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Aidin Ebrahimi identifies four fantasy football QBs who could have more or less TDs in 2024. Managers should consider the regression potential of these players.
We've all heard it a billion times so far. "2023 was a down year for QBs." But when you look at the numbers, you see that teams this past year averaged slightly more passing yards (3,271.7) and touchdowns (23.6) compared to the previous season (3,701.2 yards and 23.4 TDs).
But still, this wasn't the best year for QBs when compared to other seasons. This is why a positive regression is expected, which is what usually happens after seasons with low passing stats. Still, though, you should lower your expectations just a little bit since we did have a (slight) positive regression in 2023. With so much movement throughout the offseason, we could see some QBs go off and have outstanding seasons, while some other QBs could crash down back to earth.
With that being said, let's look at two positive and two negative touchdown regression candidates at the quarterback position for 2024. QBs who started less than 13 games last year will not feature, and neither will C.J. Stroud (check here) and Bryce Young (check here) since I've already covered their potential for positive regression.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (Positive)
Everyone and their dog is predicting that Josh Allen -- 2023's overall QB1 who has finished as the QB1 in three out of the last four years -- will have a poor season in 2024 and have his first finish outside of the top three since 2019 (where he finished sixth). He just lost Stefon Diggs and had yet another heartbreaking playoff loss where his teammates let him down, so surely his stats will go down, right?
Well, I'm here to tell you that I think Allen is going to have his best season yet in 2024, especially now that Diggs is no longer around. Even though he finished as the QB1, he averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game, which is the lowest mark by an overall QB1 since Russell Wilson in 2017. Additionally, it was Allen's lowest FPG since 2019.
Josh Allen WILL win MVP this season
Book it.#BillsMafia | #BuiltInBuffalo | #GoBills pic.twitter.com/edBwd6pxiP
— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) May 6, 2024
This was mostly down to the sheer number of interceptions that he threw (18 picks), but his 44 total touchdowns (29 passing + 15 rushing) helped him finish as the QB1. While 44 total TDs does seem like a very high amount, he did surpass that total in 2020 with 45 total TDs.
Yes, Diggs is gone, and he was a massive part of Allen's early development. But don't forget that he is a massive headcase and Allen has outgrown him at this stage. His new WR room of Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Keon Coleman doesn't look too appealing at first glance. But we have to remember that great QBs like Patrick Mahomes can achieve QB1 finishes with subpar receivers, and Allen is certainly talented enough to do just that.
He's also spending a full offseason with OC Joe Brady, which will help him even more. This year is a great chance for Allen to silence all the doubters, approach 50 total TDs, and add another QB1 finish to his resume.
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (Negative)
This one's pretty easy to explain. Russell Wilson has looked like a shell of himself for the past three seasons dating back to when he suffered a finger injury during his last season in Seattle. His raw stats didn't look all that bad last year, but when you see the way that Sean Payton was utilizing him in Denver, you'd quickly realize that Wilson's best days are far behind him.
He averaged 4.5 air yards per completion, by far the worst mark of his career. Before you say this was bound to happen with Payton, this is worse than the 5.3 air yards per completion that Drew Brees was putting up in his 40s.
Justin Fields is gonna mess around and take that staring role from Russel Wilson pic.twitter.com/LHaah85PTT
— JR’s Rankings 🌰🅾️⭕️ (@jrs_rankings) May 24, 2024
Wilson now has to compete with Justin Fields, and even if he does win the starting job, he will have the smallest margin of error in the league. Whenever Wilson inevitably messes up, you just know that Mike Tomlin, who has never been more desperate in his entire career, will look over at Fields and bring him in Wilson's place.
This will obviously limit Wilson's snap count and might even prevent him from playing a few games as he might get dropped near the end of the season just like in 2023. I'll be shocked if Wilson manages to even come close to his 29 total TDs in 2024.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (Negative)
Derek Carr hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in three years. He just had a season with 25 passing TDs at the age of 32. The team around him hasn't improved and looks to be the third-best team in the division behind the Buccaneers and Falcons.
And to top it all off, he's disliked by New Orleans fans who want to see Jake Haener and/or Spencer Rattler be given a chance. This definitely doesn't look like a recipe for a disastrous season!
QBs Carr, Haener and Rattler throwing on the first day of OTAs #Saints pic.twitter.com/FVhBuymqzo
— Erin Summers (@ErinESummers) May 21, 2024
Furthermore, the situation in New Orleans is far from stable. Dennis Allen is under a ton of pressure and if he underperforms, he could get sacked midway through the season. Also, new Saints OC Klint Kubiak wants to run the ball more, telling WWL Radio ahead of the NFL Draft that they "just want to be grounded" and want to "run the football."
With stronger competition across the NFC South and a bigger emphasis on the running game, Carr will have to be at his best to throw for more than 25 TDs, something that he has only done thrice in his career.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (Positive)
Even during the worst season of his career as a starter, Patrick Mahomes still walked away with the Super Bowl MVP and is widely regarded as the best player in the world. Mahomes had a statistical anomaly of a season in 2023 in terms of drops, as 6.9% of his pass attempts were dropped.
This is despite the fact that his passing was more accurate than ever, as he averaged a career high in terms of on-target throw percentage (80.7%) and a career low in his percentage of bad throws (13.3%).
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to put on a show this year 🍿 pic.twitter.com/AgDLIHU5Q1
— PFF (@PFF) May 24, 2024
Yes, Rashee Rice has had a tumultuous offseason so far, but you can't deny his talent when he's on the field. Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy have joined the squad as well, and Mahomes' WR room already looks way better than it did compared to the last two seasons.
If he can win two consecutive Super Bowls with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as his WR2, then the sky is the limit with this receiving corps. Mahomes averages 39 TDs a season (17 games) throughout his career, so even if he plays at an average level (compared to his standards), he will easily crush the 27 total TDs that he accumulated in 2023.
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