RADIO
There are "only" 52 games on our Saturday slate. Well...51 now. The SMU-UCF game was moved to Wednesday so I have an excuse to watch football on Wednesday as well! I'll never argue with that! I had a decent start to conference play last week, getting above .500 on the season again
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I have a pretty good line on Arkansas, but I probably need to stay away from Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion for a while. My nemesis Texas has been the source of my worst loss of points so far this year. Go figure!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 5 (10/1)
(4)Michigan(-10.5) at Iowa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I was honestly expecting the line to be higher than this. I'm glad it's not. My question here is whether Iowa's defense – which has outscored the offense this year – can score another touchdown. I don't think so and I doubt the offense gets anything more than a field goal here. I'm going Michigan and I'm not really concerned about it. The half caused me to lower the bet a touch though.
(7)Kentucky at Mississippi(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has jumped even though Chris Rodriguez will be back for Kentucky. If Will Levis really is this supremely talented future NFL quarterback that ESPN thinks he is, this is the time to prove it. I picked Kentucky in Pick Em, so you know I'm happy with this line. I still like the Wildcats outright.
(18)Oklahoma(-6.5) at TCU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The oddsmakers know the same things that I do: Oklahoma doesn't lose back-to-back games. They haven't in this century. I like the over 68.5 more than the spread. Honestly, I'm not sure Oklahoma wins this by more than a field goal. I'm still picking my team, but I'm likely not betting this one.
Purdue at (21)Minnesota(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the kind of line that Minnesota usually doesn't cover. However, this is not your usual Gophers team. Tanner Morgan has finally taken that next step, and I am really disappointed that Chris Autman-Bell isn't around to reap the rewards. I thought this line would be higher considering Aidan O'Connell is out for Purdue again. I'm glad it's not. I feel pretty good about Minnesota for anything under 14.
Texas Tech at (25)Kansas State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I feel sorry for you if you don't have ESPN+ because you're going to miss another great game since ESPN can't be bothered to put the Big 12(10) on regular TV. This is too high by at least half a point. I wouldn't be shocked if Tech won outright since their run defense is strong. They have allowed under 100 yards per game on the ground this year. As good as Adrian Martinez looked last week, I'm still not convinced that he can throw to win, especially with worse receivers than he had last year at Nebraska. Give me Tech. The Kansas State offensive scheme isn't built to score points in a hurry.
Georgia State at Army(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like that half at all. I don't like it enough that I'll take the Panthers. I wouldn't touch this though.
Illinois at Wisconsin(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line opened at -10, and I get it. I really do. The Illini haven't won in Madison since 2002 and have only won twice in 12 tries since. This is not your dad's Wisconsin team or even your older brother's. I still like the Illini outright. Graham Mertz can't throw to win and I'm thinking they will have to against a strong Illinois team.
Louisville(-15.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping that the line wouldn't jump this far. I bet it when it opened at -13.5, but I'm still not all that scared by it. Boston College is in trouble right now. The defense is getting gashed and Phil Jurkovec isn't making good decisions like he did last year. I still like Louisville, but I'm lowering the bet.
Navy at Air Force(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points for an option team, but I've watched Navy enough to know that they are a mess right now. Still, this is a rivalry and is part of arguably the most coveted trophy in college sports. Give me Navy. They aren't winning, but this feels high.
Temple at Memphis(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels like a lot of points. Can E.J. Warner summon some of that magic that his father was famous for? Maybe, but I damn sure wouldn't bet on it. Give me Memphis.
Texas State at James Madison(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a James Madison team that thrashed MTSU in Murfreesboro earlier this year. You know...the team that just went down to Miami and beat the Hurricanes by double digits. I thought this was kind of high, but it really isn't. Give me the Dukes.
Oregon State at (12)Utah(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's more juice on the Beavers here and I won't argue that. Oregon State is a scrappy team and their defense impressed the hell out of me last week. The problem here is that the Utah offense is more polished than USC. USC has more talent than anyone else in the country on offense, including Alabama. That doesn't mean they're the best. They're still learning how to play with each other. Given the rough emotional loss for the Beavers and having to go on the road, I think they lose this, but by how much? I really don't like that half. Give me Oregon State.
Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't know exactly what the Eagles are right now, but I do know exactly what UMass is: terrible. Give me the Eagles.
Northern Illinois(-4.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low after what the Huskies did in Lexington last week. I'll take NIU.
East Carolina(-9.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's really hard for me to erase how bad USF looked in Louisville last week. However, they're at home this week...kind of. The game has been moved across the state to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. I still feel like this USF team has the talent to at the very least hang around in this one, if not win outright. Give me the Bulls and redemption!
(2)Alabama(-17.5) at (20)Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arkansas hasn't beaten the Tide in 15 years...and they play each other every year. This might be the best chance that Arkansas has, but I'm still not sure it's a good one. The interesting thing that I find about this line is that you can get even odds at 17.5, but the juice is 115 if you take it at 17. I think I'm going Arkansas at home because I don't trust that half. I'm likely not touching this one though.
Rutgers at (3)Ohio State(-39.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Rutgers likes to grind, but it's hard to grind when you can't move the ball. Ohio State covered this against Toledo because the Rockets kept going at them. They didn't cover against Arkansas State, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba missed that game. I'll take Rutgers just in case the Buckeyes get bored, but there's no way I would bet this.
(9)Oklahoma State at (16)Baylor(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place. I've seen it even in a couple of places. One has the Cowboys favored. I've seen Baylor as high at -4...and those were all this morning. I'm not as torn on this as the bettors are. I trust Spencer Sanders and the Oklahoma State defensive line. Give me the Cowboys.
Northwestern at (11)Penn State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was afraid of this. Penn State covered this line at Auburn and Northwestern has losses against FCS Southern Illinois and Duke, not to mention becoming the only Big Ten(14) team to get MAC'ed this year. Give me Penn State. This is not a good Northwestern team right now.
(22)Wake Forest vs. (23)Florida State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a big line for teams that are one spot apart in the polls. Actually, I guess it isn't. The consensus is that home-field advantage is worth 7 points in college. It makes sense, right? The band, the fans, the rowdy student sections. NFL fans don't get it. Their palaces hold 40-50k. You can pack in at least 80,000 people into most power-five football stadiums...and most of them hate you, or at least the uniform you wear. There are more than a dozen stadiums that can top six figures in people. Florida State has looked really good with Jordan Travis at the helm and Wake just suffered a really tough loss. I'll take Florida State.
Iowa State(-3.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas has already paid off the people that bet the over on their win total this year. I thought 2.5 was really low, but I didn't expect Kansas to enter October among the undefeated. This is going to be a tough game for Kansas. This is a young team, and at some point, they are going to make a fatal mistake to lose a game or three. That said, Lawrence is packing them into the stadium. It was a sellout last week and should be again. And good for them! I've been in that stadium when you could sit wherever you wanted because there were maybe 15,000 people there. Those days are gone. Give me Kansas.
Fresno State(-24.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The general feeling is that Jake Haener will still be out after being carted off the field against USC almost two weeks ago. This being college, we have no idea how serious the injury is, but Fresno has hinted that it won't. Logan Fife is a capable quarterback, so I still like Fresno here. I probably won't bet it though.
Michigan State at Maryland(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is surprising. The line opened with the Spartans favored. I don't like it when there is this big of a swing. I like Maryland and they are going to be able to get some traction here. The Spartans' pass defense leaves a lot to be desired and Maryland has a really good passing game. Give me the Terps.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hokie offense is going to look better than it has all year. North Carolina isn't beating anyone by more than a touchdown right now with that "defense." Give me Tech.
Central Michigan at Toledo(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line opened at -7 and is there everywhere but FanDuel...but you have to pay a lot of juice (-122) to get that half. I like Dequan Finn, but the lack of a running game is a problem. I see a big game for Lew Nichols III. Give me Central outright. The Rockets are getting too much credit for losing a game to San Diego State that they should have won.
Bowling Green(-9.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know about this one. Remember Shocky Jacques-Louis? Played with Jordan Addison and Kenny Pickett at Pitt last year? Now he's catching passes from DJ Irons at Akron. This feels a little high to me. I'll take Akron to keep this around a touchdown.
Miami(OH) at Buffalo(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Redhawks were the only MAC team to knock off a Big Ten(14) team. They are getting no respect for it. Not that they deserve a lot for beating a lackluster Northwestern team, but still. Buffalo lost to Holy Cross and the Redhawks have a decent defense as opposed to Eastern Michigan. I'll take Miami here.
Ohio at Kent State(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Kent finally gets to catch their breath after trips to Seattle, Norman, and Athens. Ohio is a really bad team right now. Kent rolls!
(17)Texas A&M at Mississippi State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is surprising. Those cowbells are annoying as hell, but this Aggies defense looks really good right now. I still like A&M outright.
Florida Atlantic(-3.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The only question I have is whether the Owls can cover Roderic Burns. I think they find a way. I'll take FAU.
South Alabama(-8.5) at Louisiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Toledo transfer Carter Bradley has the Jaguars rolling. The Cajuns just lost outright at Monroe. Give me the Jags.
California at Washington State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was expecting the line to be higher than this. The bettors are taking notice...Cal has some really good talent there, but they're young. The Cougars had Oregon beat last week. How will they recover from giving up three touchdowns in the last four minutes to the Ducks? I'll take Wazzu, but I'm nervous about it.
Liberty(-3.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place and there's juice on both sides. I still like the Monarchs at home, but this is a losable game. I'm leaving this one alone.
UTEP(-2.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did UTEP turn the corner or were they just playing a really bad Boise team? I tend to think it's the latter. Chris Reynolds is expected to play after leaving in the third quarter last week against South Carolina. Charlotte wins this outright.
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...this feels a little high. Georgia Southern is a strong team and Coastal has struggled at times this year. Give me the Eagles and the points.
LSU(-8.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yes, I wanted to see T.J. Finley get a crack at his former school, but no such luck. This is a tough task for Robby Ashford. I like LSU BIG in this one.
Cincinnati(-9.5) at Tulsa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Tulsa is a good team. This is a game that could go over with the passing attacks from both teams. Give me Tulsa and the points, but I still think Cincinnati wins.
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not sure that Monroe can force James Blackman into the mistakes that have cost the Red Wolves so far this year. I'll take Arkansas State.
Troy at Western Kentucky(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did the Hilltoppers save any points for this week? Troy is running the gauntlet right now. First, they lose on a Hail Mary in Boone with College Gameday there. Then they have a great battle with Marshall. How much do they have left? Troy is capable of winning this, but that's a tough stretch in the Fun Belt. Give me the Hilltoppers.
(1)Georgia(-28.5) at Missouri
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This isn't a tough one for Georgia at all. Bulldogs by a lot!
(10)North Carolina State at (5)Clemson(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Given the state of Clemson's secondary, I like the Wolfpack here. The problem is that NC State hasn't won in Clemson in 20 years. All three wins since then were in Raleigh. I'm still going with the Wolfpack since I'll be surprised if Clemson wins by more than a touchdown.
West Virginia at Texas(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. It opened at -13.5 and the bottom is still falling out of it. I've seen it at 8.5 already and it might be lower than that by kickoff. I still think Texas wins in Austin, but this feels like a game where West Virginia hangs around.
Indiana at Nebraska(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The off week came at the right time for Nebraska. They were able to work on the defense and get fully acclimated to interim coach Mickey Joseph. That still doesn't mean I think they should be favored. It wasn't just the scheme that caused the defense to give up yards by the acre. I'm still taking Indiana outright here. They get a few stops, at least. I do love the over 61 as well.
Virginia at Duke(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels bogus. The Virginia offense didn't turn any corners against the Orange, but they were at least able to sustain drives in the second half of that game. Brennan Armstrong's abilities didn't just vanish. He's still the guy that threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last year. If he's starting to grasp this new scheme, look out. I just don't think Duke can cover these receivers. Give me Virginia outright.
San Jose State(-2.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is a little surprising. San Jose State destroyed a Western Michigan team without their starting quarterback, but that was at sea level. This is at nearly 8,000 feet! Wyoming wins outright!
UAB(-9.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. DeWayne McBride is going to have another huge day. Give me the Blazers.
Georgia Tech at (24)Pittsburgh(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a lot of points. The Bees were able to put a couple of drives together last week, but it's one thing to do it to UCF. It's another to accomplish that on Pitt. Pitt's defensive line should control this game. I'll take the Panthers.
Florida International at New Mexico State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Two touchdowns? Seriously? There is a team that much worse than New Mexico State? I have a hard time believing that. Give me FIU, but I'm staying far away from this one.
Colorado at Arizona(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Owen McCown had the Ralphies looking better, but this is a long rebuilding process in Colorado. It could be a lot shorter with the transfer portal the way it is, but this is still a lost season in Boulder. Give me Arizona.
Arizona State at (6)USC(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is up a touchdown. That seems like a lot considering USC is having issues stopping the run. I don't trust Arizona State, but part of me feels like Shaun Aguano has them playing better already. I'll take Arizona State, but I'm leaving this one alone. I know their defense can't do what Oregon State just did to the Trojans.
Stanford at (13)Oregon(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Oregon has only covered this line twice in the last decade despite being big favorites in most of those games. I'll take the Cardinal. I don't think they win, but this series has been close most of the time.
SMU at Central Florida(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This whole game is just weird. It was just moved for the third time, to Wednesday, because of Hurricane Ian. The Bounce House could still be a little messy due to the amount of rain in Orlando, which favors SMU. However, the Ponies have been in Orlando getting ready to play for a week now. Orlando got to hunker down at home. I originally liked SMU in this one, but I'm going to flip it. Give me UCF.
I went heavier in the middle again this week with 26 two-point bets and 15 three-pointers. I only had six singles but placed a season-high ten four-pointers. I only went with one max bet, which was tonight.
There's still enough for a decent parlay today and most of them are on the road less traveled. If I had seen Kent play a normal team, I would probably max them out against an Ohio team that allowed 315 receiving yards to one player last week. I went with a larger bet against UMass again this week, but I'm a little more nervous about it than usual
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