Late-Round Starting Pitcher (SP) Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets In 2024

1 month ago by RotoBaller

Welcome officially to the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Late-round picks in fantasy baseball can often be the difference between a mediocre team and a championship contender. While it's easy to get caught up in the excitement of selecting big-name players early in the draft, finding those hidden gems in the later rounds is equally essential. As a fantasy manager, it's crucial to do your due diligence and research these overlooked players' statistics, injury history, and current team situation. While taking a chance on a player based on a hunch or a cool name may seem appealing, making informed decisions that increase your chances of success is the wiser strategy. With careful consideration and some luck, these late-round picks could be the key to unlocking your team's full potential.

Today, we're looking at some late-round starting pitchers for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority late-round draft target? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2024 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2024 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2024 Draft Kit.

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Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher prospect Paul Skenes is the new top prospect for pitchers by MLB.com. After going first overall in the 2023 draft, there were talks of Skenes making a push for the majors last season. That never came to pass, however, and the big righty will now look to leave Spring Training as a member of the Pirates' 26-man roster. The 6'6" flamethrower has an 80-rated fastball, a slider that comes in rated at 70, and good enough control to use those weapons against any hitter. Skenes is a dynasty darling and should be drafted in most redraft leagues as well.

If your draft occurs before word comes out where Skenes will start the season, he is worth the stash. He currently has a 266.7 ADP after the Pirates recently sent down the rookie phenom to minor league camp. Skenes may use the spring to work on a third pitch, his changeup, so don't be discouraged if he has a rough start. He is head and shoulders above other minor league pitchers at this point and can help fantasy managers as soon as he takes the hill in the majors sometime this summer.

-- Justin Raffone - RotoBaller

Louie Varland, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins right-hander Louie Varland ended last season on a high note. He was called up in September and posted a 1.50 ERA and a 17:1 K: BB across 12 innings. Overall, the 26-year-old owned a 4.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 71: 17 K: BB across 68 innings as a starter and reliever in 2023. His fastball touched triple digits at the end of last season. Varland's fastball velocity (95.3 MPH) was in the 73rd percentile while posting an elite 6.00 BB% rate (83rd percentile) per Baseball Savant. He is competing with newly acquired Anthony DeSclafani (elbow) for the fifth spot in Minnesota's rotation. DeSclafani is dealing with elbow soreness and is uncertain for Opening Day.

Varland has had an excellent spring and has yet to allow a run while posting a 0.64 WHIP and 11 strikeouts over 11 innings. With the strong spring, Varland should win a spot in Minnesota's rotation and is a bargain at his current NFBC ADP of 287. ATC projects Varland with a (7-6) record, 4.15 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 116 strikeouts over 120 innings. If Varland can carry over his hot spring, he could easily smash his ADP and surpass projections, making him a valuable late-round pick in upcoming fantasy drafts.

-- Brad Camara - RotoBaller

Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants

Kyle Harrison made his major league debut for the San Francisco Giants in 2023, making seven starts and finishing with a 1-1 record, 35 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP in 34.2 innings. The 22-year-old's first taste of big-league action produced some mixed results. Harrison's four-seam fastball generated an 11.5 SwStr% and .182 batting average upon its introduction to MLB hitters, but opponents slugged .556 against his other pitches. His 7.5 BB% beat the league average, but it was likely a product of the small sample size and leaves room for regression toward his minor league career mark of 12.3%. The lack of an effective secondary pitch and the control issues will hurt his ratios, but he should still be able to rack up a strikeout per inning.

Still technically a rookie, Harrison will start the season in the Giants' rotation, and he should have decent job security due to the team's lack of depth. RotoBaller's 246 ranking for Harrison and his current 277.94 ADP demonstrate restrained expectations for the young southpaw. Harrison's shortcomings will limit his fantasy viability in 2024, but taking a shot on him in the last rounds of a draft carries little risk, given the inherent potential of a franchise's top pitching prospect.

-- Dan Stephens - RotoBaller

Kenta Maeda, Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers pitcher Kenta Maeda enters his first season in the Motor City after inking a two-year, $24 million deal with the club after appearing in three seasons with the rival Minnesota Twins. The veteran's 2022 season was wiped out due to Tommy John surgery, and he struggled to a 5.18 ERA in the first half of the 2023 campaign while dealing with a triceps injury.

However, the 2020 AL Cy Young runner-up returned to form in the season's second half, working to a 3.79 ERA in 71 1/3 second-half frames, posting an attractive 21.3% K-BB% in that time. The right-hander has long put forth stronger underlying metrics relative to his surface ERA figures but showed he can still be a fantasy asset after returning from his triceps injury. At a 253.06 ADP, Maeda is offering fair value for a pitcher with excellent control, a healthy strikeout count, and safe run-prevention methods.

-- Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitching Brandon Pfaadt was one of the most hyped pitching prospects going into 2023, but he struggled for most of his rookie year. He had a 5.72 ERA in nineteen starts with 94 strikeouts over 96 innings pitched. However, he turned it around in the postseason, posting a 3.27 ERA and 26 Ks over 22 IP. His success down the stretch is likely attributed to his adjustments after the All-Star break. In the second half, he started pitching from the first-base side of the rubber rather than the third-base side. He also threw more sinkers (19% of his pitches were sinkers in the playoffs).

Among other things, these changes helped him increase his strikeout rate and lower his home-run rate. Going into 2024, Pfaadt looks to continue improving at the big-league level. With an ADP of around 223, he is a relatively low-risk option with plenty of upside. ATC projects Pfaadt with a 4.33 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts over 142 innings, making him a solid value at his current ADP.

-- Wade Smith - RotoBaller

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