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Welcome back RotoBallers to our AFC & NFC Championships matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. After eight teams battled it out last week, the final four are set. Both No. 1 seeds moved on. Although it was a lot closer for the San Francisco 49ers, who will now host the No. 3 seed Detroit Lions for the opportunity to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens, who dominated the second half of their contest, host the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who came out on the winning end of a Sunday night thriller. There are lots of great storylines to dig into, which we'll happily indulge in below. Note that all the matchup data is from the regular season.
For anyone new to the column, we'll analyze both the AFC and NFC Championship Games, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups for whatever format or competition you're in. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. I want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There are tons of fun playoff challenges and DFS competitions you can join this time of year with great prizes. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - AFC Championship
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -4.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (20.25) vs. Ravens (24.25)
Pace: Chiefs (20th) vs. Ravens (27th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (8th), -5.4% Rush (17th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 32.1% Pass (5th), 18.3% Rush (1st)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (5th), -1.7% Rush (27th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -28.8% Pass (1st), -14.3% Rush (7th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Chiefs (20th) vs. Ravens (2nd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Chiefs (21st) vs. Ravens (14th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Chiefs (11th) vs. Ravens (6th)
EPA/Play Allowed: Chiefs (6th) vs. Ravens (2nd)
WEATHER: This game is forecasted to have some rain and mild wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson became the first player to throw and run for over 100 yards and two touchdowns, setting yet another record. After a slow start, he rallied his team at halftime and crushed the Texans. Kansas City's defense is among the best in the NFL and likely the best remaining after the Ravens, but they're no match for Jackson, who can beat you in many ways. He's the unquestioned conductor of this offense in a way that not many other signal-callers are. He'll get his shot to take down the champs and punch his ticket to the Super Bowl, proving the narrative that he can't win in the playoffs wrong. He's the QB1 this week in what could be a sneaky shootout.
Ravens TE
Mark Andrews sat last week out as a precaution. There were also rumors the team believed they could win without him, which might be viewed as cocky, but turned out to be true. Regardless of the reasoning, Isaiah Likely delivered once more with a nice grab in the end zone where he out-muscled the defender. Andrews is trending towards playing, which would somewhat cap the value of both tight ends, pushing them to fourth and fifth in the rankings.
UPDATE: Andrews is off the injury report and confirmed to play.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Pacheco pounded the rock 15 times for 97 yards and a score, taking the pressure off the passing attack. In total, they ran the ball 24 times for 146 yards, averaging over six yards per carry. He also chipped in as a receiver with a 14-yard reception. Baltimore's defense is a tougher test, but they'll make a concerted effort to establish the run to avoid becoming one-dimensional against the league leaders in sacks. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire as his only competition for touches, Pacheco sits as the RB3 this week, although there is some concern about his health given that he's yet to practice.
UPDATE: Pacheco got in a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. There doesn't seem to be much chance of him missing but the weekend will confirm his status. The Chiefs will be without their starting guard, Joe Thuney.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
King Kelce returned to the throne, at least for one night. And no we're not talking about his brother Jason, who stole the show by hammering back beers with Bills Mafia in the stands. He made the most of his six targets, hauling in five of them for 75 yards and two touchdowns, one of which he was completely wide open. It's worth noting that Buffalo was missing several key defenders, forcing some of their backups to cover Kelce. The Ravens are better equipped to slow him down, causing him to slot in as the TE2.
Matchups We Hate:
Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, & Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL)
Jackson only aired it out 22 times because they had a massive lead in the second half. However, the real issue is that these three are all behind Zay Flowers and the tight ends in the pecking order on a run-heavy team. Beckham Jr. has declined during the latter part of their season and playoff run and Bateman has yet to prove he's above average, leaving Agholor, who found the end zone, as the best bet out of this bunch. It's a tougher week for depth at wide receiver because there are really only five reliable players. Agholor is in the mix as one of the next five.
Chiefs Secondary WRs
It's a similar story here, and one we've been telling for weeks. Outside of Rashee Rice, it's tough to trust the array of secondary wideouts. Whether it be Justin Watson, who failed to register a catch, Mecole Hardman Jr., who fumbled at the goal line, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had made meaningful contributions with two big receptions. Like Agholor, Valdes-Scantling would be the one to target, fitting into that WR6 to WR10 range.
UPDATE: Kadarius Toney has been ruled out, which means they'll rely on the quartet mentioned above.
Other Matchups:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes made the critical throws in the big moments to come out on the winning end of another classic with Josh Allen. It was a thriller. He scrambled when he needed to and played arguably his best game of the year. From a stats perspective, he threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns with 19 rushing yards, which is decent. It's unlikely he puts up 300 and three on the Ravens, who have been nearly impossible to score points against, but he's the QB2 behind Jackson because we know he's built for this time of year.
UPDATE: The Chiefs will be without their starting guard, Joe Thuney.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Rice appeared to hurt his hamstring during their win on Sunday, landing him on the injury report this week. He practiced in full, so there's no concern about him missing their matchup, but it does explain his lower production in Buffalo. Kelce's impressive outing also impacted his output as typically he's led the way in targets, which he did not. You'd imagine Baltimore will make Kelce a focal point and has better personnel to do so, creating a bounce-back opportunity for Rice as the WR4.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Flowers and Rice had almost the same disappointing stat line. Flowers's was 4/41. Despite leading the team in targets and receptions, he wasn't asked to do much because they won so convincingly and ran the ball for 229 yards. The Chiefs are a much better run defense, which increases the upside for Flowers, who is right in front of Rice as the WR3.
Justice Hill & Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
As mentioned, the Ravens imposed their will with 42 carries for 229 yards and two scores. Unfortunately for these two, Jackson accounted for 100 of those yards and both touchdowns. Edwards, who rushed for 40 yards, was seen on the sideline later in the game in favor of Dalvin Cook, who iced the game with eight attempts for 23 yards. Meanwhile, Hill combined for 77 yards as a runner and receiver. Hill has the better role in a more competitive contest that will require additional passing attempts while Edwards has the goal line role, but neither belongs the top tier this week, which contains four tailbacks.
Injuries:
Skyy Moore (knee)
Isiah Pacheco (ankle/toe)
Kadarius Toney (hip)
Matchups Analysis - NFC Championship
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -7.5
Implied Total: Lions (22) vs. 49ers (29.5)
Pace: Lions (19th) vs. 49ers (32nd)
Lions Off. DVOA: 26.7% Pass (7th), 8.9% Rush (4th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 57.7% Pass (1st), 17.3% Rush (2nd)
Lions Def. DVOA: 6.5% Pass (16th), -18.0% Rush (1st)
49ers Def. DVOA: -9.4% Pass (4th), -10.1% Rush (15th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Lions (29th) vs. 49ers (3rd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Lions (5th) vs. 49ers (10th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Lions (8th) vs. 49ers (1st)
EPA/Play Allowed: Lions (21st) vs. 49ers (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
The rain was abundant, the Packers were hungry, and Brock Purdy couldn't find his stride. As he has many times before, McCaffrey put the team on his back and willed them to victory. In the second half when things were grim, he scored on a 39-yard run to get them back in it and then again in the fourth quarter to give them their final lead. He also dominated through the air, earning 12 targets, seven of which he hauled in for 30 yards. He earned the second-most targets of any player among the four remaining teams last week. He was and is incredible, making him automatic as the RB1.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle was anointed the king of the mountain last week and came through with four receptions for 81 yards and a score. It was the only passing touchdown Purdy threw. His day could have been bigger if the passing attack had been more efficient. Detroit's passing defense is their primary weakness, plus Deebo Samuel is banged up. We know when one of the two wideouts is sidelined that Kittle's role increases, so he slots in as the TE1 this week in a contest that could feature a lot of fireworks offensively.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk made a few timely catches with Samuel out, but after McCaffrey and Kittle, there wasn't much left to go around. It's a fantastic matchup, so Aiyuk deserves the WR2 spot with no shutdown CB to face despite shaping up as the primary wide receiver.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy completed just 59% of his passes for 252 yards and a touchdown. He led them down the field on the final drive to keep their title hopes alive, but he was fortunate not to come away with any turnovers, one in particular that should have been a pick-six to Darnell Savage Jr. While it's fair to question how he'll handle the pressure of the NFC Championship Game, the Lions gave up the second-most passing yards and fifth-most passing touchdowns this year. Purdy is behind the two AFC signal-callers, but he's capable of outproducing them, at least through the air.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
The only player who earned more targets last week than McCaffrey was St. Brown with 14. He's been clutch all year, and against the Buccaneers was no different. He caught eight passes for 77 yards and a score, leading the way. He projects to match, if not best, those totals this week in a high-scoring affair. He's the WR1.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta looked healthier than the week before for three quarters before seemingly slowing down toward the end of the game. He was excellent, tearing apart Tampa Bay across the middle of the field. He's still on the injury report, which is to be expected, but he drops behind Kelce and Kittle as the TE3.
Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (RB, DET)
The dynamic duo did it again with 26 total touches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Gibbs accounted for the majority of it with nine carries for 74 yards, a touchdown rushing, and four receptions for 40 yards receiving. Gibbs is extremely dynamic as an all-around player, making him the RB2. Montgomery doesn't possess the same skill set but can grind out first downs and is always a threat near the end zone. He's the RB4.
UPDATE: Starting guard Jonah Jackson has been ruled out as expected while Frank Ragnow, their center is good to go.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns, committed no turnovers, and took just two sacks. All in all, he did everything that was asked, sustaining drives and taking care of the football. They'll lean on their rushing attack as usual, but they'll need another mistake-free outing if they're going to knock off the 49ers. The one worrisome factor is that he's on the road, which is where he's really struggled. However, San Francisco's vaunted pass rush has slowed down and they lack an elite secondary. He's the WR4 but has a shot to go off.
UPDATE: Starting guard Jonah Jackson has been ruled out as expected while Frank Ragnow, their center is good to go.
Josh Reynolds & Jameson Williams (WR, DET)
Reynolds followed up his revenge game against the Rams with a trip to the end zone against the Packers. Williams earned more targets (four) and totaled more yards (35), but failed to hit the big plays we know he can. It's worth calling your shot on him in this one while Reynolds is the safer secondary option.
Jauan Jennings or Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
After Samuel went down, Jennings took his place as the No. 2 receiver. Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud III also saw some snaps, but it was Jennings who became their go-to. He had five receptions for 61 yards, which puts him into that WR6-WR10 range. He'll be near the front of it if Samuel is out. If he's active, then Jennings would be toward the back of it. Samuel could pay off with usage in high-leverage situations if he's on the field, so he's the WR5 assuming he plays.
UPDATE: Samuel is off the injury report and ready to suit up. He'll likely be at less than one hundred percent, but he's still valuable even if his touches are limited.
Injuries:
Deebo Samuel (shoulder)
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