RADIO
I should have known that I couldn't stay red hot for too long! I followed up Monday's clean sweep with a rather lackluster 5-6 outing on Wednesday. It could have been worse, but I hit a decent amount of props and managed to break even - which sometimes feels like a win when things go south. Anyways, we are back at it tonight with ten more games in the Association and no shortage of action. I'm going to roll with a few spreads and totals but will likely be leaning on props more heavily again tonight as we have been with the less predictable nature of the final week of regular-season games upon us.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, April 1, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 171-153-2
- Against the Spread 78-70-2
- Over/Under 34-43
- Player Props 59-40
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks
Indiana Pacers (+14.5) @ Boston Celtics (226 total)
There's no way I'm laying this many points with the Celtics, but the number of points scored in this game interests me tonight, specifically on the Celtics side.
The Pacers have been getting drilled the last few weeks as they continue to tank and have allowed the third-most points to opponents over their last ten games (122) in the league.
Boston's last two totals aren't indicative of how well they've played on offense. They mustered only 98 points against Miami (a top-5 defensive team) and 112 against Toronto (a top-10 defensive team) and they rested most of their starters for that game against the Raptors.
Their team totals from the five games before that were 134, 125, 132, 124, and 126 - all in wins. I think they get it done on offense tonight and get over their total of 120.5 in a dominant home win.
The Pick: Boston team total over 120.5 (-120 DK)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5) @ Denver Nuggets (239 total)
Another case of being a tad late here, but I grabbed the T-Wolves at +3.5 early this morning. While I think the Nuggets are probably the better team once Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. return, right now these teams are pretty even in terms of their overall play and recent play.
I was surprised to see that the Wolves actually lead the season series 2-1, and they've won the two most recent matchups between the teams. I have this game projected to go right down to the wire and for that reason, I'd rather side with the underdogs than the favorites. While the Nuggets are always a threat to win big behind the play of MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, they've looked vulnerable lately, especially on defense.
Denver allowed the tanking Pacers and Thunder to hang around before finishing them off late in games. They won't be so fortunate with Minnesota if they don't bring their A-game. I'm rolling with the road dogs here, and if you're feeling spicy then drop a little dough on their money line, too.
The Pick: T-Wolves +2.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans (-2) @ Los Angeles Lakers (234 total)
I was hoping to get this article out in time for you to get in on the Pelicans as underdogs with me, but alas I also had to do a DFS picks article and New Orleans has already moved from +2 to -2. Either way, I'm all over them here tonight. Yes, the Lakers get Anthony Davis back tonight but we have no idea for how many minutes or how effective he will be. LeBron is trying to play tonight, but his status is still up in the air. It's a back-to-back for L.A. as they lost to Utah last night, too.
The Pelicans came all the way back from down 20 to beat the Lakers (who had LeBron that night) to cover. I hope they don't need to do that again, but I think they'll likely play better from the jump. Give me the Pelicans here. Sorry if you missed out on the early line movement. If LeBron suits up it will probably be a battle, but both teams are motivated to win to make the play-in game and I just think New Orleans is better at this point.
The Pick: Pelicans -2 (-110)
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
Trey Lyles over 26.5 PRA (-110 DK) - the players from this game will likely see their props increase during the day, which is why I wanted to grab some Sacto guys earlier. Lyles just went 24-7-3 against the Rockets in 36 minutes on Wednesday, allowing him to clear this number with ease.
Damian Jones over 21.5 points/rebounds (-105 FD) - Like Lyles, Jones feasted on Houston's weak interior and posted 24 points and 9 boards. I'm ignoring the season-high five assists and going with just the P/R prop here as Jones isn't usually much of a passer.
Al Horford over 22.5 PRA (-110 DK) - Big Al is now the starting center for the Celtics and he has a great matchup here against the lowly, tanking Pacers. In a much tougher matchup, he just posted 25 PRA against Miami and he's an elite passer for a big man. Indiana is allowing the second-most points to bigs and fifth-most assists over the last two weeks.
Jalen Green over 22.5 points (-110 DK) - I was expecting this number to come in at 23 or 24 but his prop went up only one point after another 30+ point performance on Wednesday against the same team! Nothing has changed here, so attack this bet today with vigor. He's taken 24 and 25 shots the last two games, people, with 60% of those coming from behind the arc!
Tomas Satoransky over 5.5 assists (-135 DK) - I really thought we'd see this jump to 6.5 today and it still might, but grab it now and run. Sato has hit this number in each of his starts since entering the starting lineup and has 23 assists in his last two games. The matchup is much tougher against Dallas, but he's so pass-first that he'd much rather assist on a bucket than make one. I think he cruises past this number again.
Will Barton over 24.5 PRA (-120 DK) - Will Barton is a streaky player at times, but right now he's trending up in a big way. He's averaging 18-5-5 over his last four games and his PRA prop doesn't reflect the recent success at all. In a high-scoring affair, I expect him to be very much involved in a big offensive output by Denver.
Jonas Valanciunas over 29.5 points/rebounds (-120 DK) - Jo Val has been getting it done even with Ingram back, posting 19 points and 11.5 boards in the two games since Ingram returned. He's been getting assists lately, too, but I'd rather take the discount on the P/R line here being under 30 while his PRA is 32.5 on most sites.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: Phoenix/Dallas/Toronto ML Parlay (-103 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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