Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Finding Under and Overvalued 1B Using Expected Draft Values


We've been rolling out our Expected Draft Values series, starting with Nick Mariano's look yesterday into some undervalued players, and we followed it up this morning with Nick's look at overvalued playersThis afternoon, we're going to give you some undervalued and overvalued players at first base.

As a quick primer, Expected Draft Value is the value you would historically expect, on average, from a given draft slot. In other words, Expected Draft Value lets you put a stat line next to every pick in the draft... if the player you draft performs better than expected, you get positive value. If the player you draft performs worse than expected, that's negative value. As we all know, a fantasy draft is all about maximizing the potential positive value from every pick.

For example, we can say that "if you draft a power + average hitter 97th overall, your Expected Draft Value should be a line of .285-26-76-75-4. That's your 'break even point'. If you draft a player at 97 who performs better than that, you win, or at least put yourself one player closer to winning.  For a full explanation of our Expected Draft Value research, see Nick's article's from yesterday, linked above. With the introduction out of the way, let’s dive into some undervalued and overvalued first basemen!

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Undervalued First Basemen to Target

Joey Gallo - 1B/OF, TEX

NFBC ADP: 102
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 102nd: .245-31-89-78-5
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .220-42-100-88-6

Analysis: Gallo is projected to obliterate the return we would expect from the 102nd overall player. If he reaches his projection, he would be fair value as early as the 65th pick in your draft, so there is potentially quite a wide margin of profit to be had. RotoBaller's rankers aren't as bullish on Gallo as ATC/The Bat, mostly because of his batting average downside.

Gallo has never hit above .209 in his big-league career and has a whopping 38% career strikeout rate; both of these stats limit Gallo’s potential to reach his projected counting stats. Despite the apparent flaws in his game, Gallo is still worth reaching for several rounds ahead of his ADP given his projected value. If he can manage to cut down on his strikeout rate, even a little, then Gallo will help you dominate in three categories, which will more than offset his overall low batting average.

 

Justin Smoak - 1B, TOR

NFBC ADP: 230
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 230th: .250-29-73-58-1
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .245-29-80-76-1

Analysis: Talk about value! Based on the projections, Smoak is projected to be a steal at pick 230. His projections value him at around pick 150, which would be significantly better than both his NFBC ADP and RotoBaller rank. Smoak’s 2018 strikeout rate of 26.1% jumped above his career mark of 23.7%, which raises concern, especially as he enters 2019 at age 32.

This concern, coupled with the current state of the Blue Jays lineup make RotoBaller slightly lower on Smoak compared to ATC/The Bat. That being said, fantasy players can feel comfortable taking Smoak as much as five rounds earlier than his ADP depending on their team needs. His profile isn’t exciting, but he is slated to provide great relative value in 2019.  

 

Overvalued First Basemen

Ian Desmond - 1B/OF, COL

NFBC ADP: 142
Expected Return for a Power+Speed Hitter Drafted 142nd: .256-18-61-75-20
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .258-17-64-70-17

Analysis: Desmond isn’t projected to underperform his draft position by all that much, but the stats he is projected to underperform in are important ones. His batting average, RBI, and run projections place his value at around the 150 pick range for power + speed guys, but his HR and steal projections place him roughly in the pick 180 to 190 range.

Desmond has always been a decent source of steals, but he will be 33 years old entering the 2019 season. At some point, his wheels will start to slow down, so there is no guarantee he will significantly help you in this category. As for the power, Desmond is a notorious ground ball hitter (52.6% career rate), limiting his potential HR value even in Coors Field. What’s more, Desmond did hit 22 HR last season but did so at an inflated 24.7% HR/FB rate compared to a career 14.7% clip.

Negative regression can be expected, which decreases the likelihood of him contributing as much in that category. Desmond is slated to be a power and speed dual fantasy threat, but his underlying batted-ball profile coupled with his age make him overvalued in 2019. Look to take him a few rounds later than his ADP to protect yourself from getting burned.

 

Max Muncy - 1B/2B/3B, LAD

NFBC ADP: 118
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 118th: .254-32-84-74-3
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: .247-28-79-77-4

Analysis: Nick talked about Muncy yesterday, but I'm going to dive a little deeper since he's a sexy name. Max Muncy came out of nowhere in 2018 and was a fantasy All-Star, and his 2019 ADP certainly reflects that. His projections, however, slate him to finish slightly lower than his ADP, and there are some questions surrounding whether he can hit his projections. His projections place him around pick 126 to 130, which is only about a round lower than his current ADP. Let’s take a closer look at Muncy’s 2018 stats to see how likely he is to meet his 2019 expectations.

A few stats stand out from Muncy’s 2018 campaign. First, he posted an excellent walk rate (16.4%) and a lackluster strikeout rate (27.2%). Both of these stats are in line with Muncy’s career numbers (14.9% and 25.6%) and last season was his first successful one. The walk rate is great, but a high strikeout rate is always a cause for concern. Two other stats that stand out are Muncy’s HR/FB rate and average exit velocity.

His HR/FB rate was a massive 29.4%, which was third highest amongst hitters with at least 450 AB and was significantly higher than his career mark of 21.7%. He also hit the ball hard throughout the season (average exit velocity 90.1 MPH) and barrelled up the ball 16.9% of the time, which was in the top one percent in the league. Muncy excelled out of his mind in 2018, and, while he could do it again, fantasy players could protect themselves from him not meeting his projections by waiting at least a round before drafting him.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Week 14 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 14... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 14 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 14 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 14 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is a game-time decision. Will Fuller (hamstring) is expected to miss Week 14. Adam Thielen (hamstring) has officially been ruled out. Le'Veon Bell (illness)... Read More


Fantasy Football Mailbag - Q&A for Week 14

This article's content may vary week-to-week, but generally, it will be answering questions fielded from either the @RotoBallerNFL twitter account or my personal one (@RotoSurgeon). This week, the focus is on start/sit questions, and there were plenty. Every week, many of us struggle with which quarterback to start, or who to flex, and I am... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 14

Welcome to our Week 14 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Monday Night Fantasy Football Starts/Sits - Week 14

Finally, we had a good fantasy matchup last week. And now, as punishment, we get this. The Eagles against the Giants is a good rivalry game. But for fantasy? Not so much. Even key players Saquon Barkley and Carson Wentz have been severely disappointing in 2019. The game is not going to be something to... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 14 Will Fuller (hamstring) is expected to miss Week 14. Adam Thielend (hamstring) has officially been ruled out. Le'Veon Bell... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 14

In Week 13, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were the high-end options that had great matchups. Adams had a huge two-touchdown game while Hill only came up with 55 scoreless yards, falling victim to game flow as the Chiefs led from start to finish, scoring a defensive touchdown in the process. Several of the wide receivers... Read More


Week 14 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Week 14-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

The playoffs are here, and that means we're going to do things a little differently. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 14

Welcome to Week 14, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football playoffs. These player selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

If there were a dozen people left in a survivor pool this past week, odds are those pools are down to just several. The upsets began Thursday when the Bills beat the Cowboys, and continued Sunday when the Dolphins and Redskins won as 10-point underdogs. If you're somehow still alive in your pool with just... Read More


Week 14 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are beginning in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning a championship.... Read More


Fantasy Football Playoff RB Handcuffs: Add Them Now!

The fantasy football postseason has begun, so it’s time to re-evaluate your depth, especially at running back. With only three weeks left on most fantasy scoreboards and each matchup possibly being your last, there is no more time for stashing players for potential contributions later. You also cannot waste roster space on guys who will... Read More


Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 14

Week 13 just served to remind us all that anything can happen in the National Football League and that you can't ever look past the New York Jets when you're trying to lose. The Cincinnati Bengals learned that lesson on Sunday, beating the Jets handily in a game that wasn't even as close as the... Read More


Playoffs Panic Room? Outlooks for Slumping WRs and RBs

As your fantasy football playoffs open, some of your projected starters have not performed up to expectations in recent weeks. But knowing their track records of production in the past and/or earlier this year, it may be hard to sit them. You want reassurance on some of these suddenly lackluster players before the postseason begins.... Read More