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Josh Donaldson Can Still Be a Sneaky Draft Day Value
All-Star Josh Donaldson is taking his talents up north, crossing the border to the launching pad known as the Rogers Centre. This is great news for his fans and current owners. Donaldson’s trade was part of Billy Bean’s dismantling of the Oakland A’s. The trade was shocking as Donaldson is coming off an All-Star season and could have easily been an All Star in 2013 too (he was remarkably snubbed in 2013).
The 29-year-old is in his prime and heading to Toronto which ranked third in home run park factors at 1.31 according to ESPN. This is much better than the spacious Oakland Coliseum which ranked 21st with a .093. Guess where Donaldson hit his longest HR of 2014? Yup, Rogers Center. He cranked a 448 foot solo shot to right center that easily cleared the fence.
Let’s take a look at his 2014 season by the numbers. Donaldson hit 29 HR, drove in 98 RBI, had 93 R but hit a lowly .255 after hitting .301 in 2013. Overall, his counting numbers increased from 2013-2014 but his BA, OBP, SLG and OPS all dropped in 2014. What gives right?
It’s as simple as luck. Yes, luck. Donaldson’s BABIP went from .333 to .278, a 55 point drop. He also saw a 7% drop in his LD%. He had 19 less hits in 29 more at bats in 2014 but still drew 76 walks which ranked him 13th highest in all of baseball. So, again, it comes down to luck. Using ESPN’s Mark Simon’s hard hit rate calculation, the average hard hit rate in MLB is 16% and Donaldson’s is 21.4%. So Donaldson is hitting the ball hard at a higher rate than the average player, but the hits didn't follow. With a little more luck in 2015, Donaldson should see his numbers increase.
Donaldson has always hit better on the road, let’s take a look at his home vs. road splits.
| 2012-2014 | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Home | .259 | .332 | .445 | .777 |
| Away | .281 | .365 | .478 | .843 |
As you can see, Donaldson has enjoyed hitting away from Oakland Coliseum. He also gets to switch divisions where he will hit at Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park and Camden Yards 29 games this year as compared to hitting at Safeco Field and Angels Stadium 19 games.
The lineup that Donaldson is joining might be one of the best one through five in all of baseball. I project the lineup to look like this.
1. Jose Reyes
2. Russell Martin
3. Jose Bautista
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Donaldson
This lineup will give Donaldson a ton of run producing chances. Add this with the park factors of Rogers Centre, Donaldson looks to produce even bigger numbers than his first two full seasons.
In Summary
Where does he rank? Among third basemen last season, Donaldson tied for the most HR (29, Todd Frazier), was first in RBI (98), third in R (93) and fourth in OPS (.798). Against all position players, he finished in the top 15 in HR, RBI and R. This makes him a top three third basemen, and I would put him second behind Miguel Cabrera.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Donaldson becomes the top third baseman sometime this year. I’m all in on Donaldson, especially with the move to Toronto. The only thing I wish was that my beloved Cubs never traded him away - he would fit perfectly in that lineup. Oh well, typical Cubs move.
I project the following line for 2015 - 32 HR, 105 RBI, 90 R, .276 AVG
