Fantasy Reflections: Jose Altuve Coming Up Short

Kyle Bishop looks at the latest cautionary tale for anyone thinking about not drafting Mike Trout first overall, and whether Jose Altuve can salvage his fantasy season.

First of all, let me apologize for the title. (Only because I feel like I should, though...not because I'm actually sorry.)

Okay. Jose Altuve. He has been disappointing! I know it, you know it, the American people know it. People who currently can't agree that the sky is blue are capable of setting aside their differences, looking at their roster, and saying, "Man, Altuve is killing me."

Fantasy baseball: Can it save America? Reader, it cannot. But it can distract us, as it always has, from whatever bullshit is happening in the real world.

Et Tu, Jose?

Altuve was, of course, a consensus top-two pick. Some fantasy owners were even making the argument that he should go first overall in drafts ahead of Mike Trout. Much like Clayton Kershaw last year, or Bryce Harper in 2016, things are, uh, not going well for you if you did that. Don't get cute, folks. If you land the first overall pick, just take Trout and be glad that fortune has smiled upon you this day. Anyway, Altuve hasn't been bad, exactly - he's hitting .313, after all. It's just been a shockingly pedestrian season for him so far otherwise. He's only hit two home runs, stolen four bases in five attempts, and his run production is down. So regardless of where you took him in the top five - and if you didn't spend a top-five pick, you did not get Jose Altuve - this has been a painful experience.

The good news is that xStats thinks he's been getting pretty unlucky. After three straight years of overperforming his expected wOBA, he's currently underperforming by 25 points. His slugging percentage should be 90 points higher. His HR/FB% stands at a Billy Hamilton-esque 3.7%.  Most of his batted ball data is fairly steady. The distribution skewing away from his pull side and toward the middle of the field is the major discrepancy, and that could certainly be playing a role in the power outage. Altuve is swinging through pitches just a little bit more often, but it hasn't kept him from being a big plus in batting average. It seems fair to expect improvement over the remainder of the season from him at the plate, and he remains a top-3 hitter in a dangerous lineup so the run production ought to tick up accordingly.

As for the lack of steal attempts, that merits a bit more concern. While his sprint speed is exactly the same as it has been the last three years, it's not hard to imagine Altuve running less often for various reasons. Trying to save a little wear and tear on his body makes sense. Having tapped into his power, not feeling like he needs to run as often to provide value to his team - could be. He's approaching the point in the aging curve where steals tend to begin falling off a bit. Also worth noting is that Altuve was just 7-for-14 after the All-Star break last year.

There's a lot of baseball left, and Altuve had a couple of more human months even during last year's MVP-winning performance. He just didn't have them consecutively at the beginning of the season. You may not get full value on your purchase price, but it would be foolish to sell low with a preponderance of the evidence pointing to better days ahead. For Jose Altuve and his many beleaguered fantasy owners,  the worst is likely over.

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