First Base Dynasty Rankings, Prospect Rankings, Buys, and Sells for Fantasy Baseball

Eric Cross provides his prospect and dynasty rankings for the first-base position and discusses players to buy or sell at the position entering the second half of 2024.

After starting this series with the catcher position last article, we'll now shift 90 feet up the right-field line and dive into the first-base position today.

As usual, this position is led by longtime stars who are now in their early-to-mid 30s. Most of the time, that three being the first digit of a player's age makes that player less desirable in dynasty leagues, but that's not usually the case here at first base where we see players hold top-end value longer than at other positions. Even someone like Freddie Freeman holds firm in the top-3 as he approaches his 35th birthday as there have been no signs of his production slowing down.

Below, you'll find my top-25 dynasty first-base rankings, top-15 first-base prospect rankings, and tiers for each of those rankings, along with four first basemen to either buy or sell in dynasty leagues right now. All other positions can be found here.

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First Base Dynasty Rankings

Note: My dynasty rankings factor in proximity and short-term impact, so that's why you'll see Kyle Manzardo ahead of Xavier Isaac in my dynasty rankings but behind in my prospect rankings.

Tier 1: Bryce Harper

Tier 2: Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Triston Casas, Josh Naylor

Tier 3: Cody Bellinger, Vinnie Pasquantino, Spencer Steer, Alec Bohm, Christian Walker

Tier 4: Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Kyle Manzardo, Xavier Isaac, Samuel Basallo

Tier 5: Yandy Diaz, Spencer Torkelson, Nathaniel Lowe, Michael Busch, Luis Arraez, Salvador Perez, Ryan Mountcastle

Tier 6: Jake Cronenworth, Andrew Vaughn, and others

First Base Prospect Rankings

Tier 1: Xavier Isaac, Samuel Basallo

Tier 2: Kyle Manzardo, Agustin Ramirez

Tier 3: Tyler Black, Tyler Locklear, Joey Loperfido, Ben Rice

Tier 4: Deyvison De Los Santos, Ralphy Velazquez, C.J. Kayfus, Bryce Eldridge, Moises Ballesteros

Tier 5: Jhonkensy Noel, Tre' Morgan, and others

Names to Buy/Sell

MLB Buy: Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

Ever since his 2022 rookie season, the numbers for Vinnie Pasquantino haven't stood out by any means. He slashed .247/.324/.437 in 2023 and is currently sitting at .233/.310/.409 this season with eight home runs in 323 plate appearances. However, the metrics under the hood are still pretty encouraging and hint that Pasquantino's production should improve moving forward.

Vinnie Pasquantino got all of this one. 🤌 #Jackie42 pic.twitter.com/900qGhexee

— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2024

For starters, Pasquantino has had a zone contact rate above 90% and an overall contact rate above 82% in all three seasons so far, including career-best 92.3% and 85.6% marks, respectively, this season. Pasquantino actually has the worst strikeout rate of his career this season, but he's still only striking out 13.3% of the time. His quality of hard-hit rate and AVG EV have also bounced back to his rookie-season levels. It would be shocking to see someone with this level of contact/power to still be hitting .233 at season's end. The time to buy is now.

MLB Sell: Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays

Well, 2023 was nice, wasn't it? We had been waiting for Yandy Diaz to break out for what felt like a decade and he finally did so last season, slashing .330/.410/.522 with a career-best 95 runs, 22 home runs, and 78 RBI. Finally! But unfortunately, Diaz has reverted back to his old ways this season and it's quite possible that 2023 will go down as his career year.

In 80 games so far this season, Diaz is slashing .275/.332/.392 with seven home runs. His contact metrics are still elite and he's still posting a 92.3 mph AVG EV and 48% hard-hit rate. However, Diaz's barrel rate has dropped back down to 5.8% from 9.5% last season while his ground-ball rate has risen from 52.2% to 58.2%. This just shows that even hitters with higher contact and quality of contact metrics can be limited due to a higher ground-ball rate.

Prospect Buy: C.J. Kayfus, Cleveland Guardians

When discussing the most complete hitters with the highest floors in the minors right now, C.J. Kayfus' name has to be in that discussion. Since he was drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft, all Kayfus has done is hit and get on base at an extremely high clip.

In 2024, he's currently slashing .339/.439/.615 with 16 doubles, 13 home runs, and walking 12.5% of the time between High-A and Double-A. The recent bump to Double-A a few weeks ago hasn't phased him in the slightest either as Kayfus is slashing .343/.444/.702 with six home runs in 19 games at the level.

He did it again!#Guardians 22yr old (1B/OF) prospect C.J. Kayfus with his 2nd HR of the game for Akron a 2-run shot in the 9th inning at Altoona! For Kayfus he now has two multi HR games over his last 4 games played and 13 long balls on the season!

Last 4 games:

5-16 4R 1(2B)… pic.twitter.com/qfYbpKG8aC

— Guardians Prospective (@CleGuardPro) June 27, 2024

When he was drafted, many considered Kayfus' hit tool to be above-average to plus, but not many graded his power tool favorably, most throwing a 40 or 45 grade on it. And while he still doesn't project as a "masher," I do believe Kayfus has enough power to hit around 20-25 home runs annually to pair with a high AVG and high OBP. He's been one of the biggest prospect risers this season, regardless of position.

Prospect Sell: Abimelec Ortiz, Texas Rangers

This section is more of a "prospect drop" than "prospect sell" as you probably wouldn't get much for Abimelec Ortiz right now due to his immense struggles at the plate so far this season. In fact, his struggles have been so notable that he fell entirely out of the top 15 of my first-base prospect rankings after flirting with top-5 status at this position entering the season following a 2023 season where he slashed .294/.371/.619 with 33 home runs in 454 plate appearances between Low-A and High-A.

However, Double-A has been far less kind to Ortiz. In 232 plate appearances this season, Ortiz is slashing a gut-wrenching .182/.250/.311 with only five home runs. Both his contact and quality of contact have taken a hit this season and Ortiz is also walking 3.5% less often than he did in 2023. As a first-base profile with no speed, Ortiz is going to have to stand out with the bat to become an impactful fantasy bat, and I'm not sure that's going to be the case.

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