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Things didn't quite go my way on Monday as I missed both spread bets and my total, but I was saved by both player props cashing and we forge ahead to another slate tonight undaunted. MLB fans got some bad news yesterday (and MLB content creators like myself, too) but the good news is we still have six weeks of regular-season games to wager on in the NBA and I will do my best to keep this column going during the playoffs, too!
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, March 2, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 105-99-2
- Against the Spread 58-48-2
- Over/Under 24-35
- Other/Props 23-16
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Indiana Pacers (-1) @ Orlando Magic (231.5 total)
Maybe I am a glutton for punishment, but I am going right back to this game. I said no more betting on bad teams, but with Malcolm Brogdon set to play tonight, I don't think the Pacers are in the same "bad team" category as the Magic. The Pacers owe us money and it's time to collect on that debt!
Orlando won on Monday and pulled away late, but the Pacers led for much of the first half and still have the better roster in my opinion. They've already moved to one-point favorites here after opening up as underdogs and there simply aren't very many decent spreads to bet on tonight. I'm putting my faith in Brogdon's presence elevating the entire Indiana team and I expect a much different result in this one.
The Pick: Pacers -1 (-110)
Charlotte Hornets (+3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (218.5 total)
I'm a bit apprehensive to bet on my hometown Cavs but this is the other spread that stands out to me tonight. Darius Garland is currently questionable for this game and my gut says he plays, though if you wait for his status to be confirmed you're missing your chance at getting the Cavs at this number. If Garland is ruled in, you'll see this line move a few points in their direction and if he's ruled out then we are placing our faith in Brandon Goodwin, Cedi Osman, and Isaac Okoro to continue to pick up his slack in the backcourt.
The Cavs have elite ATS this season and are very good at home. Even if Garland doesn't play we could see them still pull this out. They hung with Minnesota a few nights ago (the same team that just handled the Warriors last night) and I think their size will give the Hornets fits as we've seen them be dominated by big men often this season.
It's a risky bet without knowing Garland's status, but I am buying Cleveland early in the day here and hoping for the best. This is a scrappy, resilient team that can still win tonight and I've had more success picking on Charlotte than most teams this season. I'm just not a believer in what the Hornets are doing this year and their early-season success seems really fluky at this point.
The Pick: Cavs -3 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Sacramento Kings (+6) @ New Orleans Pelicans (235.5 total)
Okay, we are taking a stab at team total tonight and I promised myself no more unders but the numbers are pointing me towards another one here in this game.
This total continues to rise and I'm probably in the minority here but it seems unwarranted to me. The Kings are only averaging 110 points a game this season but have improved to 115 per game in the seven games since Sabonis arrived from Indiana. That number is buoyed by two big outings (131 against OKC and 132 against Minnesota) against really bad defenses. The Pelicans' defense hasn't been nearly as bad as people might realize (19th overall in defensive rating and 9th over the last ten games).
New Orleans has allowed an average of only 107 points per game over their last ten games and their opponents have only scored more than 114 times just three times.
I'm taking the Kings under their team total of 114.5 here. I still like this game for DFS, but I don't think that it's goes completely nuclear like the total suggests that it could.
The Pick: SAC team total UNDER 114.5 (-110)
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM Update
Rudy Gobert over 2.5 blocks/steals (-135)
Jonas Valanciunas over 32.5 PRA (-120)
Nikola Jokic over 2.5 blocks/steals (+130)
Jarrett Allen over 28.5 points/rebounds (-110)
Malcolm Brogdon over 4.5 rebounds (+140)
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
The Pick: No Parlays or Teasers tonight!
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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