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Saleh Awwad provides the fantasy football outlook for Green Bay Packers RB MarShawn Lloyd in 2024. Should Lloyd be a target in best ball, redraft, and dynasty leagues?
The Green Bay Packers selected USC running back MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was the fourth running back taken off the board behind Texas’ Jonathon Brooks, Florida State’s Trey Benson, and Michigan's Blake Corum.
While there was no clear-cut first-round back in this draft class, it was filled with quality guys who can immediately make an impact on RB-needy NFL teams. There was constant discussion leading up to the draft on who the best all-around running back was. Former scout and current NFL Network lead draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah had Lloyd ranked ahead of every other RB in the class, including Brooks.
Not only does Lloyd possess prominent explosiveness, strength, and agility when running the football -- he has also proven to be a reliable pass-catcher who can comfortably be on the field for all three downs. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Lloyd ran a 4.46 at the NFL Combine -- which tied for the sixth-fastest time among all RBs this year.
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"The comparison in terms of the body type and play style remind you of D'Andre Swift." - @MoveTheSticks
MarShawn Lloyd (@m_lloyd_2) is the newest @packers RB 🧀 pic.twitter.com/bRo2Gb1Ywe
— NFL (@NFL) May 16, 2024
College Career
After missing his freshman season with a torn ACL and playing as a reserve at South Carolina before finally starting in 2022, Lloyd decided to enter the transfer portal in 2023 before committing to USC. While the Delaware native did have a productive final season at South Carolina, he showed his true potential with the Trojans.
In 2023, Lloyd carried the football 115 times for 816 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground -- adding 13 receptions for 232 yards through the air. The volume was not there in comparison to the other top running back prospects from this class. Regardless, his ability to produce with limited touches was on full display at USC. Lloyd tied for the third-most yards per carry in the FBS at 7.1 among RBs with at least 100 carries in 2023.
Over the last two years, Marshawn Lloyd averaged 4.5 yards per carry on zone run calls and converted 27% of his runs into either a 1st down or a touchdown.
His 0.37 missed tackles forced per attempt rank in the top 5 in all of FBS football. https://t.co/03nsRdvzzU pic.twitter.com/Z4kjwMohNd
— Ross Uglem (@RossUglem) April 28, 2024
Another impressive element that boosted Lloyd’s draft stock was his level of play behind USC's offensive line. Despite the team having a top-10 PFF rushing grade in 2023, the run blocking rated at just 61.5 throughout the season. As an outcome, Lloyd finished with the highest PFF elusive rating from this draft class with a 177.0. This rating measures the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking they receive.
Some drawbacks that some scouts have expressed about the rookie as a prospect are his age and inconsistent ball security -- the USC product had three fumbles on those 115 attempts last season. If and when Lloyd corrects that issue, he will not have any problem getting on the field right away for Green Bay. Concerning his age, Lloyd’s lack of volume in college more than makes up for that.
NFL Situation
Lloyd enters a situation where he can come in and immediately operate as the team’s RB2 and third-down back. Green Bay did sign former All-Pro Raiders running back Josh Jacobs to a four-year, $48 million deal. Jacobs will without a doubt be the team’s primary runner. The team also gave RB AJ Dillon a one-year deal to return to the team.
However, the 26-year-old is coming off a more than underwhelming 2023 season, hence why Green Bay felt the need to bring in so much help with the departure of Aaron Jones. Amongst players with at least 165 carries last season, Dillon finished with the fewest yards per carry in the league at just 3.6 -- along with the fewest missed forced tackles. Despite having double-digit carries in nine of 15 games, Dillon’s most productive rushing game checked out at 76 yards.
The Packers clearly want to lean away from Dillon and implement Lloyd into the offense as quickly as possible. At least during his first season, third down and two-minute drills will be where Lloyd receives the most opportunity. While Jacobs has established himself as one of the most dominant runners in the league, Green Bay has operated from a committee in the backfield for years and this should not be expected to change significantly.
There’s no denying this type of talent
Marshawn Lloyd is one of the shiftiest backs in the class
Couldn’t tackle bro in a phone booth…pic.twitter.com/50qeRvtfOa
— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) February 1, 2024
Fantasy Football Outlook
Overall, Lloyd is an intriguing fantasy option that you should keep an eye on in all formats because of his draft capital and potential role during his first season.
He currently possesses an ADP of 145.6 and is ranked RB44 in Underdog’s season-long best-ball rankings.
Considering where he is going in drafts, you can take a shot on the rookie as your RB4/5 in best-ball drafts. While it is clear that Jacobs will be the backfield’s leader for the next couple of years, Lloyd is more than worth holding onto in all dynasty leagues regardless of his age.
The rookie RB is someone who will be very attainable in redraft leagues and could be a player to consider trading for midway through the regular season as his role continues to expand and Green Bay turns away from giving Jacobs 30 touches a week.
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