MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/22/2025)

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/22/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Vinnie Pasquantino, Pete Alonso, Nolan Schaneul, and Ketel Marte.

It is a typically large, full-to-be-exact slate for this Friday, August 22, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups. Additionally, we have some warm weather all across the nation as we enter the dog days of summer. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 22, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/22/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, August 22:

• Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
• Pete Alonso, New York Mets
• Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angels
• Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings)

We are kicking tonight's article off with a guy who has been featured here in the past in Vinnie Pasquantino. Vinnie has a pretty solid matchup to go deep tonight and has been on a heater lately. Over the previous two weeks, he has smacked a total of six home runs while posting an OPS of 1.114. Quite frankly, he has been en feugo.

The metrics on the season back up the power we have seen as well. Overall, he has hit a total of 25 home runs while posting an average exit velocity of 90.5 mph, which ranks him in the top 29% of baseball. He has also posted a 7.2% Barrels/PA mark, ranking him in the top 28% of the league. Additionally, he has posted an OPS of .829 vs. right-handed pitching, which is exactly who he will be up against in the Detroit Tigers' Casey Mize.

Mize has had some struggles, as he has allowed 16 total home runs across his 21 games started. Seven of these home runs have come off of left-handed bats while allowing a .256 BAA. Overall, he has also allowed a 5.8% Barrels/BBE mark, which ranks him in the bottom 16% of the league.

Don't go crushing baseballs into waterfalls!

Vinnie Pasquantino DESTROYS this pitch for a no-doubt 3-run blast! pic.twitter.com/EYGLAvQQol

— MLB (@MLB) August 21, 2025

Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings)

Pete Alonso is the chalk selection of the article this week, as his odds suggest. That is alright, however, as he has a lot going in his favor in terms of hitting a home run tonight. First and foremost, he has hit six home runs over the previous three weeks while posting an OPS north of .900. He has also shown great power metrics on the season.

Overall, he has posted a hard hit rate of 40.3%, which ranks him in the top 8% of baseball. He has also posted an average exit velocity of 93.3 mph, which ranks him in the top 4% of baseball. He has also done rather well against left-handed pitching, having posted an .810 OPS with 30 home runs against them since 2023.

That is exactly who he will be up against in Braves' left-hander Joey Wentz. While  Wentz has allowed just seven home runs this season, six have come off the bat of right-handed hitters, and he has allowed a total of 25 home runs against them since 2023. Wentz also ranks in the bottom 19% in terms of baseballs hit 95+ mph.

Alonso should have a great shot to go deep tonight, and although the odds tell us that, he is still worth throwing into a round robin play.

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Nolan Schanuel OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+TBD DraftKings)

Nolan Schaneul is an unlikely candidate to go yard on most nights, which is why his odds should be more favorable than some other players listed in this article. I have mentioned him before in this piece, though, and feel like he has a good shot to go yard tonight. On the season, he has hit just 10 home runs, and while he did not have any in the previous week, he has posted a very solid .835 OPS.

Overall, he has really done well against right-handed pitching, as noted by his .753 OPS against them while also hitting eight of his 10 home runs against them. He has also performed well at home, which is not the best news for his opponent, Ben Brown, of the Chicago Cubs.

On the season, Brown has posted an ERA close to 6.00 on the road while also allowing a 1.9 HR/9 mark. Overall, he has allowed a total of 17 home runs across just 99 innings pitched. He has also struggled quite a bit against left-handed hitters, as noted by the fact that he has allowed 13 of his 17 home runs against them.

Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings)

Ketel Marte is another player who has been hotter than lava in recent weeks. Over the previous two weeks, he has posted a 1.030 OPS. While he does have just two home runs across this span, he is more than capable of going deep, as noted by his 23 home runs on the season. Marte has also put up some solid power metrics this season.

Overall, he has posted a 91.2 mph average exit velocity, which ranks him in the top 19% of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate of 37%, which ranks him in the top 21% of the league. Marte has shown more power against right-handed pitching, as noted by his .997 OPS and 17 home runs against them. He should be in a good spot against Zack Littell of the Cincinnati Reds.

Littell has given up a ridiculous 27 home runs this season, with 12 of those coming off left-handed bats. The home run totals are not all that surprising when we see he has allowed an average exit velocity of 84.3 mph, which ranks him near the bottom of the league. He has also allowed a 6.3% Barrels/BBE mark, which ranks him in the bottom 5% of the league.

This game will also be played at Chase Field, which is good news for Marte. On the season, Marte has posted an OPS north of .800 with nine home runs. While he is a bit better on the road, the home metrics are still solid enough to look at him to go yard. This park plays well for the long ball, especially if the roof ends up being open. Meanwhile, Littell has posted a 1.9 HR/9 mark on the road compared to a 1.2 mark at home this season.

Aside from a home run play, Marte is also a superb candidate for going over his hits+runs+RBI prop as well.

Ketel Marte remains the top second baseman according to The Shredder 📊 https://t.co/b4w1n30tsS pic.twitter.com/eEfoiWpPOB

— MLB Now (@MLBNow) August 18, 2025

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