January 14, 2018

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood is on a new team for the 2018 MLB season. Connor McEleney assesses his fantasy baseball value and early ADP.

The Cubs wanted some starting pitching depth so they signed Tyler Chatwood to a three-year deal worth $38 million back in early December. Most likely sliding in behind Jose Quintana on the Cubs rotation, Chatwood’s presence on the tail end provides the Cubs with a nice blend of experience and upside. After all, this upcoming season will be Chatwood’s seventh in the big leagues even though just turned 28 in December.

Any time a 28-year-old starting pitcher signs a big deal with a potential playoff team, the fantasy community perks up. That hasn't necessarily been the case for Chatwood, though. Fantasy managers probably expect more of the same from Chatwood in 2018: middling production that occasionally intrigues enough desperate fantasy managers who need a convenient streaming option.  

This signing hasn't drawn the attention of casual baseball fans, but Chatwood’s new role on a strong Cubs team bodes well for fantasy gamers looking for deep-round value. He’s not young and he’s not typically thought of as having immense upside, but there are some aspects of his game that should garner the interest of deep league fantasy managers everywhere.

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A Glimmer of Upside

A quick dive into the shallow end of Chatwood’s profile reveals the makeup of a perfectly league-average pitcher. He owns a career 4.31 ERA buoyed by a 4.58 FIP, he struggles with strikeouts, as evidenced by a 6.09 K/9, and he allows too many walks. There’s a reason he’s not being drafted in most fantasy leagues. He doesn’t have many impressive strengths and he doesn’t have any glaring weakness.

A deeper, more thoughtful peek into his profile, however, reveals some positive signs.

Chatwood has posted abominable numbers pitching at home throughout his career, due in no small part to primarily pitching at Coors Field. When pitching at home, Chatwood’s numbers implode. He has a career 5.25 ERA at home, he allowed a .292 opponent BA, and as a result, his numbers were substantiated by a 4.94 FIP.

Chatwood’s road starts are a completely different story. When pitching away from Coors, Chatwood posted a 3.31 ERA, a 4.19 FIP, a 0.71 HR/9 (as opposed to a 1.14 HR/9 at home), and opponents hit .238 against him. Chatwood is clearly more effective away from Coors.

Has the Coors Field pitching curse stunted our perception of Chatwood? Is he actually much better than we think he is? Those questions will be answered this season, so you should into look acquiring Chatwood if you believe his arrow is pointing in the right direction. Don’t be surprised when a 28-year-old veteran lands a starting job on a good team and starts producing at a high level. Crazier things have happened than Chatwood being relevant in fantasy.

His contact stats remain league-average across the board and his strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired, but considering his prime age, his solid role on a great team, and his road numbers, fantasy managers operating in deep leagues shouldn’t hesitate to draft Chatwood in the waning rounds of the draft.

More 2018 Player Outlooks