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Last year's rookie QB class was slightly underwhelming. No one provided an Andrew Luck, or even Robert Griffin III from 2012 season, and the 2015 class doesn't look much better. While Winston was anointed the #1 pick in 2015 as early as September 2013, his 2014 season was disappointing. His Florida State team was labeled as a fraudulent 13-0, before getting annihilated by the Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl on the back of six turnovers.
As a result, his draft stock "slipped" slightly, with rumors swirling that the Bucs would trade down or pick Marcus Mariota. Ultimately, though, Winston heard his name called first on draft day and now has the burden of carrying the Buccaneers. So what will Winston do with his new team?
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The Buccaneers Situation
In 2014, the Bucs weren't quite as bad as their record suggests. Their point differential over the season was -133, which is still bad, but it's not 2-14 bad. The Titans, for example, had a point differential of -184. The Buccaneers had the point differential of a four-to-five-win team, instead of a two-win team, which suggests that some bad luck was involved in their record.
This means the Bucs aren't necessarily starting out from a "worst team in the league" position. Winston has young weapons in Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, along with Vincent Jackson acting as a talented WR2. A quarterback with Winston's talent should be able to put up decent numbers, considering that weapons Jackson and Evans were legit last year with Josh McCown behind center.
The Good & The Not So Good
If you want to sell yourself on Winston, all you have to do is look at his 2013 game against Pittsburgh. In his first collegiate start, Winston shredded the Panthers in a 41-13 romp. He was 25-of-27 for 356 yards and four TDs with no interceptions. For the less math-inclined, that's a 92.6% completion percentage, and although it was against a less-than-elite Pitt team, that's still impressive for a freshman in his first start.
Winston proceeded to go 29-1 in his college career; he knows how to win. While Winston can run when needed, he wasn't a Mariota-style zone read quarterback in college, and will be more of a traditional pocket passer in the NFL. He certainly has the body size and the strength to stand in the pocket and make his throw, as evidenced by this pass made in that same game against Pittsburgh.
The bad news is that Winston's one loss was very ugly, and was capped off by the ignominy of slipping on nothing and giving up a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. To say the wheels fell off the Seminoles' bus is an understatement--it was more like both axles exploded, and the wheels ricocheted off the rail on the side of the road, killing the driver instantly while the bus rocketed off a cliff and burst into flame.
While the loss wasn't entirely Winston's fault (then-freshman RB Dalvin Cook had his fair share of fumbles), it was hardly the type of going-out party a quarterback could want. His mechanics leave something to be desired as well - he can't throw a tight spiral due to a childhood break in one of the fingers on his throwing hand, and his form can look somewhat shot put-like at times.
Winston's off-field issues were also well-documented, which could scare people off of him in fantasy this year. Personally, I'm not sure the issues will translate to the NFL (yeah, I believe Winston stole those crab legs and wasn't just given them by an enthusiastic Publix employee), so it should be a non-factor.
2015 Fantasy Football Outlook
Ultimately, Winston isn't worth more than a late-round speculative pick at this point in standard fantasy leagues. And by late, I mean double-digit rounds, and only if you are 100 percent committed to having Jameis Winston on your team. The potential for a great rookie season is there, but Winston still needs to adjust to the NFL game.
He's not a once-in-a-generation player like Andrew Luck, so don't expect prodigal output from him. However, he could turn out to be a serviceable asset, much like how Teddy Bridgewater finished the 2014 season on a high note. If you believe in the potential Winston showed as a freshman, you can take him in the later rounds and see what happens. If you don't like his sophomore stats, let someone else take the gamble.
