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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 9 NFL games on 11/7/21. His free picks against the spread, moneyline bets and NFL player prop.
If you're reading this, welcome my 200th article written here at RotoBaller! That's a pretty wild milestone for me, as this is now my fourth season writing. It might not seem like much, but consider me someone who always wanted to work in sports, then worked in sports and realized it wasn't "the life," and then found this avenue as a way to get the best of both worlds. I am forever grateful for the RotoBaller team for giving me my own small corner of the internet. Whether it be my KBO betting heater during COVID lockdowns or just writing up post-game news recaps, I have loved every second of writing here and to even imagine one person enjoying my writing has made it all worth it. So to tl;dr...thank you!
- 2021 Season: 10-15 (40%, -5.8u)
- Spread: 5-2, +2.4u
- Total/Team Total: 3-9, -6.2u
- Moneyline: 0-3, -2.3u
- Props: 2-1, +.3u
As of August, this is my fourth NFL season writing for RotoBaller and I couldn’t enjoy being a part of this amazing site with amazing writers and analysts. However, I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Sunday 11/7, 1 PM EST | O/U: 49.5
Talk about an offense with weapons that has really underachieved over the last handful of week. They're averaging just 16.2 points and 309 yards per game since Week 4 and now they get to face a Top 10 defense (by DVOA). Teddy Bridgewater isn't exciting at quarterback and based off recent performance, you can't even say he's solid. He did just get Jerry Jeudy back from injury but now his safety net, Noah Fant (COVID) could miss Sunday's game. This potentially leaves a lot of the weight the split backfield of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, who have complemented each other well, but until one guy can lead the unit, it's hard to expect much progress. Defensively, the Broncos have just three takeaways and have allowed over 340 ypg since Week 4, while ranking in the bottom half in both pass and rush DVOA this season.
Dallas is a little banged up right now, but still find themselves at 6-1 heading into two juicy non-conference matchups. Dak Prescott (calf) is expected to play, but CeeDee Lamb (ankle) and Amari Cooper (hamstring) are questionable. Luckily the Cowboys host one of the best running back duos in the NFL in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Should Dallas ease Prescott back in with a banged up receiving corps, they'll still have plenty of fire power facing a defense that has allowed 126 rushing ypg over the L3 and allow over 30 more rushing ypg on the road than at home. Defensively, Dallas clocks in at 6th in DVOA but are one of three teams averaging 2 takeaways per game. This sets up as a juicy matchup in Jerry's World.
Dallas is 7-0 covering the full-game spread this season, but I'm looking at the first half here. While the full-game number favors Dallas by 10, I see too much value in the first half number of 5.5. Dallas averages 16 ppg in the 1H at home, whereas Denver doesn't even average a touchdown. Value please!
Pick: Dallas First Half -5.5 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Sunday, 11/7, 1 PM EST | O/U: 50.5
Talk about a weird game in Week 8 with the Vikings and Cowboys, but before that game, the Vikings had won three of their last four. In each of those wins, they topped 380 ypg, including 120 rushing ypg behind Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. Now they just need some consistency from Kirk Cousins and his corps housing two of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. However, this week should give them a boost, as they currently average over 80 more passing ypg on the road than at home. Defensively, this Vikings team is one of the best against the pass by DVOA, ranking third. Facing a Ravens team that seems more geared to pass than run of late, this could be a big boost in slowing down Baltimore.
There might not have been a more humbling loss this year than when the Ravens got smoked, 41-17, by the Bengals in Week 7. Now, they're fresh off their bye week getting a pesky Vikings team with weapons on offense and defense. Lamar Jackson isn't on some other worldly pace, but he's leading the offense to over 415 ypg and 26.7 ppg. Every week, the running back scenario in Baltimore seems to shift, but of the last two games it's been the "Lamar Show" as Devonta Freeman isn't very good and Latavius Murray (ankle) is injured. Hence why there's been a bit more focus on the passing game lately, than the run. Defensively, Baltimore isn't the stout unit many think of. In their L3, they've averaged 417 ypg allowed and 24 ppg allowed, though that's pretty skewed towards the loss to Cincy.
Baltimore is a great team, they're leading the AFC North for a reason. However, this Minnesota team is better than a 3-4 record and despite them being on the road following Baltimore's idle week, I look for a big day from the Minnesota offense followed by the defense forcing some mistakes by Jackson in the passing game and keeping this one tight.
Pick: Minnesota +6 (-106, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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