X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Late-Round Fliers and Fantasy Baseball Lotto Tickets: Upside Hitter and Pitcher Value Picks

Jordan Walker - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Nick Mariano's 2025 fantasy baseball late-round draft fliers and lotto tickets. His favorite upside fantasy baseball sleepers and values to target late in drafts.

This premium article is part of our 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit and a free sample of the expert analysis loaded up in RotoBaller's Draft Kit. Enjoy this premium article for free for a limited time. All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

Howdy, RotoBallers! While much gets made about the early rounds and interest is rightfully spotlighted on the superstars, we can't overlook hitting on the late-round lotto tickets! We're seeking players with 12-team viability who can be found in the last rounds.

You might read "sleeper" when seeing "flier", and there's likely to be some crossover throughout the industry. In this writer's mind, sleepers tend to be players you might hold for longer. These guys should give us early indicators to judge whether they're holds or our drop for early waiver gems.

That might be winning a job in the spring or simply making it to Opening Day with a bill of full health. Let's start the exercise with a minimum ADP of around 200 (and trying to dig deeper than that) according to consensus ADP data from ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RTS, and NFBC.

 

Late-Round Draft Fliers - Hitters

Catcher: Ivan Herrera (C19, STL) - ADP: 291

Herrera is poised to be St. Louis' "1A" backstop with Pedro Pages backing him up as Willson Contreras moves to first base. Those in two-catcher formats noticed Herrera last year as he delivered a .301/.372/.428 triple slash with five home runs in 259 plate appearances.

Baseball Savant clocked him with a .293 expected batting average under the surface so don't handwave the average as pure noise. His bat speed, chase rate, and barrel rate were all above-average marks and this is before the man plays enough to find a true starter's groove.

And guess what? The 24-year-old also went a perfect 5-for-5 on steal attempts. His 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed is squarely average but catchers have an eye for cues and it seems he's earned a green light. More of a full-time role and another year to reach his power prime could have us drooling over a 20 HR/10 SB campaign with a plus AVG.

(UPDATE: This had been Sean Murphy but he's out 4-6 weeks with a cracked rib as of March 3, so backburner this one - Drake Baldwin becomes a good replacement flier for the Atlanta-inclined.)

First Base: Nolan Schanuel (1B32, LAA) – ADP: 512

Schanuel’s first full MLB season yielded 13 home runs and 10 steals with a .250/.343/.362 triple slash over 147 games. He dealt with a thumb injury in late May that could explain an icy three-week stretch that bled into June.

But from June 10 on, Schanuel produced a .280/.386/.386 line that housed all 10 steals and nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (60). Much is made about the shaky prospects of his growing into power but his foundational approach looks good. And he got comfortable running and could threaten 15-20 swipes over a full year!

One must also remember how quickly the Angels progressed their 2023 first-round pick, calling him up after just 22 minor-league games. There is still plenty of development potential here in terms of a power approach or growing into a .300-average, line-drive bat with speed. I had Zach Neto as a massive buy last year based on the same logic.

Second Base: Caleb Durbin (2B35, MIL) - ADP: 377 / Thairo Estrada (2B33) COL - ADP: 323

Durbin went with Nestor Cortes to Milwaukee in the offseason Devin Williams trade and could find himself playing at second or third base. The Brew Crew did not re-sign shortstop Willy Adames and may use Joey Ortiz there, which leaves a question mark at the hot corner. If they slide Gold Glover Brice Turang over then the keystone vacates.

Durbin is an older prospect (he turned 25 in February) but has plus speed and plate discipline worth watching. In 82 Triple-A games, Durbin went 29-of-32 on steal attempts with a 12.5 percent walk rate and 9.9 percent strikeout rate, hitting 10 home runs for a .287/.396/.471 triple slash. Oh, and he went off in the Arizona Fall League:

The 5-foot-6 speedster is unlikely to sport much in-game power but American Family Field is a top-10 HR field for right-handed bats per StatCast Park Factors (three-year rolling average). He pulls the ball more than half of the time so sneaking 12-15 HRs in with 30-40 SBs is within reason.

Then it boils down to steady reps alongside Oliver Dunn and company. But that’s why he’s a flier! Big upside that may get unlocked with a strong start.

Third Base: Joey Ortiz (3B28, MIL) - ADP: 297 / Yoan Moncada (3B65, LAA) - ADP: 500

As just stated, Ortiz is slated to play somewhere in the Milwaukee infield (most likely SS) but carries 3B eligibility after last year. The 26-year-old was yet another Baltimore hitting prospect blocked by the pipeline of talent until being dealt to Milwaukee ahead of the 2024 season. But a midseason neck injury dampened enthusiasm after a promising start, so let’s reset expectations here.

Ortiz had a stellar .275/.380/.455 slash with seven homers, 13 doubles, and five swipes in 73 games (251 PAs) before neck inflammation ruined the party. He missed about two weeks but would hit just .205 with four HRs over his last 69 contests.

The pre-injury 0.85 BB:K ratio fell to 0.34 as he clearly wasn’t right. But that early form is intriguing as a Year 1 starter, showing promise as a batting average asset with double-digit HR and SB outcomes.

Shortstop: Carlos Correa (SS25, MIN) - ADP: 228 / Jacob Wilson (SS39, ATH) - ADP: 360

If you’ve taken speed elsewhere and want a late centerpiece to a batting order then tee up Correa, who has fallen due to recurrent plantar fasciitis. As someone with multiple foot surgeries under his belt, this writer recognizes the risk but the price is good for a fresh, early-season play even if the feet fade.

The .310/.388/.517 slash line overperformed his .278 xBA and .455 xSLG, but he created the opportunity for good luck with an aggressive approach. His first-pitch swing rate sat between 25-28 percent for eight consecutive seasons before ballooning to 33.5 percent last year, which coincided with a career-best 81 percent meatball swing rate.

He didn’t swing much more and trimmed the chase rate, simply pouncing on mistakes. The career-best 16.6 percent strikeout rate didn’t sacrifice his walks either, with a 10.9 percent clip aligned with career norms.

He has tons of mileage for a 30-year-old bat but if this approach holds and he continues to bat second then he could pay out. Those with thin depth may not want to buy into these medicals, but the price is viable.

Outfield: Jordan Walker (OF75, STL) - ADP: 308

Walker possesses league-winning talent with a prospect background that we can’t simply discard after a few speed bumps. Still 22 years old, Walker has failed to find a consistent sweet-spot swing that provides lift and it seems he went into a mechanical tailspin chasing improvements last year. The .619 OPS came with a rancid 28 percent strikeout rate in 51 MLB games between Triple-A tweaking.

Lest we forget that he logged a .317/.388/.548 line with 14 HRs and 14 SBs in 82 pro games as a 19-year-old first-year prospect in ‘21. Then 119 games at Double-A yielded 19 HRs, 22 SBs, and a .306/.388/.510 slash. An inconsistent 2023 in the bigs still provided stretches of hope before last year’s spiral.

But Walker has cited good rapport and work with new hitting coach Brant Brown in terms of tapping into his 6-foot-6 power. Walker can contribute to all five standard fantasy categories when he’s on and could be a third-round pick in 2026 drafts if the stars align.

Outfield: Eloy Jimenez (OF110, TB) - ADP: 488

Jimenez lost 25-to-30 pounds (say the line!) as he hopes for sustained health in his first year as a Ray. If he recovers the majority of his usual HR/FB rate north of 20 percent while playing home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field then the post-hype profits are real.

Perhaps the Rays help his career .728 OPS against left-handed pitching rise to the .797 career OPS against right-handers. Jimenez may force his way into regular DHing duties given the team has no strong ties to anyone who requires it.

 

Late-Round Draft Fliers - Pitchers

Pitcher: DJ Herz (SP112, WAS) – ADP: 345

Herz popped in a Washington rotation that sought stability with a 4.16 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and 3.77 SIERA, logging 106 strikeouts in 88 ⅔ IP.

I'll nab this from his outlook that I penned for him: His 27.7 percent strikeout rate ranked 18th among 157 starters with at least 80 frames in 2024, tied with Michael King and Hunter Greene. His 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate tied for 24th with arms such as Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes.

Walk concerns from the minors were alleviated early on. It had been around 13 percent but his first 10 MLB starts yielded a 6.5 percent clip. But his final nine starts yielded a 12.7 percent walk rate. Drafters will have to decide whether it was fatigue, failing to adjust, or regression.

Of course, he has options remaining and Washington brought on Mike Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to compete for the No. 5 spot. But given the ceiling present in his arm, a good spring out of Herz should leave no doubts as to his place in the majors.

Pitcher: Reid Detmers (SP131, LAA) – ADP: 382

Detmers displayed ace form but couldn’t stay consistent, suffering through a 6.70 ERA despite a 3.77 SIERA as the plus whiffs came with a 1.85 HR/9 anchor. After finishing 2023 on a high note, the southpaw kicked off ‘24 with four great outings (1.19 ERA, 1.58 FIP, 30:7 K:BB in 22 ⅔ IP).

But then he gave up four or more runs in six straight starts and was eventually demoted to iron things out in early June. He’d look okay but then backslide at Triple-A before ripping off three straight gems to finish August. On top of September’s roster expansion, that was enough for the Halos to give him another shot.

Despite facing the Dodgers, Detmers held them to two runs on three hits and two walks with 10 punchouts over six strong. Then he threw another quality start against the Twins before crashing out with seven runs in back-to-back outings, including one against the White Sox. But his season finale saw him tally 12 strikeouts of the Rangers, who also walloped three homers.

It encapsulated the 2024 Detmers experience well. Let’s see if the strikeouts can come with improved overall command and consistency. If it does then you’ve snagged a top-25 SP for pennies.

Pitcher: Hayden Wesneski (SP172, HOU) - ADP: 522

Wesneski joined the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, which heavily implies they have a plan for him. He bounced between the rotation and bullpen for the Cubs last season, posting a 4.04 ERA and 34:10 K:BB as a starter with a 3.66 ERA and 33:11 K:BB in the ‘pen. He handled both sides of the plate well (.681 OPS vs. RHB, .659 vs. LHB) but a 1.6 HR/9 follows a 2.01 mark from ‘23.

If Houston can construct a plan for him that limits round-trippers then there’s a robust profile here. His primary pitch is the sweeper that opponents have never hit over .175 against, but the four-seamer and sinker get beaten up.

Relief Pitchers:
Mason Montgomery (RP 112, TB) – ADP 633
Craig Yoho (RP 143, MIL) - ADP 769
Ryan Zeferjahn (RP 165, LAA) - ADP 832

Tampa Bay’s starting rotation is plenty fun but the bullpen is where the magic happens. Montgomery is the latest left-handed marvel with a devastating fastball-slider combo who overwhelmed hitters in a 9 ⅔ IP window last year. He struck out 17-of-37 batters faced, giving up two runs on six hits and five walks.

He began the year as a starter at Triple-A but struggled to a 7.04 ERA with 19 HRs allowed and an 85:31 K:BB over 78 IP. The bullpen transition began on August 8 and led to a 20:5 K:BB across 9 ⅔ scoreless frames. So all told, Montgomery the reliever logged 37 strikeouts in 19 ⅓ IP of two-run ball.

Yoho’s first full professional season was electrifying with a 0.94 ERA/0.94 WHIP (1.43 FIP) and 101 strikeouts with a grounder-heavy approach in 57 ⅔ IP. His changeup and sinker carry the mail, but his curveball and cutter give him options.

Milwaukee may have traded Devin Williams but Trevor Megill still leads a stout unit. If someone like Abner Uribe can emerge here then Yoho certainly can.

And then there’s Zeferjahn, who finally got a chance on the Angels after several years in Boston’s system. At 26, the 6-foot-5 righty had a 2.12 ERA/0.76 WHIP and 18 strikeouts over 17 innings but didn’t get a hold and rode a .184 BABIP and 0 percent HR/FB.

Of course, he was also one of six pitchers with at least 35 batted-ball events and zero barrels surrendered. He might not be that good but the Halos have little behind Kenley Jansen and Ben Joyce.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston Needs To Earn His Spot In Training Camp
Los Angeles Chargers

Hassan Haskins The Leader For No. 3 RB Job
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Plan For 1-2 Punch At RB With Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris
New England Patriots

Patriots View TreVeyon Henderson As A Three-Down Back
Cleveland Browns

Browns View Quinshon Judkins As A Potential Bell-Cow Back
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Plan To Develop Jalen Milroe As A QB
Tennessee Titans

Titans Unlikely To Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Cleveland Browns

Browns Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To Elijah Moore
Cleveland Browns

Browns Agree To One-Year Deal With Diontae Johnson
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Could Reunite With Amari Cooper
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Sign Robert Woods To One-Year Deal
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
Cleveland Browns

Browns Decline Kenny Pickett's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Giants Won't Pick Up Evan Neal's Fifth-Year Option
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Ikem Ekwonu
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Could Remain An Eagle
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Could Still Add Wide Receiver Help Prior To 2025 Season
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Struggled During Pre-Draft Process
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Visiting With Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Ogbah Signs With Jaguars
New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Undergoes MRI Exam
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Connor Hellebuyck

Gets Pulled Again
Alexandre Carrier

Fails To Finish Game 4
Tyler Tucker

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Devin Williams

Removed From Closer Role
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Austin Hays

Smacks Two Homers On Saturday
Jorge Polanco

Goes Deep Twice On Saturday
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hits Four Homers On Saturday
Framber Valdez

Tosses Complete Game In A Loss To The Royals
Jackson Chourio

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Ryan Mountcastle

Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle Not In Game 1 Lineup
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
MLB

Yankees and Blue Jays Postponed On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF