RADIO
Brandon's fantasy hockey risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 2 of the 2026 season. He identifies players with rising and falling fantasy values.
Hey, RotoBallers! Finding an advantage in fantasy hockey is never easy, and things move faster than you think. The key to sustaining a winning advantage is utilizing the waiver wire and making the key trades to bolster your team. Identifying players in the midst of a breakout or in a big slump is key to navigating the waiver wire.
Below are top options to acquire via trade and the waiver wire, as well as players to watch who are underperforming after the opening week of the 2026 NHL season.
Be sure to follow RotoBaller on X for all of our league-winning content and me @df_solutions. Also, use discount code SOLUTIONS for 50% off any Premium Packages and get access to our Team Sync platform with customized lineup tools, projections, and more based on your league settings. Let's dive in! Note: All statistics referenced are updated as of Monday, October 6.
NHL Metrics Glossary
ixG = Individual Expected Goals
iSCF = Individual Scoring Chances For
iHDCF = Individual High-Danger Chances For
xGF/60 = Expected Goals For Per 60
SCF/60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60
HDCF/60 = High-Danger Chances For Per 60
Fantasy Hockey Risers - Trade Targets to Buy
Players rostered in 40% or more of Yahoo leagues
Vasily Podkolzin (LW, RW) - Edmonton Oilers - Rostered 70%
Vasily Podkolzin has been the only player to stay on the top line for the Edmonton Oilers after they started the 2026-2027 lineup carousel. Others who have come and gone include Zach Hyman (LW, RW), who is currently injured, Rostered at 87%; Isaac Howard (LW), Rostered at 1%; and now Leon Draisaitl (C, LW), Rostered at 100%.
Draisaitl is the only player to have stayed since being promoted to the top line. Podkolzin is taking advantage of his opportunity as the top-line mainstay.
He has produced three goals, two assists, five points, a +3 rating, 13 shots on goal, 23.1 shooting percentage, three power-play points, and 13 hits in his first three games. He is also averaging three more minutes a game than he did last year.
VASILY PODKOLZIN!!!
ABSOLUTE CINEMA IN OIL COUNTRY 🤯 https://t.co/DWwsLkiAzJ
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) September 30, 2026
He isn’t just producing points, though. His underlying metrics are showing his growth in the prime role next to teammate Connor McDavid. Podkolzin ranks in the top 10 percent of players in ixG (0.78), Shots (nine), iSCF (eight), iHDCF (six), Shots/60 (13.74), GF/60 (9.51), xGF/60 (5.62), and SCF/60 (57.08) all of which are very impressive marks.
He is also in the top 20 percent in HDCF/60 (16.91). Podkolzin is a top target to acquire if a fantasy manager needs offense and an early-season "buy-high" candidate.
Luke Evangelista (LW, RW) - New Jersey Devils - Rostered 43%
Luke Evangelista is an interesting player to discuss. The young winger has now played his first two games in a Devils sweater, and he doesn’t have much to show for it.
Unlike Podkolzin, Evangelista's case for being a "riser" rests entirely in his underlying metrics, not the box score.
He has generated one assist, one point, 0 +/-, seven shots on goal, zero power-play points, one hit, and two blocked shots. After having a breakout year in 2025-2026 with the Nashville Predators, Devils fans have high expectations for their newly acquired winger.
However, fantasy managers have plenty of reason to hope he can take the next step.
Evangelista is in the top 10 percent in ixG (1.35), Shots (seven), iSCF (10), iHDCF (six), Shots/60 (11.33), xGF/60 (5.78), SCF/60 (51.78), and HDCF/60 (21.03). Evangelista still has a chance to land on the top line for the New Jersey Devils, but for now he will remain the focal point on the second line.
With plenty of untapped potential, Evangelista is worth buying low in standard leagues or picking up off the waiver wire in very shallow formats.
Fantasy Hockey Risers - Waiver Wire Targets
Players rostered in less than 40% of Yahoo leagues
Cole Perfetti (LW, RW) - Winnipeg Jets - Rostered 30%
Cole Perfetti is one of the few players who should be seeing dozens of waiver wire bids. The young winger has versatility, listed as both a left and right winger, already bringing roster value through position flexibility alone. However, his role with the Winnipeg Jets at the start of the season is what makes it all worth it.
Perfetti has been promoted to the Jets' top line, averaging two more minutes a game than last year.
In his first two games this season, he has produced one goal, three assists, four points (with all four coming on the power play), -2 +/-, six shots on goal, a 16.7 shooting percentage, three hits, and two blocked shots.
This is certainly going to be remembered as one of the Cole Perfetti goals of all time 🤪 https://t.co/PVcTLZBAYv
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) October 4, 2026
His early production is justified by his individual and team metrics. He is in the top 10 percent of players in ixG (1.71), iSCF (12), iHDCF (seven), GF/60 (seven), xGF/60 (9.32), SCF/60 (68.29), and HDCF/60 (29.77).
He is also in the top 20 percent in Shots/60 (10.51). A spot on the top line and the number one power-play unit, plus his overall production, is pushing Perfetti to the top of the waiver wire this week.
Thomas Novak (C, LW) - Pittsburgh Penguins - Rostered 20%
Thomas “Tommy” Novak may not be Perfetti, but he's another player worth adding off the waiver wire. The center-winger hybrid is producing well on the power play. In his first two games this season, he has generated two goals, two assists, four points, 2 +/-, three shots on goal, 66.7 shooting percentage, two power-play points, and two blocked shots.
He isn’t just producing on the power play, though, as his points total through two games and his metrics prove.
Novak is in the top two percent in GF/60 (9.75). He is also in the top 30 percent of players in xGF/60 (4.01), SCF/60 (35.1), and HDCF/60 (15.6). His individual production is even better. He is also in the top 20 percent in iSCF (six).
It is only a matter of time before Novak takes an even bigger jump and produces like a true second-line center. Those in deeper formats needing a sleeper forward with scoring upside should target Novak with confidence.
Fantasy Hockey Fallers
Trevor Zegras (C) - Philadelphia Flyers - Rostered 80%
When do fantasy managers and Flyers fans alike pull the alarm? Trevor Zegras set a new career high in Goals (26), points (67), shooting percentage (15.6), and power-play points (23) last season. He struggled at several points of the season too. He is starting the 26-27 season similarly. The young center has one assist, a -1 rating, with just two shots on goal.
His underlying metrics are not any better either.
Zegras is in the bottom 40 percent in Shots (two), GF/60 (2.12), SCF/60 (26.55), and HDCF/60 (10.62). He is also in the bottom 50 percent in xGF/60 (3.1). Due to his lack of production, he has been sent down to the second line in hopes of a spark.
While he has showcased plenty of talent over the years, he has yet to show it to start the season, and he is on the brink of becoming benchable in leagues (and even cut in very shallow formats) until he starts producing.
Shayne Gostisbehere (D) - Carolina Hurricanes - Rostered 93%
Speaking of benchable players, Shayne Gostisbehere still hasn't shown up. The veteran offensive defenseman FINALLY registered his first point of the season, scoring the game-winning goal in the 3-2 overtime win at Wells Fargo Arena on Saturday.
He now has one goal (on the power play), -2 +/-, five shots on goal, 20 shooting percentage, one hit, and two blocked shots through three games. Despite his lack of production, his sky-high shooting percentage is promising, even if it isn’t achievable long-term.
Gostisbehere or ‘Ghost’ is in the top 40 percent or higher amongst all players at all positions in ixG (0.39), iSCF (four), GF/60 (3.13), xGF/60 (4.2), and SCF/60 (32.37). His HDCF/60 is concerning, though, sitting in the bottom 40 percent (10.44).
The longstanding playmaker remains the focal point on defense and the power-play for the Carolina Hurricanes, especially as they try to navigate young defenseman Alexander Nikishin, who is away from the team amid a trade request.
As long as Gostisbehere remains on the Hurricanes' top power-play unit, he should be rostered, but the red flags are starting to show.
Ivar Stenberg (LW) - San Jose Sharks - Rostered 59%
Ivar Stenberg is a player worth stashing on your watch list, but until he shows signs of production, it is worth keeping him there unless you have a free roster spot on your bench. The rookie playmaker has produced one assist (on the power play), -1 +/-, zero shots on goal, and one blocked shot in his first two games.
Despite his talent and top-five draft selection, Stenberg has yet to show that level in his first two games, and some could argue it is more or less due to the lack of teammate quality.
When on the ice, Stenberg ranks in the bottom 10 percent of players in Shots/60 (zero), xGF/60 (1.61), and SCF/60 (12.33). He is also in the bottom 40 percent of players or worse in GF/60 (2.05) and HDCF/60 (8.22).
It isn’t time to sound any alarms yet, as it is only two games for the rookie, but he will need to start producing, especially if he wants to remain with the Sharks for the entire season. Stenberg is nothing better than a stash, if you have the capability. He currently skates on the third forward line, which greatly hinders his upside.
Quinton Byfield (C) - Los Angeles Kings - Rostered 64%
Quinton Byfield is more or less flagged as a faller due to the high expectations for the young center. After Anze Kopitar announced his retirement, everyone, including Byfield, knew it was now ‘his’ team. However, after two games, he still hasn't adjusted. He has generated one goal, one assist, seven shots on goal, a 14.3 shooting percentage, one power-play point, two blocked shots, and an underwhelming -3 rating.
His shooting percentage is promising. It marks his second-best career shooting percentage—his best was 14.6 percent in 2024 in the small sample.
The major concern is the lack of Assists (one), Shots/60 (10.08), and GF/60 (4.32), especially considering the talent he anchors on the top line for the Los Angeles Kings.
He does, however, sit in the top 10 percent amongst all players in Shots (seven), iSCF (nine), iHDCF (four), xGF/60 (5.21), and HDCF/60 (20.17), suggesting better days could be ahead.
Until he shows positive offensive production with goals and assists to speak for him, he isn’t offering much in redraft fantasy hockey leagues, given that he is a minimal contributor in "banger" categories.
More Fantasy Hockey and Analysis
