November 13, 2015

Ed Gorelik analyzes Week 10 sleepers available on your 2015 fantasy football waiver wire. These NFL running backs (RBs), wide receivers (WRs), tight ends (TEs) and quarterbacks (QBs) are fantasy football sleepers.

Waiver Wire Adds for Week Ten

The ninth Sunday of the season is through and for the fourth time this year the Cowboys have lost a one score game that Tony Romo did not play in. Speaking of quarterback losses, Aaron Rodgers just lost back to back games for the first time since week 5 of his 2010 season. That's a long time.

Week 9 saw Ben Roethlisberger fall for the second time this season, some primetime dominant performances from Tyler Eifert and Cole Beasley (surprising right?), and saw Antonio Brown challenge one of the longest standing records in the NFL, although he ultimately couldn't reach it.

Below are some waiver wire pickups and sleepers for Week 10 who can have a potential impact for your teams. My piece won't cover all waiver wire adds and targets each week, as there are just too many with all the league types out there, but I'll be highlighting and prioritizing the biggest impact players. Additionally, be sure to check out many more great RotoBaller articles and waiver wire analysis pieces at each position throughout the week, including risers/fallers, deeper league sleepers, rankings and more.

Week 10 Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Derek Carr (QB, OAK)

63% Owned on Flealflicker

Derek Carr is quickly becoming one of the NFL's budding stars as a passer, and more importantly for our purposes one of the league's better options in fantasy. After a bumpy start including three under 15 point games in his first five weeks, Carr has come out from the bye and posted a minimum of 23 points every week since, making him the 2nd highest scoring fantasy QB during that time and 3rd highest average scorer. With games against the passing defenses of the Chargers, Jets, and now Steelers - he's played against a variety of difficulties and managed to produce against all of them. It's might be safe to say that this is Carr's breakout season, and he might be worth more than some of the current QBs being rostered. His next matchup comes against the Vikings, who hold the 17th ranked passing defense on DVOA. He should be owned in nearly any league.

Blake Bortles (QB, JAX)

58% Owned on Fleaflicker

Another second year QB, although Bortles development isn't going nearly as smoothly as Derek Carr's - he's producing fantasy points nearly every week this year. In fact, right now he's about to jump past Alex Smith and become the 9th highest scoring QB so far this year. Bortles might still be turnover prone - but now that he has developed talent surrounding him like Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas, and even TJ Yeldon, he's also becoming kind of touchdown prone. Add in some of his rushing abilities, and you're padding on an extra 3-4 points each week onto your total. It also helps that he plays in one of the worst divisions in football, and that gives him a lot of easy games. Next week, he'll face the Ravens defense which has a DVOA of 27th against the pass and allows well above league average in yardage to both WR1s and WR2s.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ)

29% Owned on Fleaflicker

Ryan Fitzpatrick is the model of inconsistency when it comes to on-field play, but has somehow been decently consistent when it comes to fantasy scoring. Also prone to rushing and throwing touchdowns along with interceptions, why would he be here this week? Well, if you're in deep need of a backup quarterback or 2QB starter and enjoy narratives - this week Fitzpatrick returns to play against a team he once use to be considered the potential savior for. Lost in the Rex Ryan returns to the Jets narratives, is the revenge game brewing for Fitzpatrick. If you feel like taking an upside risk that presents a decent floor, here's one.

Other Quarterback Options: 

• BUF QB Tyrod Taylor - 48% owned - Finally back in the starting lineup, Tyrod was a QB1 up until his injury. There's still a good chance he returns to QB1 status for the rest of season but that might have to wait a week, since he faces the New York Jets defense with few weapons to rely on.
• TB QB Jameis Winston - 38% owned - Winston started off the year living off garbage time but he's starting to really come into his own as he gets more comfortable. Perhaps the second half of the season is a lot kinder as he's had two back-to-back ~20 point weeks.
• TEN Marcus Mariota - 43% owned - You knew he'd be mentioned here after the kind of game he had. I'd consider putting him above others, but really, considering the situation he faced (leagues worst defense in DVOA) there's reason to expect regression as he now faces the leagues 2nd best defense in DVOA. Mariota's upside is still intriguing.

More Options: Joe Flacco, Josh McCown, Matt Cassel

Week 10 Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

Karlos Williams (RB, BUF)

47% Owned on Fleaflicker

Karlos Williams has been one of the biggest surprises in this years rookie RB crop. He came out of the draft with nearly no hype (in fact, most of what I've seen on him was negative) and barely saw his stock rise during the preseason. During the OTAs, it was reported that the Bills were impressed with his progress but he still had to beat out Buffalo favorite Fred Jackson before he could gain relevance. Well, the Bills ended up cutting Jackson, and Williams still only barely saw his stock rise. Since the season started though, he's become more and more valuable as his role behind LeSean McCoy has grown and grown.

McCoy has had a bit of an injury issue in two of his three previous seasons and is now experiencing more injury issues in 2015. Although McCoy is expected to play this Thursday against the Jets, it wouldn't be surprising if at this pace he's on his way to his third injury this year. Even playing behind McCoy, Williams' lowest scoring week has been a 9.7 game in week 2, while averaging 14.8 points in games played this season. Williams is the must grab waiver option as McCoy heals, and offers a realistic FLEX play value throughout the rest of the year.

James Starks (RB, GB)

40% Owned on Fleaflicker

James Starks has been able to outplay top five fantasy pick Eddie Lacy this season - and although it seemed like Lacy had returned last week, Starks was quick to re-establish himself as the best option for the Packers after he was able to get healthy again. Although there's no guarantee that he'll really become the true lead back in this offense, he's found himself a regular number of carries per week. He has been the more productive rusher, while also showing value in the passing game that Eddie Lacy hasn't been able to offer this year. The Packers relied on Starks this week on eight passing targets, of which he caught six for 83 yards and a touchdown. Starks is a low end FLEX, with upside for more, and needs to be owned in every league.

Brandon Bolden (RB, NE) / James White (RB, NE)

19% Owned on Fleaflicker / 19% Owned on Fleaflicker

This section may be updated if news comes out before waivers go through.

Dion Lewis is currently undergoing an MRI for what's being called a "loose ACL", whatever that means. As injury news comes out detailing how long Lewis will be out for, the race will be on to find his replacement in this offense. Obviously, it's unlikely that either player can match the near RB1 value Lewis was providing. But just being in that role has some real value.

Here's a quick rundown of these two players battle for relevance:

During training camps, it was actually Brandon Bolden who was the front runner for the passing down job. However, when Lewis was declared out in Week 6 against the New York Jets, James White was his replacement and had a mediocre game. This week, it was Bolden who was active in place of White and he managed similar production with the only real difference being the touchdown. However, in his history with the Patriots, Bolden has taken on bigger roles and offers more versatility on the field.

Pay attention to news as it comes out this week about these two. There's plenty of value to be had as a passing option in this offense if one can overtake the other.

Update: It's currently reported that James White will get the first shot at the spot, making him a potential deep add in 12 team leagues. Boldin becomes more of a hail mary for desperate teams/deeper leagues.

Antonio Andrews (RB, TEN)

40% Owned on Fleaflicker

There probably won't be many weeks this season where Andrews faces a defense nearly as bad as the Saints, but at least when he does you can be sure that he'll be startable. Andrews was recently blessed by Mike Mularkey as the starter for the rest of the 2015, and although I have personal doubts about that happening, that doesn't mean you shouldn't take a chance on him. Andrews has been on this list for at the least the last three weeks, and he's finally put up a good enough performance to get noticed.

Theo Riddick (RB, DET)

27% Owned on Fleaflicker

Theo Riddick is the 15th ranked RB in PPR and is only 27% owned. That's insanity. He offers very little standard value, but needs to be owned in all PPR leagues immediately. Half PPR and full.

Other Running Back Options: 

• SF RB Shaun Draughn - 1% owned - Looks like Draughn will have his chance to become fantasy relevant as he was the main back this week for the 49ers. Although Gabbert is really unlikely to keep playing at a two touchdown, 0 interception pace, anyone who's starting is worth something.
• IND RB Ahmad Bradshaw - 13% owned - We're still waiting for Bradshaw's role to truly open in this offense, but we're already seeing flashes of the same 2014 player who was surprising fantasy owners last year.
• WAS RB Matt Jones - 52% owned - I was ground zero for the Matt Jones hype as I screamed to everyone who would listen that my #8 RB in the 2015 draft was bound to take over for Alfred Morris well before his preseason hype took form. Although it hasn't been able to take full shape yet, Jones has been far more productive than Morris (who projects to be a huge bounce-back candidate next year) and is still a worthwhile stash in deeper leagues where RBs are scarce.
• DET RB Joique Bell - 51% owned - Bell operated as the lead ground back in the Lions one game since firing OC Joe Lombardi.
• MIA RB Jay Ajayi - 24% owned - Ajayi is a significantly good NFL talent at RB and could form a strong 1-2 punch with Lamar Miller. He was just activated this week and saw five carries while producing 41 yards. He's also a high ceiling handcuff should Lamar Miller go down.
• TB RB Charles Sims - 58% owned - Perennially overrated by the fantasy community, Sims is a decent back playing behind a far better back. He offers some low-end PPR flex value, and minimal standard value outside of a handcuff.
• OAK RB Marcel Reece - 11% owned - More deep league punts, Reece has a chance to have his role expand with Latavius Murray suffering another injury.
• OAK RB Taiwan Jones - 4% owned - Just like Reece, who knows who's going to be the starter here with Murray gone? Jones has operated as his backup for the last few weeks.
• OAK RB Roy Helu - 13% owned - Helu's a great talent who has been on the inactive list for the Raiders for weeks. Maybe Murray's injury finally brings him back to relevance, I know I'm hoping it does.

More Options: Christine Michael, Thomas Rawls, Chris Thompson, Denard Robinson, Zac Stacy, Spencer Ware, Chris Polk, Rod Smith, David Cobb

Week 10 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

Brandon Lafell (WR, NE)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

I hate that I'm endorsing Lafell, but I have to. Despite career-long drop issues, the Patriots gave Lafell a chance when they signed him in 2014 and he has been surprisingly effective even though his drop issues have not subsided. Tom Brady doesn't seem to mind the drops as he feeds him with targets game after game, this time having Lafell see nine targets on which he had five receptions and 102 yards. Since rejoining the Patriots active roster, Lafell has seen at least seven targets per game and is bound to see his role grow since he provides the best outside threat on the team. The floor is low, but the ceiling is very high. He's a higher-risk FLEX play in nearly any league right now.

Davante Adams (WR, GB)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

It took a lot of time for Adams to come back to the field - and although his first day back on the job was entirely forgettable, his second actually had some value. Davante Adams is rejoining an offense that's desperately in need of an outside receiver to start doing some work. You'll be surprised to hear this, but the Aaron Rodgers led Packers offense is currently 25th in passing yards per game, mostly because the passing options for this offense haven't been able to perform. This team needs another player to step up, and although Adams might not be the right talent to do it, he's going to be given the opportunity to. At the very least, Adams should be on the bench any sized league.

Willie Snead (WR, NO)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

Snead's already well known, but yet his ownership feels barely significant for a player who's been impacting NFL games since Week Four. Snead's been averaging enough points per game the last five weeks to be a low end WR2 in any format. He needs to be owned, plain and simple - even if Brandin Cooks does emerge into his WR1 role. Brees doesn't run a one target offense.

Dorial Green Beckham (WR, TEN)

35% Owned on Fleaflicker

Oh boy, here we go believing in Dorial Green-Beckham again. With Kendall Wright out, DGB finally saw significant playing time and even made a difficult catch to help setup a game winning play. He also led the team in targets. Everyone knows who DGB is by now, but if you don't, the simplest thing to say is he's all upside. He can be a potentially dominant player in his NFL career, and there's still a chance for him to be dominant this year. Mike Mularkey already mentioned that he wanted to get DGB more involved last week and it showed, so hopefully it continues.

Kamar Aiken (WR, BAL)

25% Owned on Fleaflicker

Aiken was here last week, and he's going to be here again this week since the bye didn't help his ownership. Aiken has had at least 60 yards in all three games that Steve Smith was unable to finish along with 1 touchdown. In fact, generally speaking- in any game where Aiken has seen at least 6 targets he seems to put up a decent fantasy day (with the worst one being his last one at San Diego, with 6 catches on 6 targets for 62 yards.) Aiken's upside seems low, but volume is value.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

20% Owned on Fleaflicker

Crowder's been averaging 11.4 points over the last four games in PPR, putting him just outside a WR3 in PPR formats (42nd to be exact). That might not be flashy, but all of that production has just come from his fantasy floor. He's had zero touchdowns over the span, and just continues to put up decent work week after week with around eight targets averaged per game. DeSean Jackson's return might be seen as negative for Crowder, but personally, I'm a bigger fan when an offense gets better and opens it's field up. Jackson does exactly that and he doesn't take up a high volume of targets - he opens the field for players like Crowder to work in. He should be on the bench in PPR leagues, and is a high floor every week FLEX play.

Other Wide Receiver Options: 

• CAR WR Devin Funchess - 14% owned - This might get my pending membership to drafttwitter disapproved, but I like Devin Funchess. I'm still hoping he makes an impact and for the first time this year he managed to actually perform, catching his first NFL touchdown along with 70 yards on just four targets. Carolina's offense is begging for WR help, maybe Funchess can be it.
• CIN WR Marvin Jones - 58% owned - Jones is a fantastic player, but he is not getting the volume he needs as the third option in this passing game. He's a good bench stash simply in case of injury to either Eifert or Green, but he only offers some very low end FLEX play as a fill-in. The talent is there, but the situation just isn't right for him.
• HOU WR Nate Washington - 33% owned - Washington has had two big games the last two times he's seen the field. Can that continue? Probably not. But stranger things can happen. Riley Cooper was a WR2 once.
• DAL WR Cole Beasley - 7% owned - Beasley is coming off what has to be one of the best games of his career, but he's far from fantasy relevant on the weekly. He's a very low end bench stash whose floor is bad but might rise as Romo returns to this lineup.
• DET WR Lance Moore - 5% owned - Calvin Johnson is currently injured and he hasn't played well under injury for the past two years. Lance Moore might deserve a look in some deeper leagues as his replacement, since he's somehow managed to post three touchdowns in his last four games along with some decent yardage.
• ATL WR Justin Hardy - 4% owned - More super deep league sleepers, Hardy is slowly getting worked into this offense and has even been getting targeted in the red zone the last two weeks. This team needs more reliable pass catchers outside of Julio Jones.

More Options: Rishard Matthews, Cecil Shorts, Leonard Hankerson, Rueben Randle, Doug Baldwin, Bryan Walters, Albert Wilson, Dwayne Harris, Nelson Agholor, Tyler Lockett, Marquess Wilson,

Week 10 Tight End Waiver Wire Pickups

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (TE, TB)

50% Ownership on Fleaflicker

The hardest market to find waiver pickups is always at tight end. ASJ should be returning to the lineup next week (or soon), and should have the highest upside of any tight end you can find on the waivers.

Eric Ebron (TE, DET)

37% Ownership on Fleaflicker

In my opinion, the second best waiver option out there for this position. Ebron is somehow the 10th highest ranked fantasy tight end and yet only sees ownership in a third of leagues. With Calvin Johnson injured, Ebron should be looking at an increased workload since Calvin has shown in the last two seasons that when injuries strike, he becomes mortal again.

Other Tight End Options: 

• GB TE Richard Rodgers - 33% owned - The hype surrounding the second Rodgers in his rookie season has not come to fruition in his sophomore year. Still, in desperate leagues Rodgers plays with the best QB in the NFL and could start putting together touchdowns if the offense can become the machine it's used to being.
• SF TE Garrett Celek - 2% owned - This is flat out crazy, but if you're desperate enough at the TE position maybe Garrett Celek can be your savior. In his 3 games played without Vernon Davis he's had 3 touchdowns but a very low amount of yards. Maybe he can keep that up? Who knows.

More Options: Vernon Davis, Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, Jared Cook, Troy Niklas

Week 10 Defense (D/ST) Waiver Wire Pickups

Baltimore Ravens

48% Owned on Fleaflicker

Even though Blake Bortles scores touchdowns, he also throws a lot of turnovers and has been getting sacked the 11th most times in the league. The Ravens are certainly going to give up points this week (I mean, they aren't a very good defense at all) - but it shouldn't be surprising if they can keep their floor reasonable, with two or three sacks and a potential interception. For what it's worth, in John Harbaugh's career coaching the Ravens, they've only given up more than 20 points once after a bye week.

Oakland Raiders

5% Owned on Fleaflicker

Although understaffed, this unit is top five in run defense DVOA and should be able to stop the Vikings only real strength of the run game. As good as Bridgewater is, his offensive line is weak and the Raiders are filled with pass rushers from rising star Khalil Mack to fallen star Aldon Smith. And Bridgewater himself isn't exactly putting up mind blowing numbers. This defense has a chance to bring strong amounts of pressure on Bridgewater and force some bad throws this week, along with a few sacks against one of the leagues worst offensive lines.

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