

Expecting one of biggest schematic changes this season to come from #Titans.

Had 3+ WRs on the field just 58% of the time last season, 25th in NFL.

1. Replace Derrick Henry with two space RBs

2. Bring in Brian Callahan, whose Bengals had 3+ WRs on field 78% last season…

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 9, 2024

-Bryce Young had a disastrous rookie season so the bearish attitude is understandable. The good news is that it’s all upside with the Year 2 pricing. And there are several marked upgrades to provide optimism heading into this season.

Dave Canales’ creative playcalling is here, Diontae Johnson provides Young with a true No. 1 receiver alongside the first-round choice of Xavier Legette, and Ja'Tavion Sanders helps reinforce an underwhelming tight end group. Carolina also signed Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt for a left and right guard, respectively. With so many Panthers going late, Young can be a vital part of building a late stack.

-Derek Carr averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game in New Orleans’ final four games of the season. And Carr had five top-12 weekly finishes, including two in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 and 16). He was the QB1 in Week 18 but we know most don’t utilize that.

Carr also played much of the year while managing visible injuries yet he suited up for all 17 games. One can recognize the results weren’t great but he’s made at least 15 starts in all 10 of his NFL seasons. The best ability is availability, eh? And a first-rounder in Tailese Fuaga slotting at left tackle should help Carr take fewer hits.

Late-Round Fliers - Running Backs

-Chuba Hubbard was a top-24 RB in eight of Carolina’s final 12 games and could supply early-season juice for drafters who loaded up on rookies. Jonathon Brooks should get involved as the season progresses but will need to prove he’s 100% after a torn ACL ended his final collegiate campaign. The 6-foot-1 Hubbard has a chance to earn the No. 1 role with early momentum so don’t turn your nose up at a guy who proved capable of handling 20 touches per game. But fine, you want young upside...

-Bucky Irving is a bet against Rachaad White, whose value was built on volume rather than efficiency. White has 50 or more receptions in back-to-back seasons, though he's yet to average over 3.7 yards per carry in a year. Tampa’s line was not good in 2023 but White didn’t pop in ‘22 with Ryan Jensen at center either. Meanwhile, Irving had a 6.8 YPC in 2022 and a 6.3 mark in '23, with 56 receptions last season. He could simply be an upgraded version of White’s versatility.

-Braelon Allen could become the AJ Dillon-esque vulture to Breece Hall in this year’s Nathaniel Hackett offense. Some are pointing to Hall’s insane workload from 2024 once he proved 100% but Allen is better than 2023 Dalvin Cook. Most RBs are. Allen is a 6-foot-1, 235-pound bruiser with burst and good receiving instincts with double-digit TDs in all three of his seasons at Wisconsin.

If the Jets’ stout defense is no longer scrambling to cover an inept offense then both RBs could feast with positive gamescripts galore. Some like Allen, and some really like Allen:

With TreVeyon Henderson officially going back to school, let me introduce you to the 2024 RB1: Braelon Allen.

• Currently still 19 years old
• 6'2" 245lbs
• Back-to-back 1200+/11+ seasons in 2021 and 2022 (he played his entire freshman season at 17 years old!)
• Showcased… pic.twitter.com/NP6cYe4sjq

— Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) January 12, 2024

-Will Shipley provides a cheap pathway to Philadelphia's offense through a player who could turn even 3-5 manufactured touches into big plays. Not only did he average five yards a carry or greater in each of his three collegiate seasons at Clemson, but he also totaled 85 receptions for 602 yards while averaging 26.6 yards per return on kicks and punts.

There are sneaky spike weeks for a versatile guy like Shipley, and then there's the lengthy medical record of Saquon Barkley, including 2020's ACL/MCL tears, a couple of ankle sprains, and more. Shipley splitting with Kenneth Gainwell could provide fireworks if Barkley is unavailable.

Late-Round Fliers - Wide Receivers

-Demarcus Robinson is a favorite for WR3 duties on the three-wide happy Rams, though some will stump for Tutu Atwell. Robinson made friends as a weekly WR2/3 between Weeks 13-17, either scoring a touchdown or topping 90 yards in each of those five games. Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were active in that window. And while Kupp was held out entirely in Week 18, Nacua and Robinson had a ~40% snap share before leaving while Atwell had a 93% tally alongside Ben Skowronek. Things can change in an offseason but Robinson is a great late dart.

-Jalen McMillan has a strong chance at winning the job as Tampa Bay’s No. 3 receiver on the perimeter with Chris Godwin moving back into the slot. He battled injuries as a junior at Washington last season (and still had a 45-559-5 receiving line) but outproduced Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk in 2022.

An NFL team is going to get a STEAL with Jalen McMillan

-Matched RD1 pick Odunze in 2022 production
-9.33 RAS (top 200 all time)
-Played thru a knee injury in '23, scored more fantasy points in Wash's final 3 games than Rome

Flag planting McMillan = TOP "sleeper" WR prospect pic.twitter.com/ZK2ag8Ljbo

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) March 19, 2024

-Javon Baker is trying to stand out amongst a young New England receiving group. If Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett can provide even semi-consistent deep shots for Baker then the rookie could pop off as he did in college. After averaging ~14 yards per catch as a sophomore and junior, Baker blew past that with a 21.9 YPC tally (second in the FBS) for 1,139 yards on 52 catches at UCF.

Let’s see if he wins “X” receiver duties while Polk handles the middle of the field and Demario Douglas takes the slot. Even if we have to wait out early K.J. Osborn reps and hit the field before Kendrick Bourne fully recovers from his torn ACL (no guarantee), the upside is clear.

-Greg Dortch is always there at the end of drafts and this writer is shocked that this remains the case, especially on full-PPR sites. He’s been an excellent player when given a starting role and that’s coming in the slot this season. Yes, there is additional competition with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but that also means more trips to the red zone!

Dortch snuck in as the WR45 in PPR between Weeks 11-17 when Michael Wilson and Marquise Brown were out. In 2022 Weeks 1-3 when Rondale Moore was out, Dortch was the WR19 (15.3 PPG). Then he was benched until he was the WR10 in Week 11 with Marquise Brown out. His snap count wouldn’t top 60% again until Weeks 16-18, when he was the WR25 (12.1 PPG).

All of this said, his 14.5 PPR PPG would have been tied with Amari Cooper for WR19 honors in ‘22. And now he’s practically free. Enjoy!

-Jalin Hyatt was Big Blue’s third-round pick in 2023 but never had a chance to get going because, well, the 2023 New York Giants were a trainwreck. And he still turned 23 catches into 373 yards! PFF charted him with six deep catches for 234 yards with a 37.6 average depth of target, with three of them being contested catches. If this offense can ramp up the volume and push the ball then this guy could pop in a format such as best ball. And a little more muscle should help tack on the yardage.

"That speed don't go anywhere" 🚀

Jalin Hyatt bulked up in the offseason, but says he still has his lightning fast running ability.pic.twitter.com/vXOQmyzasR

— Gridiron Media (@Gridiron_Media_) July 6, 2024

Malik Nabers is the alpha now, but this could help pull coverage away from Hyatt’s field-stretching routes. Darius Slayton will contend for similar looks so we’ll need to see the offense scheme Hyatt for intermediate touches as well. The lack of a playmaking tight end helps, as does Saquon Barkley’s typical 60-75 targets spreading to the rest of the offense.

-DJ Chark is a bet on Quentin Johnston failing to improve in Year 2, but there are avenues to success by outproducing Joshua Palmer as well. The 27-year-old managed five touchdowns on a brutal Carolina offense as Bryce Young couldn’t find a groove. Chark’s 35 catches on 62 targets, with a 10-for-17 conversion rate on contested catches.

-Kalif Raymond bounced around four teams in his first five NFL seasons before finally landing in Detroit in 2021. He’s been a field stretcher who has improved year-by-year, seeing his catch rate, success rate, yards per reception, and PFF grade all rise from 2021 to ‘22, and ‘22 to ‘23. The 5-foot-8 WR’s 75.8 PFF grade was 33rd in the database last season.

Posting a catch rate of around 80% is great, but hauling in 12-of-15 targets (75%) of over 10 yards makes him a good hedge against Jameson Williams. Those seeking leverage on the rising JaMo should target Raymond, who has starting reps with Josh Reynolds gone and only Donovan Peoples-Jones in the wings.

-Cedric Tillman looks to have the edge over Elijah Moore as Cleveland’s WR3 going into training camp. Deshaun Watson had top-12 weeks in a very limited 2023 season and Nick Chubb’s recovery could push Cleveland to lean on its passing game more.

-Brenden Rice is a late dart throw in a wide-open WR room if you want to push things beyond even Chark. He scored 12 touchdowns with 791 yards on 45 catches as a senior at USC and could earn playing time with a strong camp.

Late-Round Fliers - Tight Ends

-Isaiah Likely has reportedly taken snaps across the formation going into 2024 as Todd Monken’s offense looks to get him involved even when Mark Andrews is on the field. While the buzz is growing about Likely’s standalone value, one must maintain realistic expectations. He’s not a great TE2 in best ball if you’re only drafting two TEs.

Baltimore may not have a deep WR room but Andrews and Likely are also joined by Charlie Kolar, who earned praise as perhaps “the most active pass-catcher on the entire team during minicamp,” per Ryan Mink. But if Rashod Bateman flops and Likely can outearn the likes of Nelson Agholor and Devontez Walker for some split-out reps then we’re talking.

-Chigoziem Okonkwo is a late pivot with Will Levis for a cheap avenue to Tennessee’s pass-oriented attack. And if one believes the offense will be more efficient in attacking quickly versus the meandering, run-heavy approach that can eat more clock, then a few more trips to the red zone could benefit Okonkwo. His volume may not make him a darling on full-PPR sites such as DraftKings, but Underdog drafters just need him to vulture 5-8 TDs for himself.

-Jonnu Smith remains this writer’s most-drafted player of the preseason. He turns 29 in late August and was practically invisible in New England between 2021-22 before popping up with a career-high 50 catches for 582 yards in Atlanta last year. And now he joins a prolific Miami offense that is optimized for best-ball spike weeks. Smith’s ability to turn upfield and utilize his afterburners should pop with Miami’s creativity in pre-snap motion.

Jonnu Smith reached a top speed of 21.15 mph on his 60-yard touchdown, the 3rd-fastest speed by a tight end as a ball carrier in the NGS era (since 2016).

Smith is the only TE to reach 20+ mph as a ball carrier since the start of last season.#MINvsATL | #DirtyBirds pic.twitter.com/PO2nRfir4b

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 5, 2023

-Lucas Krull quietly became Denver’s TE to watch down the stretch last season, putting up 95 yards and a TD on eight receptions while eating into Adam Trautman and Chris Manhertz’s snaps. There’s an air of excitement in the Mile-High City with Bo Nix in town, so the big question at TE will be whether Greg Dulcich can stay healthy. The 6-foot-6 Krull is your late hedge against that because Trautman/Manhertz is certainly not.

-Jared Wiley finished his collegiate career with a 47-520-8 receiving line in 12 games at TCU and now gets to learn from Travis Kelce in Kansas City’s TE room. Reports have flown around about Kelce’s workload being more managed in his age-35 season, which cracks the door open for Wiley to make a statement in leapfrogging Noah Gray for the honor of being Patrick Mahomes’ No. 2 TE. If you’re going to take truly deep shots then attaching them to top offenses is wise!

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