Quarterback Risers for Fantasy Football Drafts: ADP Analysis for Kenny Pickett, Mitchel Trubisky, Marcus Mariota

Antonio Losada looks at fantasy football quarterback risers for 2022 drafts. These are potentially undervalued quarterback to be targeted based on ADP.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three risers at quarterback.

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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks - ADP Risers

Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers

Breaking (old) news: the Steelers listed rookie Kenny Pickett as the third-string quarterback behind Trubisky and Mason Rudolph in their first released depth chart back on Aug. 5. That made sense back then and even more considering it was coming off the offices of Pitt. That can surely change at any point during the upcoming season though, given 1) Trubisky mediocre quarterbacking in the past and 2) Pickett and Rudolph are definitely not that different from each other in terms of true on-field pro-experience/talent.

Pickett's ADP tank from early August was related to that report, obviously, but he's experienced a sudden rise in ADP in the two weeks after that and the trend is still on an upward trend.

The explanation: Trubisky started Pitt's first preseason game and although he was reasonably effective (four-of-seven, 63 yards, one touchdown) he didn't see enough volume to convince anyone he's the legit QB1 and the man locked into the role come Week 1. That, of course, had more to do with Trubisky than Pickett, but the rookie also got his reps and finished that game with a 13-of-15 outing for 95 yards and two touchdowns himself.

See the problem? Trubisky's ADP is, same as Pickett's, on the rise. That is entirely reasonable, but that also speaks about the absolute mess this situation is. Trubisky is a mediocre quarterback seemingly trusted by HC Mike Tomlin because – at least for now and barring a catastrophe – Pickett is still green and not ready to drive the offense – only, most probably, Trubisky will end screwing things up at some point and forcing the hand of Tomlin to make the change.

Rudolph, I'm sad to report, is just a name and not worth even discussing. Sorry, mate. The battle for the QB1 role is an ongoing lie that is fooling no one. Mitch is going to start Week 1. Pickett is the QB2 of the Steelers.

This is the typical vet-starts-until-he-screws-up situation with the rookie getting some training reps and getting ready sitting on the sidelines and observing the main man doing it until he inevitably has to step up and play to keep the franchise at a respectable level among other organizations in the NFL.

The verdict: none of Trubisky or Pickett is worth a fantasy draft pick. The projections (from PFF) have Pickett as the QB34 and Trubisky as the QB30. You can even do the (nonsensical) exercise of combining both projections to get a Franken-quarterback and you'd still come up with some sort of middling QB13 outcome. I don't think I need to say no more.

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons

The situation developing in Pittsburgh (read above) might end up being the one that ultimately hits Atlanta in terms of the pairing of a vet and a rookie at the quarterback position. The difference, of course, is that Mariota is a much better quarterback than Mitch Trubisky and that Desmond Ridder should have a larger gap to bridge if he wants to start than Kenny Pickett. (Or so they say, regarding that latter point.)

Atlanta, as any other NFL franchise would do, is selling the whole "open QB competition" thing to whoever wants to buy it. I'm not. Mariota is an experienced QB, has worked with the man scheming the Falcons' offensive plays, and is above Ridder (clearly) in the pecking order right now. In fact, and as counterintuitive as it might sound for the new kids out there getting into the football world this summer, we got our answer off the first preseason game.

Mariota and Ridder both appeared in it. The former got to attempt two passes in one series, then went to sleep making way for Ridder to play the rest of the game. In other words: keep the starter under wraps, hand the freshman reps so he can take advantage of the less competitive environment, and learn on his way to eventually – this season or, most probably, further down the road – leading the Falcons.

The ADP rise here comes clearly for that now-locked QB1 for Mariota. Other than that, you can still pass on drafting him with a pick unless your team is part of a 2-QB league or something of the like. And even that might be a stretch in a league in which 32 starters play weekly.

Mariota is the QB30 off draft boards and although he projects to finish the season on a positive ROI (QB28 as PFF sees it) he's still below most (if not all) other surefire starters right now.

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