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We have our largest betting week of the year so far with 60 games total and 55 of them on Saturday alone! I had a disappointing week last week, but I'm ready to get back to winning with conference play starting in earnest this week. This is where the money is made. I was under .500 heading into conference play last season as well. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. I guess whenever I bet on Western Michigan, it's a good bet. They are the first team to win me ten points so far this season!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 4 (9/24)
Kent State at (1)Georgia(-45.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, how about that strength of schedule for Kent? They have already played Washington, Oklahoma, and now Georgia. They're going to get smoked here as well. Give me UGA.
Maryland at (4)Michigan(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan has covered this line in each of the last six meetings, including a 41-point thrashing in College Park last year. Yes, I feel like Maryland is a different team and heading in the right direction, but I still think they get covered in the Big House.
(5)Clemson(-7.5) at (21)Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Yes, this is a huge game in Winston-Salem, but is Vegas watching the same games that I am? It was all Wake could do to escape Liberty last week. Sam Hartman was sloppy and the Flames held A.T. Perry mostly in check. I'm not a huge believer in the Clemson offense, but that defense is legit and Wake's has struggled yet again. Clemson by double digits.
Central Michigan at (14)Penn State(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ouch! This line is up three points and will likely be higher by tomorrow morning. I'm liking it less and less as it goes up. Nicholas Singleton is the missing link for the Penn State offense. I guess they did cover Auburn by this – on the road, no less – so I'll still take the Clifford's. I have less confidence in it now though.
(17)Baylor at Iowa State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not sure Iowa State deserves to be favored in this one. Beating Iowa isn't what it used to be. That said, the Bears haven't won in Ames since 2016. Is this team really that much better than last year? I don't think so, but I know Iowa State isn't either. I'll take Baylor, but this is going to be a battle!
Missouri at Auburn(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh really? The Tigers lose T.J. Finley and just got trounced by Penn State at home and they're more than a touchdown favorite? That seems odd. What isn't odd is how phenomenally bad that Missouri defense is. Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby should take over this game. Give me Auburn.
Bowling Green at Mississippi State(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Call me crazy, but I don't think the Bulldogs cover this. The offense does a great job moving the ball and they move fast, but they aren't all that explosive. Bowling Green looked really good against a Marshall team that took out Notre Dame last week. The Falcons have no shot at a win, but I think they'll steal a couple of touchdowns and not get covered.
TCU(-2.5) at SMU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Huh? The Toadies haven't had possession of the Iron Skillet since 2018. Why would they get it on the road here? SMU lost to a strong Maryland team on the road last week. TCU? They haven't been tested yet. I like SMU BIG in this one.
Duke at Kansas(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not a huge fan of the half, but I am a huge fan of the way Kansas plays. Jayhawks by double digits!
South Florida at Louisville(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a dangerous game for the Cardinals. The Bulls waltzed into Gainesville and played well enough to win. They won't have as many fans up in Louisville, but that half has me leaning towards South Florida. The Bulls can run well and I'm not sure Louisville can stop it.
Buffalo at Eastern Michigan(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Vegas sees a letdown, but I don't. This is not a good Buffalo team. Eagles by a lot!
UCLA(-21.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This should be an easy win for UCLA. The Ralphies can't stop anything and can't move the ball. I don't like the half so I'll lower this a little, but I really don't see UCLA struggling here.
Massachusetts at Temple(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is probably the only time I'll take Temple this year. UMass got the win against Stony Brook, but they won't make a habit out of it. The most intriguing part about this game is that Kurt Warner's son is Temple's starting quarterback. Give me the Owls. That's as good a reason as any!
(20)Florida at (11)Tennessee(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
My first instinct is to say that this looks high, but we all know it's not. This is not your normal Florida team right now. Give me the Vols.
(22)Texas(-6.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas has pulled back the reins a little on Texas and I'm not really sure why. They beat a sound UTSA team last week by running them into the ground. NC State ran a lot on Tech as well. The Tech receivers are going to be a problem, but I don't really think Texas Tech is there yet. However, they are going places...finally. Give me Texas in this one. They should still take this by double digits, much in the same way that they pulled away from UTSA. Besides, the Red Raiders haven't beaten Texas in Lubbock since the Michael Crabtree catch in 2008.
Middle Tennessee State at (25)Miami(FL)(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is still as low as 24 and all the way up to 28 in spots. I don't really know where it should be either. Miami shouldn't have problems with this. They need the offensive calisthenics to wash away the A&M game. Give me the Canes.
Notre Dame at North Carolina(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not sure the Tarheels could stop the best high school team in North Carolina right now. The Irish offense is better with Drew Pyne running the show and the defense has done everything you can ask. Irish straight up.
Minnesota(-2.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm surprised that the Gophers are favored. Just because I think they should be doesn't mean much. The three points aren't much of a deterrent when I like Goldy straight up anyway. Give me Minnesota.
Indiana at Cincinnati(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, that's too many. This Indiana offense is a solid unit. I expect Cincinnati to win, but I'll be shocked if it's by more than two touchdowns. Hell, I'll be shocked if it's by more than ten. Give me the Hoosiers and the points.
James Madison at Appalachian State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I wouldn't touch this one. This has trap written all over it. Troy almost sniped the Mountaineers last week. JMU is good enough to win this outright. Even if they don't, I don't think they lose by a touchdown either. I'll take the Dukes and the points.
Toledo(-2.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow...the Rockets are favored? I like Dequan Finn, but having him be the leading rusher on the team against San Diego State is a tough ask. The lack of a cohesive run game with Bryant Koback gone is a problem for the Rockets. I still think the Aztecs win at home.
Florida International at Western Kentucky(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I have no faith in the WKU defense, but I have negative faith in anything Panthers right now. I think I have to take the Hilltoppers, but I wouldn't touch this. That's a lot of points for a team without a sound defense.
North Texas at Memphis(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like Austin Aune, but he can't play defense. Don't worry...no one else on the Mean Green can either. Seth Henigan is going to put up video game numbers here. Give me Memphis.
(15)Oregon(-6.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line feels fair. How much stock can we put into Oregon blasting BYU? How much stock can we put into the Cougars outslugging Wisconsin in Madison? I'll take Oregon, but I'm not super confident in it.
Tulsa at (16)Mississippi(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a touch high. Davis Brin has looked good for Tulsa and they have about five experienced backs. I think Tulsa hangs around, but they won't win.
Georgia Tech at Central Florida(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The loss of Jahmyr Gibbs has the Bees reeling. Give me UCF.
Arizona at California(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Arizona has some fight in them. They beat a really good North Dakota State team last week for those of you that couldn't be bothered to stay up to watch that game. It was a great one! I think Arizona would have folded in that situation last year. You can get this at .3-5 on FanDuel with no juice at all. That tells me that leaning Arizona is the right move. I wouldn't bet this though.
Akron at Liberty(-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If Flames nearly burn down a Wake Forest does anyone notice? Someone in Vegas sure did. This is a little higher than I would like. Give me Liberty, but I'm lowering the bet.
Navy at East Carolina(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Middies can't control the ball, but the defense still looks strong. This feels like too many. ECU wins but doesn't cover.
Ball State at Georgia Southern(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Eagles lost to a very good back last week. The Lettermans don't have one of those. Give me GSU.
Arkansas State at Old Dominion(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Considering the pre-conference rampage the Monarchs have been on through Tobacco Road, this feels low. Monarchs by double digits.
Rice at Houston(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like what I've seen from Houston on the sidelines, or on the field for that matter. They got knocked to the canvas by Kansas and couldn't get up. This is a rivalry game and Rice is getting better. Houston is capable of covering this, but wow, I just don't like the demeanor of this team right now. I'll take Rice and the points, but I'm not betting anything significant for or against Houston for a while.
Northern Illinois at (8)Kentucky(-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is another line that has a lot of play in it. I'm starting to think that Kentucky may be getting too much credit for beating Florida. The offense has struggled at times without Chris Rodriguez. The defense is what we expect, but that's a lot of points against a solid team. I think I'll go with the Huskies and the points, but I have no interest in actually betting this one.
(10)Arkansas vs. (23)Texas A&M(-2.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has had a lot of movement in it. A&M dominated Miami and only moved up one slot. Arkansas needed a furious fourth to swat away Bobby Petrino's Missouri State team. That game is skewing this line since this opened with the Piggies favored. This feels a lot like last year's matchup, with the difference being that the supporting cast around KJ Jefferson isn't as strong. I'll take Arkansas, but I'm not super confident in it.
Iowa(-7.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still don't believe in Iowa. I don't believe in Rutgers either. I can at least hang my hat on the Iowa D, so I'll take Iowa. This is going to be a boring game though.
Southern Mississippi at Tulane(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This one feels a bit high. Frank Gore Jr. is a really good player on a really bad team, but the Eagles have at least shown signs of life this year. They hung with a pretty good Liberty team and stuck with Miami for about a third of that game. Southern Miss won't run a vanilla game like Kansas State did. I'll take the Eagles. They should hang around, but I doubt they win.
UNLV(-2.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels like free money. The Aggies are a total disaster and UNLV has three electric players in QB Doug Brumfield, RB Aidan Robbins, and WR Ricky White. Rebels win BIG!
Marshall(-3.5) at Troy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm more than a little surprised that Marshall is still favored here. Their passing game leaves a lot to be desired and Troy had Appalachian State beat. Nine times out of ten they win that game. I'm taking Troy at home.
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels like an overcorrection for the UCLA game, but I don't think it is. The Jaguars thrashed a decent Central Michigan team before the UCLA game. They are certainly capable of covering this. The Bulldogs are playing better with Parker McNeil calling the shots, but I still like USA at home.
Vanderbilt at (2)Alabama(-40.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Vanderbilt is a much better team than last year. They're still going to get blown out, but 40 feels like a ton of points. I'll take the Commodores and the points.
Wisconsin at (3)Ohio State(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too low. Wisconsin can't pass and Ohio State won't give them a lot of running room. Give me the Buckeyes.
Connecticut at (12)North Carolina State(-38.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This still feels high. The Wolfpack are going to win this going away, but are their backups really good enough to keep piling on UConn like Michigan was? I'll take UConn, but I'm not touching this one.
New Mexico at LSU(-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is just cardio for LSU. Give me the Tigers.
Miami(OH) at Northwestern(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So you're telling me that the Redhawks are two touchdowns worse than Southern Illinois? I don't buy it. This is another game that Northwestern should win, but there's more than just talent dogging this team right now. Aveon Smith played a really good game for about a half against Cincinnati. If he does that against Northwestern, the Redhawks win. Give me Miami.
Charlotte at South Carolina(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Niners fans should make the trek down to Columbia. To me, this is a big number for a team that doesn't take care of the ball to cover by. I'll take Charlotte.
Florida Atlantic at Purdue(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is creeping upwards. The Owls are a solid team, but Purdue's losses are to a good Syracuse team on the road and to a Penn State team that is better than we originally thought. I think Purdue winds up covering at home.
Kansas State at (6)Oklahoma(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Considering the way Kansas State has played us for the last five years or so, this number feels little high. Again, we played Kansas State last year before Caleb Williams took over as quarterback. Deuce Vaughn is going to be a problem, but I don't think Adrian Martinez can throw well enough to win this game. I'm taking Oklahoma.
Hawaii at New Mexico State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is up two points, which is like 20 points for normal teams. It speaks volumes when the nation's only 0-4 team is favored by more than a field goal. It really does. It also means Vegas is wrong. Give me Hawaii.
Boston College at Florida State(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line suggests that Vegas thinks Jordan Travis will play. Travis did practice some this week, but the fact that he was wearing a protective boot when he came back to the sidelines last week is still concerning. Tate Rodemaker is good enough to beat the Eagles, but by 18 points? That feels a little high. If Travis is out, I'm going with BC. If Travis plays, I'll take the Seminoles.
Louisiana(-9.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
These two teams really don't like each other. The bad news for the Warhawks is that they haven't beaten the Cajuns in Monroe since 2004. All four of their wins in this series since then have been in Lafayette, the last being a 56-50 defense-optional thriller in 2017. The Cajuns eked out a five-point win last year and have won three of the last four meetings by five points or less. The outlier? The 70-20 rout in 2020 behind Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell. I don't see a game-breaker on this Louisiana team, so I tend to think this is too many, especially on the road. Give me the Warhawks.
(7)USC(-5.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The easy answer to this is that Oregon State nearly lost to Fresno and USC torched them. Therefore, this number looks way too low. The USC teams that lost in Corvallis a few times in the early 2000's are still skewing this line. Yes, Oregon State is a good team this year. USC is better at nearly every position, even on defense. I still feel like this is too low. Oregon State isn't going quietly, but I still think they lose by double digits.
Wyoming at (19)BYU(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This one feels high. Wyoming has proven they can score points this year even though Xazavian Valladay moved to Tempe. Now the bad news: Wyoming hasn't won in Provo since 1987 and they haven't won at all in this series since 2003. However, in the last two meetings of this series in 2010 and 2016, BYU has won by a combined eight points. Give me Wyoming. I don't think they win, but this is too high.
(13)Utah(-15.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
"Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss." Were The Who onto something? This line jumped ten points after the firing of Herm Edwards (and the loss to Eastern Michigan...the line opened before that game even finished). Samson Evans chewed up the Sun Devils on the ground. Tavion Thomas could be in for a big night. Give me the Utes.
Stanford at (18)Washington(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Stanford defense still hasn't shown that they can stop anyone and the offense can't get out of their own way. This should be another easy one for the Huskies.
Western Michigan at San Jose State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like this one at all, especially given how good the Western Michigan running backs are. Chevan Coredeiro had a good game against Auburn, but what does that count for right now? He has still thrown just one touchdown in two games even though he has two rushing. This team can't run the ball. I like Western straight up.
I tipped the scales with 10 one-point bet and 28 two-point bets, both my highest totals of the season. My 15 threes is about average, but I went lighter on the fours this week with only four of them. Maybe last week made me a little shy about those bets. I did go back to three five-point bets this week.
That leaves my favorite parlay as Eastern Michigan, Washington, SMU, UNLV, USC, Kansas, and Clemson. All of them are favorites though, so that does make me a little nervous.
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