RADIO
It's always easier getting up to break down a slate of games after a winning night, that's for sure. Last night was actually my second strong night in a row and I was one point away from a clean sweep but the Miami-GSW game fell just short of its total. My record below only reflects the picks made here in this very article on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and I'm coming off a strong 5-1 day on Monday where the only miss was once again - a game total. The Kings pulled their win out and covered for us despite me jinxing De'Aaron Fox by using him as the cover photo athlete and both our underdogs (Pacers and Rockets) covered their wide spreads.
We have several of what I am calling "we just saw this game" matchups today as the NBA schedule early on has been redundant and we are getting some rematches between teams only days apart. That kinda sucks for betting, and it's far too easy to get lulled into the trap of "I bet we get a similar result" when there are so many variables that may have changed since the first game, even if it was just a few days ago. Let's give it a go, though, and see if we can stay hot this week, shall we?
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 20-18
- Against the Spread: 9-6
- Game/Team Totals: 3-6
- Moneyline Parlay: 3-3
- Teasers: 4-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (-2) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (220.5 total)
This is just one of the "we just saw this game" contests on the slate tonight with HOU-LAC, PHI-WAS, MIA-SAC, and DET-MIL being the others. Again, I am not sure why the NBA is doing this but I don't love it. But I have to deal with it and so do you, so let's just try to accept it and move on (am I talking to you, or just talking to myself again?).
Anyways, I have to pick the Cavs here. And let me just explain something. I don't want to pick the Cavs! They are my team and the last thing I want to do is jinx them in a big spot or get overconfident about their season outlook after a strong 5-1 start. But when the Cavs pop as the best value play on the slate, I am going to play them! They've been fantastic ATS this year (sound familiar?) and are still being undervalued against good teams it appears.
They just beat this Boston team in overtime behind huge games from Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert, and while I wouldn't bank on 40+ points from LeVert again, Mitchell has looked superb on a nightly basis and has been the reason for the early season success of Cleveland.
What tips me further in favor of Cleveland is the possible return of Darius Garland, who was Cleveland's most important cog in their machine last season. He's still questionable, but he practiced in full yesterday and you'd have to think he had this game circled as the one he'd like to return for as it will be at home against the defending Eastern Conference champs.
The Cavs' biggest weakness this year has been when Mitchell has been off the floor as they don't have Ricky Rubio back yet and have had to rely on LeVert and Cedi Osman to run the offense. If we get a healthy Garland tonight, we should see him and Mitchell staggered so that Cleveland doesn't go through an extended offensive funk that they can be prone to doing. Kevin Love is playing well, Dean Wade has been a nice surprise in his role, and the length of Allen and Mobley should continue to give the Cavs an advantage in the paint. I'm backing the Cavs at home at plus value, let's go!
The Pick: CLE -ML (+105 DK)
New Orleans Pelicans (-3) @ Los Angeles Lakers (229.5 total)
There are three things that are guaranteed in life. Death, taxes, and the betting against the Lakers - am I right? All joking aside, the Lakers have been abysmal this year despite having two of the league's top-10 players in LeBron and AD. They're 1-5 and just recently finally picked up their first win of the year. AD is questionable tonight but did play in that win so I would expect him to play. And even with Brandon Ingram out for the Pelicans, I still think they are deserving road favorites.
Set aside the star players for a second (CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, LeBron, Davis) and look at the rest of these rosters. The Pelicans have depth and talent at every position. They really grabbed my attention when they pulled off a tough win against the Mavs last week without Zion, Ingram, or Herbert Jones.
Jonas Valanciunas is perenially underrated and forms a formidable frontcourt duo with a healthy Zion. McCollum is a relentless player who always finds a way to get buckets, and Trey Murphy is an emerging star and deadly three-point assassin. Larry Nance Jr., Jose Alvarado, and Devonte' Graham are all capable role players off the bench too.
The Lakers' talent level drops off in a big way after their stars with Russell Westbrook being a shell of his former self and guys like Patrick Beverley and Lonnie Walker IV having to play big minutes in the backcourt. Kendrick Nunn couldn't outplay Troy Brown Jr., who is now starting next to Beverley in the backcourt. And we get...Austin Reaves and...Matt Ryan (not the football player) off the bench?
The Pelicans have lost just two games this year, one of those a one-point loss to a surprisingly good Utah team and then recently to an excellent Phoenix squad. They are the better team and I think they can cover a relatively small spread here against the Lakers.
The Pick: NO -3 (-110 DK)
Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (228.5 total)
This one is probably the toughest pick I am making today as my heart aches to go against the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that made me a lot of money last year against the spread. But this version of Memphis has not been the same as what we saw last season. They've been battling injuries to Ja Morant and Desmond Bane (among others) and won't have Jaren Jackson Jr. for a while yet.
The Blazers are without their best player here tonight, Damian Lillard, which would normally disqualify them, but there is something pretty cool going on in Portland this year. The Blazers are 5-1 to start the year with their only loss coming to a tough Miami team in the game where Lillard was hurt and left early. They promptly whipped up on Houston 125-111 in their first game without Dame and while beating Houston isn't some kind of amazing feat, it was good to see their offense continue to click without him.
Anfernee Simons is a budding star in this league and I will be the first to admit that I was probably wrong about him this year. I thought that his production last year was merely a product of him playing on a bad tanking team as the lead scorer and that he would struggle as the #2 scorer next to Lillard at shooting guard this year. Simons had 30-5-7 in that win against Houston while center Jusuf Nurkic added 27 points and 15 boards.
Simons and Nurkic are flanked by two excellent veteran wings, Josh Hart and Jerami Grant. And while there are still some questions about the depth of the bench other than Justise Winslow, I think Portland has enough good mojo going and talent to keep up with Memphis, who has looked like a shell of themselves on defense this year.
It should be a high-scoring affair and you never know when Ja Morant can put a team on his back and score 40+ points, but I am backing the home dogs here as those two losses to Utah by Memphis have me feeling like something is off with the Grizzlies right now.
The Pick: POR +3.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
LA Clippers (-5) @ Houston Rockets (222 total)
Spoiler alert, we are going UNDER here in this one. And while the recent 95-93 result from Monday is one small piece of evidence for this pick, it's certainly not the only data that points to this conclusion.
The Clippers have the largest negative +/- margin against their totals in the league at -15.7 and all but one of their games have gone under. It has a lot to do with their strong defense, led by PG13, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington, and the rest of the gang. But it also has to do with their very poor offensive efficiency as they are near the bottom of the league (with the Lakers) in offensive rating.
With Kawhi Leonard sitting out so much early on, it's been up to Paul George to do most of the heavy lifting on offense. George scored 35 of the Clippers' 95 points on Monday with only two other players (Zubac and Morris) in double digits. Reggie Jackson and Norman Powell have been awful and shot a combined 5-22 in that game.
Perhaps we see a slight correction from LA tonight as John Wall will play and upgrade their second unit and Covington could return to the mix, but I don't think it's likely we see some kind of offensive explosion. The Rockets have been better on defense this year than last, which helps our case a bit while being below-average on offense.
This game is shaping up to be another ugly one. Maybe we don't see it go under 200 again, but I have it pegged around 210 which is by far the widest margin between my projections and the current totals.
The Pick: UNDER 220 (-110 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Dallas + Toronto + Milwaukee = (+113 DraftKings)
Underdog 4.5 point Teaser: Cleveland +6.5, Portland +8, Houston +9.5 = (+150 DraftKings)
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