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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/21/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
We have a nine-game MLB schedule going down on this Thursday afternoon and evening and, as you know, there's always plenty of value to be had. It's the best time of the MLB season with playoff races in full flight with several teams playing crucial games each and every night.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Thursday, September 21, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @BKemp17.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL (-180)
BAL: Grayson Rodriguez | CLE: Hunter Gaddis
The Baltimore Orioles continue to stare down an AL East crown as they take their efforts to Cleveland to kick off a four-game set with the spiraling Guardians.
The O's will send young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez to the rubber for this one as the right-hander should see improved results moving forward. He sports a 4.53 ERA on the season but also a 4.13 FIP, 3.83 xFIP, and a 4.05 SIERA across 21 starts on the season while also posting a tidy 1.96 ERA across eight starts at the Triple-A level.
It appears his positive regression train is already on the move as Rodriguez hurled eight scoreless frames with zero walks against seven strikeouts his last time out while he's now allowed just four earned runs across his last three starts spanning 18 1/3 innings of work.
Getting the ball for the home team is fellow rookie right-hander Hunter Gaddis. The 25-year-old has pitched just 39 innings in the big leagues this season and sports a 4.85 ERA alongside a 5.31 FIP, 5.79 SIERA, and a 6.5% K-BB%, all of which leave plenty to be desired. Gaddis has also been rocked for an ugly 6.14 ERA/6.58 FIP across his 73 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season.
Not only do the Orioles easily sport the offensive advantage over a weak Guardians offense, their bullpen has been electric. They'll enter this one sporting baseball's fifth-ranked bullpen, as per their 3.60 ERA, while their 0.86 HR/9 from their relievers is tied with the Yankees for the best mark in the big leagues.
It certainly appears as if the Orioles should be able to cruise to victory in Thursday's series opener.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 run line (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland A's
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: DET (-180)
DET: Tarik Skubal | OAK: Luis Medina
The Tigers and A's kick off a four-game set themselves tonight in Oakland as both clubs play out the remainder of subpar seasons.
The Tigers will send left-hander Tarik Skubal to the hill for his 14th start of the season and the first 13 have gone quite well. The former ninth-round pick has turned in a 3.25 ERA on the season while he has also worked to a stellar 2.28 FIP, 2.99 SIERA, and a massive 25.9% K-BB% across his 69 1/3 innings on the season. The southpaw has allowed all of one earned run on five hits and one walk against 18 strikeouts across his last two starts spanning 12 innings of work.
The A's will send 24-year-old Luis Medina to the bump for this one and his season hasn't gone so well. Medina owns a 5.56 ERA across 21 appearances (15 starts) while also posting a 4.96 FIP, 4.81 SIERA, and a 9.8% K-BB% across 98 2/3 frames on the campaign. He hasn't gone deeper than 4 2/3 innings over his last six outings (four starts), meaning a weak A's bullpen that sits in a tie for last in baseball with a 5.28 ERA will get plenty of work in this one.
Again, we're targeting a road team on the run line as Skubal should be able to steer his club to a relatively easy win tonight in Oakland.
Pick: Tigers -1.5 run line (-102, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, Rotoballers! Let's cash some bets and make some money today!
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