X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Golf Course Preview for PGA Betting: Scouting the 2024 Procore Champinoship

Just two weeks after crowning our 2024 FedEx Cup Champion, the PGA Tour is back to start its race for the 2025 Season-Long title. The “Swing Season,” will be taking on a bit of a different role in 2024, as instead of being an optional, uncorrelated set of events for players to accrue FedEx Cup points for a playoff charge, this year’s fall swing will be a tryout for the Tour’s preeminent “in-betweeners.”

For players unable to break into the Top 50 of last month’s playoffs, the eight events on the docket from Napa Valley in September, to Sea Island in November will provide a potential launching pad into next season’s “Signature Events.” For names like Tom Kim, Min Woo Lee, and Jordan Spieth, (all of whom currently sit outside the top 50 of the year-end standings), the thought of missing out on these opportunities would be a huge blow to their potential 2025 ambitions.

The first stop of the fall swing comes to Wine Country: Napa Valley, California. And while we won't be getting an appearance from any of the Tour's cast of truly marquee names, six of the 24 players teeing it up in this month's President's Cup will be teeing it up -- including two-time winer at Silverado Max Homa, defending champion Sahith Theegala, World No. 6 Wyndham Clark, and a host of young stars still looking for their top-level breakthrough. This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Silverado Country Club and the 2024 Procore Championship!

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

The Golf Course

Silverado Country Club (North Course) - Par 72; 7,123 yards

Past Champions

  • 2023 - Sahith Theegala (-21) over S.H. Kim
  • 2022 - Max Homa (-16) over Danny Willett
  • 2021 - Max Homa (-19) over Maverick McNealy
  • 2020 -  Stewart Cink (-21) over Harry Higgs
  • 2019 - Cameron Champ (-17) over Adam Hadwin
  • 2018 - Kevin Tway (-14) over Ryan Moore & Brandt Snedeker (playoff)

 

Silverado by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

  • Average Fairway Width -- 26.4 yards; second narrowest on the PGA Tour
  • Average Driving Distance -- 286.8 yards; 14th lowest on Tour
  • Driving Accuracy -- 51.3%; lowest on Tour
  • Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.32; 11th lowest on Tour
  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.010); 14th toughest on Tour

With a scoring average that routinely sits in the bottom 10-15 on Tour in terms of difficulty, Silverado Country Club won't provide much of an impediment to players this week. However, one area where Silverado does pose a much more difficult test to the average Tour venue is in its fairway percentage.

At just 27 yards wide on average, Silverado features the second narrowest landing areas on Tour, and in conjunction with the generally firmer turf conditions in Northern California, we’ve seen the historical driving accuracy percentage around Silverado sit at just 51.8%.

While the driving accuracy here is substantially below the Tour Average (52% vs 62%), the GIR % sits slightly above the average tour stop (68% vs 66%). Some of that has to do with the shortish nature of this course and the wedges these guys will be routinely hitting into greens, but it also speaks to the ineffectual nature of this rough.

In 2011, Silverado had its infamous kikuyu rough removed in favor of a much more predictable blend of Rye grass & Kentucky Bluegrass. With the length only grown up to 2-3” at its longest, this rough is some of the easiest to play from on Tour - giving up the 4th most Birdies or Better from off the fairway.

This lack of encumbrance to wayward misses means players like Cameron Champ and Kevin Tway have had no trouble overpowering the narrow confines of Napa Valley, and in fact, 5 of the last 7 champions also ranked inside the top 15 in driving distance that week.

Now, before we go filtering entirely by Driving Distance in your modeling, I’d also like to point out that driving in general has been a below-average stat in terms of predictiveness on Fortinet leaderboards.

Adam Hadwin came just one shot short of Cam Champ in 2020 whilst losing strokes off the tee. Marc Leishman came fourth in 2022 losing 2.3 shots with his driver (67th out of the 70 players who made the cut). And recent leaderboards have been flooded with the likes of Sahith Theegala, Brendon Todd, Danny Willett, Taylor Montgomery, and Justin Lower: none of whom would be considered prolific drivers of the ball.

The generosity of Silverado’s rough certainly opens the door for bomb-and-gouge strategies to be employed, but the data tells us this tournament is far from won and lost off the tee. In fact, I’d expect a bulk of the critical strokes this week to be gained with finesse as opposed to power.

Silverado by the Numbers (Approach):

  • Green in Regulation Rate -- 68.5%; 13th highest on the PGA Tour
  • Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.004); 15th toughest on Tour
  • Key Proximity Ranges:
    • 125-150 yards (accounts for 18.4% of historical approach shots)
    • 100-125 yards (18.3%)
    • 75-100 yards (10.0%)

This “finesse” range that I speak of starts with the second shot at Silverado. With 8 of the 10 Par 4’s here measuring under 425 yards (and none measuring over 460), effective wedge play will be paramount when attempting to project players capable of creating birdie chances on these holes. Over 50% of historical approach shots have come from inside of 150 yards, and none of the 25-yard increments from 150-250 yards come close to their week-to-week average on the PGA Tour calendar.

This discrepancy makes wedge play the clear #1 skill to possess when forming my player pool this week -- especially considering that approach play has been over 2x as predictive as driving when projecting top five and 10 finishers. In fact, since 2019, only Cameron Champ has managed to capture this title while gaining less than three shots to the field with his approach play, and top five finishers on average have gained 3.7 shots to the field with their irons/wedges.

I'll be looking particularly closely at Proximity, Good Shot Rates, and Strokes Gained splits from <150 yards, as well as many of the recent wedge-intensive, short course results over the last three months (Deere Run, River Highlands, Detroit GC, etc.).

 

Silverado by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

  • Scrambling Percentage -- 60.1%; 2.6% above Tour Average
  • Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.007); 17th easiest on Tour
  • Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.019); 8th toughest on Tour
  • Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.015); 9th toughest on Tour
  • SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.012); 9th toughest on Tour

It'll be a common thread over the course of the fall swing, but with winning scores projected to touch 20-under and GIR percentages sitting comfortably in the upper-60s, around the green play has been largely mitigated in its overall predictiveness around Silverado CC. Top five finishers have gained just 16% of their total strokes with their short games (compared to 32% on Approach and 35% Putting), and five top-six finishers over the last four seasons here have attained that finish despite losing strokes to the field with their short games.

Of course, on a venue with four par fives, around the green play is an important proxy when assessing those most likely to continually take advantage of the course's most scoreable stretches. However, the old adage remains on the other 14 holes. Players that have to routinely scramble for par on Silverado's collection of 390-yard par four's aren't likely to be keeping pace with the breakneck scoring at the top of the projected leaderboard.

 

Silverado by the Numbers (Putting):

  • Average Green Size: 5,400 sq. feet
  • Agronomy -- Poa annua/bentgrass
  • 3-Putt Percentage: 2.5% (0.5% below Tour Average)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.003); 12th toughest on Tour

And finally, as we visit the state of California for the first time since February's West Coast Swing, the poa annua greens of Silverado CC will provide its most daunting test. For players not comfortable with its unpredictability, poa annua's uneven surfaces can cause havoc to the putting psyche. And although it's Golden State relatives in Pebble Beach, Riviera, and Torrey Pines all boast much more difficult greens statistically, players hailing from California have experienced every bit of the advantage associated with these three iconic Golden State stops.

Between Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Cameron Champ, and Brendan Steele, we've seen an incredible recent run of six of the last eight champions here at Silverado hail from California. It should come as no surprise, in a field with a shortage marquee names able to separate themselves with elite tee-to-green play, that a mental edge on the greens has provided a key difference to so many past champions.

I'll be looking particularly hardly at historic putting splits on poa annua (particularly here in California), and see a real avenue for targeting players who do hail from the area. It's been five years since a winner here at Silverado has gained less than four shots to the field on the greens, so any shortcut we can take in projecting this week's best putters could prove to be a decisive edge in the Championship's handicap.

 

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

  • Wedge play (specifically looking at Proximity Splits, Strokes Gained, and Good Shot Percentages from <150 yards)
  • Positive history on Poa Annua greens (special emphasis on other California courses like Riviera, Torrey Pines, and Pebble Beach)
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Birdie or Better Rates
  • Although driving as a whole will be devalued in my modeling, I do give a slight edge to distance over accuracy

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Ian by using the discount code BALLER when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

 

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Wyndham Clark

Although he came into the year on the back of titles at two of the Tour's most demanding venues (Quail Hollow and LACC), Wyndham Clark's 2024 has been largely highlighted by a repeated proficiency on the schedule's more intimate stops. From Pebble Beach to Harbour Town, River Highlands and Southwind, Wyndham has repeatedly raised his baseline when fairways begin to narrow, and when wedge play becomes the most coveted tool in a player's arsenal.

In fact, the argument can be easily made that Wyndham has turned himself into the best wedge player on the planet -- particularly from <100 yards. He ranks in the 98th percentile in both Strokes Gained/shot and Proximity to the hole over the last 12 months (a mark only surpassed by Scottie Scheffler in that time), and his Good Shot Percentage (categorized by an approach that finishes within five feet of the hole from <100 yards), sits at a whopping 23.3% -- beating the second-best mark in this category by 5.4%.

Wyndham's elite length will afford him many opportunities to flip wedges into these greens, and with the flat stick, he also boasts an incredible track record on West Coast poa annua: ranking 11th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 36 rounds, and recording the fourth-best putting week of his entire career on these very greens two years ago (+7.7).

He may not be a Californian by birthright, but a win at Silverado would fit very nicely next to his two previous victories in the Golden State (LACC & Pebble Beach). In a field that includes a few more marquee names than we're used to seeing this time of year (Sahith, Homa, Conners, Min Woo, etc.), I hope there's just enough noise in his recent results sheet to throw books of the scent of the Oregon Duck. Anything in the 16-1 range on Wyndham would make for a great start to the betting card.

 

Tom Hoge

Although Wyndham makes a great case for himself as the best wedge player from inside 100 yards, there is no other player on Tour that can argue against Tom Hoge as the class of the golfing world our other key wedge range. Hoge has been the PGA Tour frontrunner from 100-150 yards (a range that accounts for over 35% of Silverado's approach distribution), in each of the last two PGA Tour seasons, but over the last 12 months, the TCU-alum has really formed a hammer-lock in the advanced metrics.

Hoge leads the entire PGA Tour in Proximity to the Hole from 100-150 yards (17.4 ft.), and absolutely laps his contemporaries from a Strokes Gained Perspective. Over a 353-shot sample, Hoge has gained an average of 0.112 strokes per shot from this range -- a mark that bests the #2 player in this range (Lucas Glover), by the same margin as Glover is currently beating the #20 ranked player in this statistic (Hideki Matsuyama; +0.042).

If you've followed golf statistics for any amount of time, however, it won't surprise you to see Hoge written up for his approach play. But the case to be made for him this week extends far past his pedigree with the second shot. Hoge has gained strokes off-the-tee in five of his last six starts at Silverado CC, and sneakily, he's built a borderline elite profile as a poa annua putter.

Over his last 36 rounds, Tom ranks 10th in this field in putting on the four California poa courses, and his best result of the 2024 season to date (T3 at the Travelers Championship), came on a similarly wedge-intensive venue with bentgrass/poa annua greens. Already a champion at nearby Pebble Beach, and coming off of a year with three top-12 finishes in California alone, Silverado feels like the perfect venue for one of the game's premier ball-strikers to capture his second top-level trophy.

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Hunter

Jaguars List Travis Hunter as Starting Wide Receiver, Backup Cornerback
Kyle Tucker

Leaves With Calf Tightness on Tuesday
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Rest of EuroBasket
Max Scherzer

Blue Jays Confident Max Scherzer Will Make Sunday Start Despite Back Tightness
Roman Anthony

Leaves Early With Back Injury
Jared McCain

"On Pace" for Training Camp
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Done for the Year With Torn ACL
Luke Hughes

Devils Optimistic About Signing Luke Hughes
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Dylan Holloway

Good to Go for Start of Season
Nick Kurtz

Back in Action on Tuesday
Josh Morrissey

Fully Healthy for Start of Season
Dennis Hildeby

Signs Three-Year Extension With Maple Leafs
Nick Lodolo

Scratched With Illness
Dalton Kincaid

Role Not Expected to Grow?
Quinshon Judkins

Zero Chance Quinshon Judkins Plays Against Bengals?
Najee Harris

Says He's Expecting to Play Against Chiefs
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Departs Monday with Quad Injury
Franz Wagner

Collects Double-Double in Blowout Win
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Achieves Rare Numbers at EuroBasket
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Dominates Against Sweden
Stefon Diggs

Expected to Suit Up in Week 1
Kristaps Porzingis

Finding Form at EuroBasket
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Suffers Minor Injury at EuroBasket
DJ Moore

Bears Experimenting with DJ Moore in Backfield
Rome Odunze

Could Move All Around the Offense
Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales Comfortable With Panthers' Young Receivers
Quinshon Judkins

Not Considering NCAA Return
Dallas Goedert

Healthy for Week 1
Marvin Mims Jr.

Returns to Practice Monday
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Carted Off Monday With Knee Injury
Jason Adam

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Quadriceps Tendon
Victor Wembanyama

Looking "Quite Stellar"
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Scratched on Monday
Matthew Stafford

Expected to Start in Week 1
Edward Cabrera

Heading to Injured List With Elbow Sprain
Najee Harris

Cleared for Contact, Could Play in Week 1
Denny Hamlin

Ends Eventful Day at Darlington in Seventh Place
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Almost Earns a Top-Five Finish at Darlington
John Hunter Nemechek

has His Best 2025 Performance at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

Has An Underwhelming Performance At Darlington
Josh Berry

Crashes Early and Suffers A Playoff Setback at Darlington
Harry Ford

Called Up for Major-League Debut
Victor Scott II

Activated From Injured List
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Dealing With Hamstring Tightness, Expects to Play Monday
Giannis Antetokounmpo

"Staying in Milwaukee"
Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Agrees to a One-Year Contract with Milwaukee
Kyrie Irving

"Healing Up Great"
Dante Exum

Mavs Agree on a One-Year Deal
Jaylen Warren

Agrees to Two-Year Extension With Steelers
De'Von Achane

Practicing Monday, on Track to Play in Week 1
Quinshon Judkins

Could Report to Browns This Week
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs, Trent McDuffie Not Expected to Finalize Extension
Chase Elliott

Under Playoff Pressure After 17th-Place Darlington Finish
Kyle Larson

Despite Hendrick Mediocrity, Kyle Larson Remains Pretty Safe in Playoffs
Alex Bowman

Opening-Lap Crash and Botched Pit Stop May Have Sunk Alex Bowman's Playoff Hopes
Erik Jones

Darlington Master Erik Jones Comes Up Short but Still Finishes Third
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Impresses at Southern 500
Dameon Pierce

Ahead of Schedule, Ready for Season
Jordan Love

May Wear Thumb Brace During Season
Chicago Bears

Bears Head Coach Admits Offense Could Face Learning Curve
Matt Chapman

Leaves Early on Sunday, Expects to Play Monday
A.J. Brown

Says He'll Be Active For Season Opener
Luis Garcia

to Make Season Debut on Monday
Max Scherzer

Exits Due to Back Tightness
Taylor Ward

Exits Early After Collison
Sal Stewart

Reds Promoting Sal Stewart to Majors
Daniel Suarez

is A DFS Risk for Darlington Lineups?
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Noah Gragson

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Noah Gragson for Darlington?
Ty Dillon

is an Excellent Punt Option for Darlington DFS Lineups
Bogdan Bogdanović

Bogdan Bogdanovic to Miss the Rest of EuroBasket
Denny Hamlin

Picking Up Where He Left Off At Darlington
Kyle Larson

The Sky Is The Limit for Kyle Larson at Darlington
Ryan Blaney

a Strong DFS Play at Darlington This Weekend
Tyler Reddick

Shouldn't Be Overlooked at Darlington This Weekend
Alex Bowman

An Easy Place-Differential Play in DFS This Weekend
Ty Gibbs

Could Be Strong at Darlington This Weekend
Erik Jones

Has Best Darlington Qualifying Effort Since Last Win
Zane Smith

Hopeful For Another Solid Run At Darlington
Aroldis Chapman

Agrees to Contract Extension
Dallas Mavericks

Olivier-Maxence Prosper Waived by the Mavs
Lauri Markkanen

Dominant in Win Over Great Britain
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Leads Serbia to a Win
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Shines Versus Portugal
Jose Alvarado

"Good" After Recent Fall
Lauri Markkanen

Torches Sweden
Neemias Queta

Dominates in EuroBasket Opener
Kawhi Leonard

Clippers Not Allowing Kawhi Leonard to Play Back-to-Backs

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP