Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Five Very Deep Wide Receiver Sleepers


Sleepers sleepers sleepers sleepers. With fantasy football season in full swing, I know you're already tired of the word "sleeper," especially when people will basically use the word for any player. "Yes, dude in my fantasy league, please tell me more about your big sleeper pick for this year, Saquon Barkley."

Clearly, there's a need to talk about sleepers, but so often everyone in fantasy football land will talk about the same sleepers for such a long time that they wind up skyrocketing up draft boards and becoming not-sleepers. Not-sleepers don't help anyone. They can end up being a negative value. Have you seen how high Daesean Hamilton's gone in some drafts???

Well, I'm here to dig really, really deep into the bottom of NFL depth charts to give you my very deep sleepers for this year. Today, I'll be digging into the wide receiver position. Let's talk about five guys who might not be on your radar at all yet, but who should be. All of these players fall outside the top-300 in FantasyPros' ADP average. As such, you shouldn't necessarily be targeting them in drafts, but you should keep an eye on them.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Chris Conley - Jacksonville Jaguars

Marqise Lee is still not practicing at Jaguars' training camp. That leaves the team with a top-three receiving group of Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark, and Chris Conley. Keelan Cole seems to be a pretty distant fourth of the healthy guys. Terrelle Pryor's going to be cut unless Lee starts the year on the PUP list.

If Westbrook -- who'll play primarily out of the slot -- is going to be the team's most targeted receiver, the battle to be the second-most targeted receiver is wide open. Lee's got the edge on talent, but his recovery from a preseason ACL tear last season has been extremely slow and there's a good chance that he doesn't end playing much of a role this year.

Meanwhile, Conley and Chark have both had strong training camps and the fight for which one ends up playing more snaps looks to be going down to the wire. But last year we saw Chark struggle to adapt to the NFL and in particular struggle in the red zone, where he failed to bring in all three of his targets. Conley brought in seven of his 10 red-zone targets last year, totaling 48 yards and five touchdowns. So, there's reason one why I see Conley getting that spot.

Another is that both Conley and Chark have similar athletic profiles. Both have 98th percentile 40-yard dash times and can be used as deep-ball threats for new quarterback Nick Foles. To me, that suggests that if athleticism is virtually equal, you go with the receiver that you can trust more. Conley's that guy. He's a more reliable target for Foles, someone who you can trust to make tougher catches than Chark can.

Conley was 54th among wide receivers last year in fantasy points per target with 1.76. Chark wasn't targeted enough to qualify for a percentile rank, but he had just 0.92 fantasy points per target. Chark's catch rate of 43.8 percent is just incredibly discouraging. Maybe his training camp showing is indicative of a leap in his game, but I'm more willing to believe that Conley establishes himself as the team's second outside receiver once Lee is back.

 

Justin Watson - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It was actually a toss-up for me here with Watson and teammate Scott Miller, but I ultimately settled on Watson as my Buccaneers' deep sleeper, as he's farther ahead right now and more likely to see meaningful snaps this season.

Watson seems to be the leader for the slot receiver job that was vacated when Adam Humphries went to Tennessee. Humphries had 600 or more receiving yards in each of his final three seasons with the Bucs, and last season he broke out as a viable PPR flex option, catching 76 passes for 816 yards and five scores.

I admittedly don't know a ton about Watson. In 12 games last year, he was targeted three times, catching one pass for five yards. He never played more than 15 percent of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps in a game.

But playing time in an offense that should rely heavily on the passing game is a fantasy-relevant skill, and Watson also has some encouraging workout metrics to go along with that playing time. He has an 87th percentile speed score and 88th percentile burst score. Oh, and he has a 92nd percentile catch radius.

Watson had three consecutive 1000-yard seasons at Penn, and in his final year, he hauled in 14 touchdowns. It's difficult to know how that translates to the NFL since he was playing against FCS competition, but there's a lot of encouraging signs that he should perform well if pressed into a larger role.

 

Emmanuel Butler - New Orleans Saints

It seems like every other report I hear about Saints camp includes the phrase "Emmanuel Butler impressing coaches."

The undrafted rookie out of Northern Arizona has spent camp staking a claim for snaps on a Saints offense that should remain one of the NFL's strongest.

Butler can provide Drew Brees with a big target and while there have been concerns about Butler's speed, the Saints don't need him to be a burner, as they have Ted Ginn Jr. for that.

With Cameron Meredith just released, the path for Butler to make this team gets easier. New Orleans has a need for someone with a similar build to Michael Thomas for red-zone plays, a guy who can go up and get jump-balls from Brees. And as Brees ages, the Saints have less need for someone who can outrun coverage and more need for a sure-handed, big target.

Butler has a chance to start the year as New Orleans' fourth receiver. Once he's there, anything can happen. Remember Keith Kirkwood and Tommylee Lewis having some strong games last year?

 

Vyncint Smith - Houston Texans

Death. Taxes. At least one Houston Texans wide receiver going down with a season-long injury. These are the guarantees in life. Already we are seeing concerns surrounding Keke Coutee

Houston's got an impressive top-three at wideout, with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Coutee making up what's arguably one of the strongest top-threes in the NFL. And then there's...well, not much. Houston has a bunch of guys who are literally just guys. Vyncint Smith's the most likely of those to make an impact this year.

Smith has had a good training camp and has solidified his spot as the team's fourth receiver. When you consider that both Fuller and Coutee were injured for parts of last season and that Fuller's got a pretty significant injury history, you can assume there's a decent chance we see Smith on the field for significant action at some point this year.

Smith played in five games for the Texans last year, seeing a 50 percent or better snap rate in just of them. He played 41 snaps against the Giants and caught one pass, and in the regular seaosn finale against the Jaguars appeared on 84.4 percent of Houston's offensive plays. Smith caught three passes for 28 yards in that one.

But the biggest reason that I think Smith has what it takes to be a key cog in this offense if someone goes down? This touchdown against the Eagles:

Smith did a good job getting deep on this one and made an incredibly acrobatic catch for the score. If Fuller misses time, Smith's shown flashes of being able to step into an outside, deep-ball role. He's spent training camp running sharp routes and looking like someone who needs to be on the field more. If Smith gets a shot, he'll be productive for owners in deeper leagues.

 

Cameron Meredith - New England Patriots

I was ready to give up on Cameron Meredith. I had, in fact, as I'd dropped him in a dynasty league after the Saints cut him. He was a banged up, sorta-veteran wideout who was team-less during training camps. Where was he going to find a home?

Well, I forgot that the New England Patriots have the NFL equivalent of a YouTube comment section at receiver right now: just a bunch of anonymous guys who you'd be best off ignoring. When New England signed Meredith, I instantly regretted dropping him.

Unlike the rest of the players in this article, Meredith has shown actual, sustained NFL-level production before. In 2016 with the Bears, Meredith caught 66 passes for 888 yards and four scores. I was READY for the 2017 full break out that was definitely coming. And then Meredith got hurt and missed all of 2017. Then he ended up leaving Chicago for New Orleans.

I then got ready for him to burst out of the gate last year, but injuries slowed him again. He caught just nine passes in six games with New Orleans.

So, what's different in New England? Opportunity.

The Patriots currently have the following wide receivers on their roster: Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, Phillip Dorsett, Maurice Harris, Jakobi Meyers, Damoun Patterson, Dontrelle Inman, Braxton Berrios, Ryan Davis, Gunner Olszewski, Matthew Slater, Danny Etling, and Demaryius Thomas.

Edelman, Harry, and Dorsett are your locks to make the team. Thomas might have hit a point where he's too hobbled by injury to make the team. Meyers has been exciting in training camp and to open preseason. Inman's a not exciting veteran. I liked Berrios a few years ago. Danny Etling literally converted to wide receiver from quarterback at the start of camp because of how wide open this competition is. I can't think of anything to say about anyone else.

The point is, if Meredith can be ready to go by Week 1, he stands a good chance of making this team. Once he's there, there's not really a set pecking order behind Edelman. Harry has struggled in camp, so the Patriots could view Meredith as a reliable option on the outside who can help them win games.

More ADP Values and Sleepers


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!




More Recent Articles

 

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Jo Adell

The most coveted type of player in fantasy baseball is the batter who can hit home runs, steal bases and hit for contact. Stolen bases are harder to find, as more big-league teams are opting to take a cautious approach to baserunning. Additionally, batting average has declined because hitters are striking out more often, as... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis - Gleyber Torres vs. Corey Seager

Fantasy baseball players acquire draft position through osmosis. The more drafts that take place, the larger sample we gain of how owners of all experience levels feel about someone. Granted, inexperienced players often rely on rankings from experts, which goes to form ADP into something resembling common rankings, but the outcome is unimpeachable, collected data... Read More


ADP Cost Analysis – Aaron Nola vs Lance Lynn

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft... Read More


2020 Regression Candidates: Breakout Outfielders

Every season in MLB you can count on the fact that you will have breakout performances from players. Sometimes these breakout performances can be seen coming a mile away and sometimes they catch you entirely by surprise. Regardless of which type of breakout we see, you will almost always have to pay up for that... Read More


Bases Loaded Podcast - Quality Start Episode 1

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) and Matt Williams (@MattWi77iams) of the Turn Two Podcast come together for a new co-pod series called "Quality Start". This will be a joint effort and episodes will be found on Bases Loaded as well as the Turn Two Podcast. We are joined by Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) as well for this one.... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Adrian Houser

In life, there seem to be two kinds of people, the flashy and the boring. “Flashy” people like high-end materialistic things such as nice clothing or an expensive car. "Boring” people prefer the simpler things in life like spending time with their loved ones. This seems to be true when it comes to fantasy baseball,... Read More


Taking Out the Trash: Pitchers Who Should Junk Their Worst Pitch

Pitch mix changes can make or break a player’s season. That obviously goes for fantasy value as well as real-life. We've already seen how throwing an effective pitch more often could make a huge improvement a la Patrick Corbin. Sometimes pitchers just need to eliminate a pitch to see their numbers improve. Consider the following: Mitch... Read More


ADP Showdown – Trevor Story vs. Trea Turner

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position... Read More


Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More


2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More


Bases Loaded Podcast - All Things Fantasy Baseball w/ Nick Pollack (@PitcherList)

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) is  joined by Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) and they discuss all things fantasy baseball! Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune... Read More


Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available... Read More


ADP Showdown - Whit Merrifield vs Austin Meadows

Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already begun dealing with tough draft position decisions. The outfield position is deep as always, but... Read More


2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Third Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is... Read More


2020 Dynasty Leagues: Players to Sell (Premium Content)

As draft day approaches in dynasty leagues, the window to sell-high on a big name has never been better. The first days of spring training are a chance to cash in on players who may have hit their peak value before the 2020 season begins. Bartering is a matter of risk vs reward. You hate... Read More


More Recent Articles

 

NFL Draft Combine Preview: Running Backs

What always seems to be the highlight for fantasy owners as preparations begin before the NFL Draft is the running back position. Owners clamor to get their hands on the new blood in the league as it has recently shown that it can pay off big time. We've seen the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Christian... Read More


RB Opportunity Share and Impact (AFC East & North): 2019 Review

We wrap up with our coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players... Read More


Dynasty Price Check - Adam Thielen

Many of you have already begun planning and building your 2020 rosters. This includes best ball owners who have assembled teams in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are inspecting the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued your process of relentless roster evaluation. As... Read More


XFL DFS Lineup Picks For Week 3: The Checkdown

Check out this week's XFL fantasy football preview including game breakdowns, player analysis, DFS lineup picks and more for week three of the 2020 XFL season. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune... Read More


D.J. Chark - Dynasty Price Check

Are you ready for some football? If you are in a dynasty fantasy football league, you most certainly are! The time between the Super Bowl and the NFL Draft is a prime opportunity for hardcore owners to evaluate their current team and prepare for their upcoming rookie drafts. We've already looked at young players like Courtland... Read More


RB Opportunity Share and Impact (NFC South & West): 2019 Review

We roll on with coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players of... Read More


Biggest ADP Surprises: Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft

RotoBaller fantasy football analysts Pierre Camus and Chris Mangano review the draft board from RotoBaller's 2020 Way Too Early Mock fantasy football draft. They look at early ADP, reaches, values, and surprises throughout the first 10 rounds. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us... Read More


XFL Week 2 - Quarterback Risers and Fallers

We previously looked at target and opportunity risers and fallers, based on the first two weeks of XFL data. Now, it's time to evaluate the quarterbacks, for better or worse. There are few known commodities, even among seasoned NFL fans, at the quarterback position in this league. Relative unknowns like Phillip Walker and Jordan Ta'amu... Read More


XFL Week 2 - Opportunity Risers and Fallers

We previously looked at target risers and fallers based on the first two weeks of XFL data. The XFL has made it past Week 2 and now we have eight games of data to analyze. No small feat, as nobody knew where this league was going just a few weeks ago. But here we are,... Read More


XFL Week 2 - Target Risers and Fallers

The XFL has made it past Week 2 and now we have eight games of data to analyze. No small feat, as nobody knew where this league was going just a few weeks ago. But here we are, just mere days from Week 3 matchups! With two dates already in the rearview mirror and plenty... Read More


NFL Draft Combine Preview: Quarterbacks

With the Super Bowl now behind us, it is officially NFL Draft season! It's time to speculate on draft picks for teams, who should land where, and which players should be valued over others. This also marks the unofficial start to the 2020 fantasy football season. Getting in the early preparation can give owners a... Read More


RB Opportunity Share and Impact (AFC South & West): 2019 Review

We roll on with coverage of each of the eight NFL divisions, discussing the teams that are part of them and the running backs that were part of those teams in 2019. To present those teams and players I use a set of easy-to-read charts: treemaps. The graphics will hold all of the players of... Read More