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As to be expected, speculation was rampant on social media before Thursday night’s Steelers-Vikings game about whether to start Dalvin Cook or not.
Fantasy analysts were blitzed with questions. Fantasy leaguers went back and forth in their minds about their lineup choice, concerned about making a wrong decision that could torpedo their Week 14 outlook either way.
When it became apparent that Cook was going to start, with no indications of a limited workload, many Fantasy players still wondered how much of a risk he would be and if Alexander Mattison would still get a significant amount of work. There certainly were elements of unpredictability to the situation, but the decision was clear to me when I was asked about the situation. Here’s why.
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The Superstar Injury Rule
I told anyone who asked me, and I appreciate all of those who did, to start Cook and don’t let second thoughts make you proceed otherwise. Yes, fantasy players were worried about Cook being on a possible “pitch count” or getting re-injured on one big hit, but once the Vikings medical staff cleared him to play, I was not going to sit Cook. Because I have one rule about whether to play superstars with significant injury designations when it is reported they will play, and not have any reported limitations.
If the NFL team’s medical staff clears one of my top performers to play with a normal role and no reported limitations, then he is also cleared for my fantasy lineup.
Nothing in fantasy football works out all the time, but following this rule has worked out much more often for me than it has not. We don’t want to risk using a player who is not fully ready to play, but neither does an NFL team. I use the NFL team medical staffs as my prime source for decision-making in these situations. Leave it up to the team doctors, as head coaches often say. Let those medical experts be your experts.
Dalvin Cook looks good to go tonight. #TNF @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/9CI9NaAqOz
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) December 9, 2021
Thursday night’s game was a must-win affair for the Vikings, and this is obviously a must-win fantasy week for those looking up to sew up playoff berths or seedings. Minnesota did not want to risk their best player if he was not in proper condition in a game of major importance. A healthy Alexander Mattison would have served them better than a limited Cook.
205 rushing yards and two TDs later, it was apparent that this rule is to be followed whenever possible. You don’t want to let second thoughts make you miss out on a good or great game from one of your best players. There were no reports of a limited workload, so that was not a reason to sit Cook. As for re-injuring himself during the game, injuries happen at any time, and when you drafted Cook, the risk with him has always been built in. We all know he is more of a durability concern than some other top RBs. When someone drafts Dalvin Cook, they are taking the risks for a great reward. Health issues are frequently part of the fantasy package with Cook.
Even if it was another star fantasy player in this situation though, I would have advised to start him. Very often as fantasy players, we will second-guess these type of decisions. As with any starting choice, we can only make the most informed decisions possible to put ourselves in the best potential positions to win. When the information from an NFL team strongly suggests a player with a notable injury designation should see a normal workload or role, we should not hesitate to keep that player active for the week.
Nothing in fantasy football is absolute and applies to all situations. There will be some instances when you start a star player with a significant pregame injury designation and he disappoints or the injury is re-aggravated. However, you can’t be hesitant on making such a decision because the downside of reserving the player can often be too great, as anyone who sat Cook this week can tell you.
Should I Start Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley?
As a follow-up, one may ask, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley are star players expected to see normal workloads, but they are not producing as hoped, so how can they be started with confidence? Look at the disappointing production!
The rule states that I clear players for my team’s lineups if there are no “reported limitations.” Published reports and clear scouting indicate that Elliott and Barkley are not in optimum condition for the best possible production. So they are not must-start performers. You will get volume, but it appears there is little upside when starting both of them right now.
Late afternoon and night game decisions
When one of our top guys is not scheduled to play in the early window on Sundays (1 p.m. ET kickoffs), we are faced with more “fantasy anxiety.” Should we wait to see if he plays, or risk taking a zero?
I have two guidelines on this one. They are not hard and fast “rules”, though, because these situations are open to more interpretation as indicated in this section.
Do everything possible to never take a zero.
When in doubt, always opt for the healthy player.
So, for instance, what should we do about Deebo Samuel this week? Samuel is listed as questionable with a groin injury and was limited in practice on Friday. Being able to practice in a limited fashion does not give us any more confirmation of his availability. The 49ers play at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday.
#49ers Deebo Samuel participating in at least today’s stretch and could be on target to play vs #Bengals
No Elijah Mitchell or Dee Ford pic.twitter.com/qIqFweiPRd
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) December 10, 2021
So what should we do if Samuel’s status is not confirmed before the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs? The same can apply to any other player with a notable injury designation who is scheduled to play after the first wave of games.
You simply should not wait until near the later kickoff if you don’t have a quality option to pivot to in a later Sunday or Monday night game. If your decision is to start Samuel at 4:25 p.m. ET or Michael Gallup at 1 p.m. ET, and you still don’t have confirmation of Samuel’s status close to 1 p.m. ET, then go with Gallup. If a player is a game-time decision in a later matchup, don’t take the risk of a zero when you have a quality alternative with no health questions.
Of course, savvy fantasy leaguers will always look for possible pivots in the later games so they can have the best chance of playing an available star. So alternatives such as Van Jefferson and Jalen Guyton can certainly be rostered for possible fantasy activation. One rule to remember is to put the player in question in your flex spot, so you can pivot to a running back or tight end and expand the field of possible alternatives.
As we have already outlined, if a player like Samuel comes down to a game-time decision, start him without hesitation once he is cleared as long as there are reports of no possible limitations. Don’t worry about a player being a “decoy” if all reports indicate a normal workload or role.
Of course, all situations are to be considered individually and no fantasy rule or guideline applies to every single situation. But what we have shared here should help you to make more comfortable decisions on your top starters when they carry significant injury designations closer to game times.
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