Late-Round Fliers and Fantasy Baseball Lotto Tickets: Upside Hitter and Pitcher Value Picks

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Howdy, RotoBallers! While much gets made about the early rounds and interest is rightfully spotlighted on the superstars, we can't overlook hitting on the late-round lotto tickets! We're seeking players with 12-team viability who can be found in the last rounds.

You might read "sleeper" when seeing "flier", and there's likely to be some crossover throughout the industry. In this writer's mind, sleepers tend to be players you might hold for longer. These guys should give us early indicators to judge whether they're holds or our drop for early waiver gems.

That might be winning a job in the spring or simply making it to Opening Day with a bill of full health. Let's start the exercise with a minimum ADP of around 200 (and trying to dig deeper than that) according to consensus ADP data from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, and NFBC.

Late-Round Draft Fliers - Hitters

Catcher: Ivan Herrera (C19, STL) - ADP: 291

Herrera is poised to be St. Louis' "1A" backstop with Pedro Pages backing him up as Willson Contreras moves to first base. Those in two-catcher formats noticed Herrera last year as he delivered a .301/.372/.428 triple slash with five home runs in 259 plate appearances.

Baseball Savant clocked him with a .293 expected batting average under the surface so don't handwave the average as pure noise. His bat speed, chase rate, and barrel rate were all above-average marks and this is before the man plays enough to find a true starter's groove.

And guess what? The 24-year-old also went a perfect 5-for-5 on steal attempts. His 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed is squarely average but catchers have an eye for cues and it seems he's earned a green light. More of a full-time role and another year to reach his power prime could have us drooling over a 20 HR/10 SB campaign with a plus AVG.

(UPDATE: This had been Sean Murphy but he's out 4-6 weeks with a cracked rib as of March 3, so backburner this one - Drake Baldwin becomes a good replacement flier for the Atlanta-inclined.)

First Base: Nolan Schanuel (1B32, LAA) – ADP: 512

Schanuel’s first full MLB season yielded 13 home runs and 10 steals with a .250/.343/.362 triple slash over 147 games. He dealt with a thumb injury in late May that could explain an icy three-week stretch that bled into June.

But from June 10 on, Schanuel produced a .280/.386/.386 line that housed all 10 steals and nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (60). Much is made about the shaky prospects of his growing into power but his foundational approach looks good. And he got comfortable running and could threaten 15-20 swipes over a full year!

One must also remember how quickly the Angels progressed their 2023 first-round pick, calling him up after just 22 minor-league games. There is still plenty of development potential here in terms of a power approach or growing into a .300-average, line-drive bat with speed. I had Zach Neto as a massive buy last year based on the same logic.

Second Base: Caleb Durbin (2B35, MIL) - ADP: 377 / Thairo Estrada (2B33) COL - ADP: 323

Durbin went with Nestor Cortes to Milwaukee in the offseason Devin Williams trade and could find himself playing at second or third base. The Brew Crew did not re-sign shortstop Willy Adames and may use Joey Ortiz there, which leaves a question mark at the hot corner. If they slide Gold Glover Brice Turang over then the keystone vacates.

Durbin is an older prospect (he turned 25 in February) but has plus speed and plate discipline worth watching. In 82 Triple-A games, Durbin went 29-of-32 on steal attempts with a 12.5 percent walk rate and 9.9 percent strikeout rate, hitting 10 home runs for a .287/.396/.471 triple slash. Oh, and he went off in the Arizona Fall League:

New Brewer Caleb Durbin showed out during the Arizona Fall League this year 👀

He hit .312, swiped 29 bags (an AFL record!), and dazzled on defense pic.twitter.com/TAP6g6I3vu

— MLB (@MLB) December 13, 2024

The 5-foot-6 speedster is unlikely to sport much in-game power but American Family Field is a top-10 HR field for right-handed bats per StatCast Park Factors (three-year rolling average). He pulls the ball more than half of the time so sneaking 12-15 HRs in with 30-40 SBs is within reason.

Then it boils down to steady reps alongside Oliver Dunn and company. But that’s why he’s a flier! Big upside that may get unlocked with a strong start.

Third Base: Joey Ortiz (3B28, MIL) - ADP: 297 / Yoan Moncada (3B65, LAA) - ADP: 500

As just stated, Ortiz is slated to play somewhere in the Milwaukee infield (most likely SS) but carries 3B eligibility after last year. The 26-year-old was yet another Baltimore hitting prospect blocked by the pipeline of talent until being dealt to Milwaukee ahead of the 2024 season. But a midseason neck injury dampened enthusiasm after a promising start, so let’s reset expectations here.

Ortiz had a stellar .275/.380/.455 slash with seven homers, 13 doubles, and five swipes in 73 games (251 PAs) before neck inflammation ruined the party. He missed about two weeks but would hit just .205 with four HRs over his last 69 contests.

The pre-injury 0.85 BB:K ratio fell to 0.34 as he clearly wasn’t right. But that early form is intriguing as a Year 1 starter, showing promise as a batting average asset with double-digit HR and SB outcomes.

Shortstop: Carlos Correa (SS25, MIN) - ADP: 228 / Jacob Wilson (SS39, ATH) - ADP: 360

If you’ve taken speed elsewhere and want a late centerpiece to a batting order then tee up Correa, who has fallen due to recurrent plantar fasciitis. As someone with multiple foot surgeries under his belt, this writer recognizes the risk but the price is good for a fresh, early-season play even if the feet fade.

The .310/.388/.517 slash line overperformed his .278 xBA and .455 xSLG, but he created the opportunity for good luck with an aggressive approach. His first-pitch swing rate sat between 25-28 percent for eight consecutive seasons before ballooning to 33.5 percent last year, which coincided with a career-best 81 percent meatball swing rate.

He didn’t swing much more and trimmed the chase rate, simply pouncing on mistakes. The career-best 16.6 percent strikeout rate didn’t sacrifice his walks either, with a 10.9 percent clip aligned with career norms.

He has tons of mileage for a 30-year-old bat but if this approach holds and he continues to bat second then he could pay out. Those with thin depth may not want to buy into these medicals, but the price is viable.

Outfield: Jordan Walker (OF75, STL) - ADP: 308

Walker possesses league-winning talent with a prospect background that we can’t simply discard after a few speed bumps. Still 22 years old, Walker has failed to find a consistent sweet-spot swing that provides lift and it seems he went into a mechanical tailspin chasing improvements last year. The .619 OPS came with a rancid 28 percent strikeout rate in 51 MLB games between Triple-A tweaking.

Lest we forget that he logged a .317/.388/.548 line with 14 HRs and 14 SBs in 82 pro games as a 19-year-old first-year prospect in ‘21. Then 119 games at Double-A yielded 19 HRs, 22 SBs, and a .306/.388/.510 slash. An inconsistent 2023 in the bigs still provided stretches of hope before last year’s spiral.

But Walker has cited good rapport and work with new hitting coach Brant Brown in terms of tapping into his 6-foot-6 power. Walker can contribute to all five standard fantasy categories when he’s on and could be a third-round pick in 2026 drafts if the stars align.

The standard we hold young prospects to when they debut early is crazy. People already talk about Jordan Walker as if he’s a bust. Compared to MLB’s top prospects, Walker is:

The same age as Kristian Campbell.
3 months younger than Dylan Crews.
6 months younger than Matt Shaw.

— BigBobsCards (@BigBobsCards) February 20, 2025

Outfield: Eloy Jimenez (OF110, TB) - ADP: 488

Jimenez lost 25-to-30 pounds (say the line!) as he hopes for sustained health in his first year as a Ray. If he recovers the majority of his usual HR/FB rate north of 20 percent while playing home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field then the post-hype profits are real.

Perhaps the Rays help his career .728 OPS against left-handed pitching rise to the .797 career OPS against right-handers. Jimenez may force his way into regular DHing duties given the team has no strong ties to anyone who requires it.

Late-Round Draft Fliers - Pitchers

Pitcher: DJ Herz (SP112, WAS) – ADP: 345

Herz popped in a Washington rotation that sought stability with a 4.16 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and 3.77 SIERA, logging 106 strikeouts in 88 ⅔ IP.

I'll nab this from his outlook that I penned for him: His 27.7 percent strikeout rate ranked 18th among 157 starters with at least 80 frames in 2024, tied with Michael King and Hunter Greene. His 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate tied for 24th with arms such as Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes.

These were the top 12 pitchers for in-zone SwStr% last season (min 800 pitches in zone).

Bailey Ober, DJ Herz, and Ryan Pepiot making the list stands out. pic.twitter.com/N910cBoLUa

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 16, 2025

Walk concerns from the minors were alleviated early on. It had been around 13 percent but his first 10 MLB starts yielded a 6.5 percent clip. But his final nine starts yielded a 12.7 percent walk rate. Drafters will have to decide whether it was fatigue, failing to adjust, or regression.

Of course, he has options remaining and Washington brought on Mike Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to compete for the No. 5 spot. But given the ceiling present in his arm, a good spring out of Herz should leave no doubts as to his place in the majors.

Pitcher: Reid Detmers (SP131, LAA) – ADP: 382

Detmers displayed ace form but couldn’t stay consistent, suffering through a 6.70 ERA despite a 3.77 SIERA as the plus whiffs came with a 1.85 HR/9 anchor. After finishing 2023 on a high note, the southpaw kicked off ‘24 with four great outings (1.19 ERA, 1.58 FIP, 30:7 K:BB in 22 ⅔ IP).

But then he gave up four or more runs in six straight starts and was eventually demoted to iron things out in early June. He’d look okay but then backslide at Triple-A before ripping off three straight gems to finish August. On top of September’s roster expansion, that was enough for the Halos to give him another shot.

Despite facing the Dodgers, Detmers held them to two runs on three hits and two walks with 10 punchouts over six strong. Then he threw another quality start against the Twins before crashing out with seven runs in back-to-back outings, including one against the White Sox. But his season finale saw him tally 12 strikeouts of the Rangers, who also walloped three homers.

It encapsulated the 2024 Detmers experience well. Let’s see if the strikeouts can come with improved overall command and consistency. If it does then you’ve snagged a top-25 SP for pennies.

Pitcher: Hayden Wesneski (SP172, HOU) - ADP: 522

Wesneski joined the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, which heavily implies they have a plan for him. He bounced between the rotation and bullpen for the Cubs last season, posting a 4.04 ERA and 34:10 K:BB as a starter with a 3.66 ERA and 33:11 K:BB in the ‘pen. He handled both sides of the plate well (.681 OPS vs. RHB, .659 vs. LHB) but a 1.6 HR/9 follows a 2.01 mark from ‘23.

If Houston can construct a plan for him that limits round-trippers then there’s a robust profile here. His primary pitch is the sweeper that opponents have never hit over .175 against, but the four-seamer and sinker get beaten up.

Relief Pitchers:
Mason Montgomery (RP 112, TB) – ADP 633
Craig Yoho (RP 143, MIL) - ADP 769
Ryan Zeferjahn (RP 165, LAA) - ADP 832

Tampa Bay’s starting rotation is plenty fun but the bullpen is where the magic happens. Montgomery is the latest left-handed marvel with a devastating fastball-slider combo who overwhelmed hitters in a 9 ⅔ IP window last year. He struck out 17-of-37 batters faced, giving up two runs on six hits and five walks.

He began the year as a starter at Triple-A but struggled to a 7.04 ERA with 19 HRs allowed and an 85:31 K:BB over 78 IP. The bullpen transition began on August 8 and led to a 20:5 K:BB across 9 ⅔ scoreless frames. So all told, Montgomery the reliever logged 37 strikeouts in 19 ⅓ IP of two-run ball.

If you were going to pick a Rays reliever to snatch onto the closer role in 2025, look no further than Mason Montgomery

His blazing fastball and high 80s slider were no match for batters in his short MLB stint last season and give him the tools required for a high leverage arm pic.twitter.com/aqvjuUNBXu

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) January 25, 2025

Yoho’s first full professional season was electrifying with a 0.94 ERA/0.94 WHIP (1.43 FIP) and 101 strikeouts with a grounder-heavy approach in 57 ⅔ IP. His changeup and sinker carry the mail, but his curveball and cutter give him options.

Milwaukee may have traded Devin Williams but Trevor Megill still leads a stout unit. If someone like Abner Uribe can emerge here then Yoho certainly can.

And then there’s Zeferjahn, who finally got a chance on the Angels after several years in Boston’s system. At 26, the 6-foot-5 righty had a 2.12 ERA/0.76 WHIP and 18 strikeouts over 17 innings but didn’t get a hold and rode a .184 BABIP and 0 percent HR/FB.

Of course, he was also one of six pitchers with at least 35 batted-ball events and zero barrels surrendered. He might not be that good but the Halos have little behind Kenley Jansen and Ben Joyce.

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