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If you're looking to make a splash on draft day, you should give RotoBaller's ADP Draft Sleepers Tool a long hard look. Part of our Premium Subscribers package, the Sleepers Tool allows you to compare a player's expected production against his top comparables going later in the draft.
Frankly, it's a great resource for identifying overvalued talents and hidden gems alike. To give you a glimpse into how it works, I've used the tool to scan through this year's stock of 1st basemen. Ready to see what value picks the Sleepers Tool unearthed? Let's take a look some player's ADPs and their Steamer projections and see who the better values really are.
Freddie Freeman vs. Prince Fielder
| Name | ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| Freeman | 35.0 | 24 | 651 | .285 | .376 | 82 | 24 | 84 | 3 |
| Fielder | 64.0 | 30 | 599 | .282 | .380 | 81 | 24 | 86 | 1 |
The difference between these two boils down to risk. Fielder is coming off what's easily the worst season of his career. What's more, after last year's neck surgery, no one really knows how close to 100% he is, or how well he'll hold up during the long season. What makes him a tantalizing prospect despite this is his ceiling. Especially with regard to power, Fielder's potential production is a sizable mark above Freeman's.
This is especially true when you realize that Freeman just might be the only halfway decent hitter on the Braves next season. There won't be anyone to protect his spot in the lineup or drive him in when he gets on base. With players like Corey Kluber (ADP: 31.0) or Bryce Harper (ADP: 32.8) going close in the third, I'd much rather give Fielder the shot. Chalk up one victory for the Sleeper's Tool.
Albert Pujols vs. Prince Fielder
| Name | ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| Pujols | 49.0 | 34 | 614 | .269 | .330 | 78 | 26 | 87 | 4 |
| Fielder | 64.0 | 30 | 599 | .282 | .380 | 81 | 24 | 86 | 1 |
Fielder again eh? Just as with Freeman, this choice is a matter of risk tolerance. After all, at this point in their respective careers, a healthy Fielder is head and shoulders above Pujols. It's worth noting, however, that Pujols himself is hardly lock for health anymore. He's suffered from multiple lower body injuries over the past several seasons. In particular, plantar fasciitis, a recurring condition, has caused him significant difficulties in recent memory.
Pujols looks healthy now, but health isn't something you can just bank on with him. Acknowledging this track record, and opting for Fielder instead, makes it much easier to consider skipping the “safe” route in the fifth in favor of targeting someone like Corey Dickerson (ADP: 44.8) or Jose Reyes (ADP: 45.2) instead.
Adam LaRoche vs. Pedro Alvarez
| Name | ADP | Age | PA | BA | OBP | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| LaRoche | 169.0 | 34 | 593 | .239 | .343 | 73 | 25 | 77 | 2 |
| Alvarez | 274.0 | 27 | 561 | .242 | .317 | 65 | 26 | 75 | 6 |
The Draft Sleepers Draft Tool set its sights on another one of my favorite late round targets here. Pedro Alvarez is the one true talent 30 homer threat that no one seems to be talking about this year. Unless you play in an OBP league, our Draft Tool notes that his expected production isn't really all that different from LaRoche's. His ceiling on the other hand is much higher. Why not take a chance on a guy like Xander Bogaerts (ADP: 178.0), Jose Fernandez (ADP: 178.0), or Javier Baez (ADP: 176.0) instead? Hand me Alvarez at the end of the draft and sign me up for that team.
All RotoBaller readers can use the 2B/SS ADP Draft Sleepers Tool (also in the upper right corner of site). And to get full access to all positions (SP, OF, 1B/3B) you can just...
