RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We have a relatively small six-game slate to take you into your holiday weekends.
Continuing with the theme this season, I'll be targeting a few games and giving my best angle. On Wednesday, I went 1-2 on my single-game picks. The Knicks took care of business in the first half against the Nets. Joel Embiid's 50-point game unfortunately helped the Sixers and Timberwolves hit the over. The Lakers didn't show up to play in Chicago. I've been finding totals very difficult to predict lately, and for now, I'll be retiring full-game totals. I do like sticking to first quarters, halves, spreads, etc.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, moneyline parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 22. Follow me on Twitter/X @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Dallas Mavericks (+9.5) at Houston Rockets (225 total)
Both of these teams come into this game off of losses. Houston lost a high-scoring affair at home to Atlanta on Wednesday. Dallas lost at home to the scorching Los Angeles Clippers. I know Houston has been great ATS at home (8-1-1 according to Action Network), but I like Dallas in this spot. The Rockets had a really nice stretch this season, but they are starting to fade back into the team a lot of people assumed they would be.
During this three-game losing streak, their offense hasn't been the problem. It's their defense that has taken a major hit. For the season, Houston is in the top six in defensive rating and second in lowest points allowed per game. In the last three games, only the Pistons gave up more points per game. It could just be a bad stretch, or it could be them regressing, which was likely to happen.
In December, Dallas has seen their offense drop down a bit. Despite the dip, they are still averaging 118.0 points per game, which ranks inside the top 15. On the season, Dallas ranks sixth in offensive rating.
The Mavericks haven't been too bad on defense this month. They are just outside the top 15 in points allowed per game. That doesn't sound great, and it's not, but for an offensive-centric team, it's definitely encouraging. Dallas gets a good matchup against a Rockets team that has been in the bottom 10 in scoring virtually all season.
Luka Doncic is out, but rather than get scared off, I'm going to embrace it. It's a weird league, and just because Luka is out doesn't mean others can't step up. They aren't flashy, but players like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. have played solid as of late. Grant Williams and Jaden Hardy are capable players. It'll be a good opportunity for them to get an extended run and maybe surprise people by keeping it close.
It's a gross pick, but it's good to get uncomfortable every once in a while. Public money will likely be all over Houston in this one.
The Pick: Mavericks +9.5 (-112 DraftKings)
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Denver Nuggets (-4.5) at Brooklyn Nets (231 total)
I faded the Nets in the first half against the Knicks on Wednesday night, and I'm going to go against them again tonight. I like the Nuggets in the first quarter tonight. According to EV Analytics, this team is 20-9 ATS in first quarters this season. On the road, they are 10–6.
Denver is a top-eight first-quarter scoring team. They shoot the best field goal percentage and are also in the top eight in three-point percentage. The 2.9 threes they make on average in the first quarter are low, but the Nets give up a lot of early looks from deep.
Brooklyn is in the bottom six for three-point attempts allowed and made in the first quarter. The Knicks hit three three-pointers and won the first quarter 32-20 on Wednesday night. Denver hit three three-pointers in their 29-20 first quarter victory over Toronto on Wednesday.
What Brooklyn does well is stop points in the paint. The Nets are in the top three limiting points in the paint in the first quarter. Denver is in the top three in first quarter paint scoring this season. Denver also has Nikola Jokic, who can dominate in the paint when he chooses to. I give the Nuggets' offense the edge over the Nets' defense.
The Nuggets have the best defensive rating in first quarters this season. If you only want to use road stats, they fall to eighth, which is still really good. They are allowing the fewest points in the first quarter and the fifth fewest on the road. Needless to say, Denver has shown they can figure it out in any setting.
Brooklyn is an average first-quarter scoring team and in the bottom five in field goal percentage. They do shoot the three well and knock down 3.8 threes at 38.3 percent. To counter that, the Nuggets allowed the fewest three-point makes and fifth-fewest attempts in the opening 12 minutes.
Whatever the Nets throw at the Nuggets, I anticipate Denver being able to answer.
The Pick: Nuggets First Quarter -1.5 (-110 PointsBet)
Favorite ML parlay: DEN + MIA (+181 DK)
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