RADIO
It is Wednesday, September 7th, 2022. We are under a month left in the baseball season. While some are going into football mode, I've got your back and am staying in baseball mode until the season is over! There are 17 games on this slate with some double headers going on. If you are looking to get involved in some MLB action, this time of year is one of my favorites and it isn't too late!
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 7| Moneyline: TAM -165
BOS: Nick Pivetta| TAM: Jeffrey Springs
The thing I ask myself is why is this game at just seven runs? If you don't want to read the analysis, just go ahead and bet the OVER 7 runs at +100.
But seriously though? Seven runs?
Nick Pivetta has a 4.37 ERA and a 4.20 xFIP. He is what he is: average at best. Jeffrey Springs has a 2.62 ERA but his xFIP is 3.18. Pretty good, solid, but not elite or anything like that. He's maybe the fourth or fifth-best pitcher pitching today.
Offensively, the Red Sox hit lefties better than average with a 112 wRC+, a .161 ISO, and a .333 OBP. Yes, this is a good lefty but many of the hitters in that lineup have good splits. Tampa Bay is an average offense; they are near the middle of the league in OBP, wRC+, and ISO against right-handed pitching.
Seven runs? Are we sure this game will be under seven runs, though?
With the bullpens, Boston has the 10th-highest bullpen xFIP at 4.08. They have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA at 4.60. That's Pittsburgh Pirates territory they are in. It's a disaster. Tampa Bay has the eighth-best bullpen ERA but their bullpen xFIP of 3.85 is middle of the league.
At +100, I have to go over the total. Nick Pivetta could get blown up. The Boston bullpen could get blown up. Jeffrey Springs could have an off night and Boston could put up a few runs. Thinking this game could be 5-3 or more isn't that crazy to me. Maybe I'm wrong and we'll laugh about it tomorrow. But at these odds, I gotta go with it.
Pick: Boston OVER 7.0 Runs (+100), BetMGM Sportsbook 0.5 Units
Sports Betting Promo Offers
Featured Promo: Get any VIP Betting Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: NYY -155
MIN: Louie Varland| NYY: Domingo German
This is another head-scratching total run line for me. Seven runs yet again, in an afternoon game at Yankee Stadium with a Louie Varland making his MLB debut? What?
First off, as a Minnesota Twins fan, I have been scarred by the Yankees. I assume the Yankees will score like eight runs per game just on their own, regardless of how good the pitcher on the mound for the Twins might be. It stinks but that's just the way it feels.
In all seriousness though, Louis Varland has 21.1 career innings in Triple-A. At that level, he had a 1.69 ERA and a 3.37 xFIP. Most of his pitching was at the Double-A level this season with 105 innings pitched. There, he had a 3.34 ERA and a 4.31 xFIP.
Call me crazy but I definitely have concern that the 4.31 xFIP pitcher in Double-A could get teed off on against the Yankees today.
For New York, Domingo German could have a tough day too. He currently has a nice-looking 3.12 ERA but his xFIP is 4.62 and his SIERA is 4.58. It may not happen today but he should see some regression to those stats. Seven runs are way too low for this pitching matchup.
I would wait until lineups are posted, as this game is Game 1 of a doubleheader and both teams could rest players. If the lineups look especially weak for this game, I'd pass on it.
Pick: OVER 7 Runs (+120), Caesar's Sportsbook, 0.5 Units.
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
