Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Stat Outliers for Week 18 - Course Corrections Coming?

Triston McKenzie fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Welcome back to RotoBaller! I'm Jon Anderson, and today we are back for another edition of the OUTLIERS series. Every week (or so), we will be looking into the season-long and recent data to identify outlier data points. We will then dive into the numbers and talk about why those numbers are outliers, and what that means we should expect moving forward.

This will be helpful for fantasy purposes in identifying what player performances are unsustainable, on the negative or positive side of the coin. Baseball is such a random game that we constantly see box score outputs that just don't really make any sense given the underlying inputs. We will identify a handful of these every week, which should help us decide on what players to buy or sell.

It will also just be a general fun time learning more about the stats and indicators, what they mean, and how to interpret them. This is my bread and butter, so I'm ready to start spreading it. Let's do the thing!

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Sign Up Now!


Outlier: Matt Carpenter's Home Run Rate

NOTE: This article was written and published before news of Matt Carpenter's foot injury.

One of the best indicators of home runs is barrels. This season, 85.2% of homers have been classified as barrels. That means the more barrels you hit, the more homers you should expect to hit.

Home ballpark and swing speed do factor into the equation and not all hitters are equal even on these limited inputs, but it remains a good thing to check to get an idea about what's happened in the past and what might happen shortly.

League-wide, 47% of barrels have gone for a homer. This number goes up or down based on the time of year (hotter months = higher rate of homers), ballpark (the two extremes being Cincinnati and Detroit), pull rates (pulled barrels are more likely to go for a homer), and other things. All of these are things to keep in mind before we look at the plot, but now that we've said it – let's get to the plot.

What we see here is each hitter's Brl/PA plotted against their HR/PA. As one goes up, so should the other, so here you go:

The biggest outlier we can find is Matt Carpenter. He has homered 15 times in 152 plate appearances, homering once every 10.1 PA's on average. The fact that he leads the league in home run rate made it a pretty good bet that he'd turn up on the outlier list here, but he's really taken it to an extreme. His barrel rate of 13.7% is quite good, but it's nowhere near the league leaders. We have six hitters with season barrel rates above 20% and 14 more above 15%.

Now, Carpenter does fit the mold of a guy we should expect to be a bit of an outlier here. I say that because he pulls the ball a ton (57% of his batted balls are pulled), he hits a ton of fly balls (40% FB% – fourth-highest in the league), and plays in Yankee Stadium (fifth-best park for turning left-handed barrels into homers).

So we should expect Carpenter to be well below the trend line, but he's taken it to an extreme that I just don't believe can keep up. We've seen a slow-up already, as Carpenter has hit just .229/.321/.438 with two homers and posted a 5.1% Brl% in his 56 plate appearances since the All-Star break.

It's reasonable to try to trade him away now if someone will give you a nice return (although your league's trade deadline has likely passed as well, so sorry about the late tip here).


Outlier: Eloy Jimenez's Home Run Rate

Referring to the scatter plot above, Eloy Jimenez finds himself on the other side of the outlier list. He has a 17.8% Brl% this year in 128 plate appearances, that's good for 9th-best in the entire league.

He has also limited strikeouts to 24%, just a touch above the league average. Despite those two good numbers, he has homered just six times in those plate appearances. It's still a strong home rate of one homer every 21 PA's, but it seems like that mark should be better.

There are eleven hitters in the league meeting these criteria:

  • 100+ PA
  • K% between 20% and 28%
  • Brl% between 14% and 22%

Of those hitters, Eloy's 21.3 PA/HR is fourth-worst (Max Muncy, Ryan Jeffers, and Julio Rodriguez are ahead of him). Eloy is swinging the bat incredibly well right now, and I expect him to be one of the game's best power hitters down the stretch.


Outlier: Ronald Acuna Jr.'s Summer Slugging

Here's some of what Acuna has done since June 1st

PA Brl% Hard% K% BB% Cont% xwOBA xSLG
235 12.3% 48.1% 19.6% 9.4% 74.2% .360 .505

Those numbers are all very strong, and yet Acuna's slugging percentage over that time sits at just .396. He's homered just seven times since June 1st.

I think a lot of fantasy managers with Acuna on their team may be thinking his lackluster performance this year has to do with the injury stuff, and while that might explain some of it – there's certainly been plenty of bad luck here as well. Acuna's profile looks really strong right now, and I would expect a strong finish to the season for him.

By the way, the aforementioned Matt Carpenter is on the other extreme here with a differential of .234 between his slugging and expected slugging (.746 actual vs. .512 expected).


Outlier: Triston McKenzie's Run Prevention

We see a pretty big differential between McKenzie's 4.02 xFIP and his 3.16 ERA, but that's not what called my attention to him. I checked pitchers with strikeout rates below 25% and ground-ball rates below 40% to see what pitchers were also posting low slugging percentages, and he's the #1 guy on this list.

Now, this isn't necessarily "good luck" because you can certainly do some things to make the fly balls you give up hurt less, and that stuff can be sustained – but overall I think McKenzie is really not earning the .362 SLG against he's posted this year.

Over 20 starts, McKenzie has struck out just 24.4% of the batters he's faced (about average), and he's walked 6.7% of them (that's a good number). Most of the batted balls he's given up have been in the air (33.5% FB%, 24% LD%), and he's given up a high barrel rate of 10.4%.

Despite that, his home run rate is solid at 27.6, and the slugging percentage against is really low as we already mentioned. The expected SLG paints a prettier picture since it's at just .415, which isn't awful – but the xERA of 3.89 shows a pretty big gap between expectations and reality. I think McKenzie needs to start striking hitters out at a higher rate (which he can do and has done) to maintain this strong ERA.


Outlier: Brandon Drury's wOBA

A lot of people were worried about Drury's fantasy value if he were to get traded away from Great American Ballpark. That was a completely reasonable worry, as Cincinnati has arguably been the best ballpark in the league this year for hitters. However, it seems there's a bigger worry in Drury's profile right now.

Since June 1st, Drury has put up a .380 wOBA, quite a bit above his .289 expected wOBA. Here are the 15-day rolling averages of wOBA and xwOBA from my own personal Tableau dashboard.

You can see that at the beginning of the year, he was outperforming his xwOBA, but not a ton, and the two lines crossed over a few times there. However, since around June 9th, the wOBA line (red) has really crushed the xwOBA (green) line.

Over the last three seasons, the overall park factor on Great American Ballpark is 111, adding 11% to hitter production. Comparatively, Petco Park is at 95%, taking 5% off. That's quite a big swing for Drury, who we should have already been worried about given the wOBA outpacing the xwOBA by such a big margin.


And that's it for another edition of outliers! Thanks for being here!

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts


Marcus Morris14 mins ago

Sr. Gets Some Minutes On Friday Night
Luke Kennard26 mins ago

Stays Hot From Deep On Friday
Shohei Ohtani2 hours ago

Flirts With No-No
Jonathan Taylor4 hours ago

Good To Go Against Titans
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Has Impressed Blazers
Mackenzie Dern4 hours ago

Set For Main-Event Showdown Saturday
Will Barton4 hours ago

Misses First Preseason Game
Paul Reed4 hours ago

Is Becoming More Versatile
Francisco Trinaldo4 hours ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Randy Brown4 hours ago

Facing Dangerous Veteran On Saturday
Luke Kornet4 hours ago

Likely To Miss Two Weeks
Trevin Jones4 hours ago

Hoping To Get Back On Track
Daniel Santos4 hours ago

Can Turn Around His UFC Fortunes
Max Fried4 hours ago

Leaves Friday's Start With Illness
Isaiah Roby5 hours ago

Has Impressed Spurs
Charlie Blackmon5 hours ago

Plans To Pick Up 2023 Player Option
Spencer Strider5 hours ago

Not Throwing Yet
Ketel Marte5 hours ago

Placed On Injured List Friday
Zack Britton5 hours ago

Leaves Friday’s Game With Injury
Hunter Renfrow5 hours ago

To Miss Second Straight Game
Dallas Cowboys5 hours ago

Michael Gallup Cleared To Make Season Debut
Corey Seager7 hours ago

Back In Rangers Lineup Friday
Charlie Morton7 hours ago

Agrees To Contract Extension With Braves
Theo Maledon7 hours ago

On The Move To Houston
MLB7 hours ago

Game 2 Of Phillies-Nationals Doubleheader Postponed Friday
New England Patriots7 hours ago

Mac Jones Ruled Out This Weekend
Raoni Barcelos7 hours ago

In Need Of A Win To Snap Losing Streak
Ty Jerome7 hours ago

Traded To Houston, Expected To Be Waived
Jesús Sánchez7 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez Returns To Marlins Lineup
José Urquidy7 hours ago

Jose Urquidy Probably Won't Start Again This Season
Keenan Allen7 hours ago

To Miss His Third Straight Game
Derrick Favors7 hours ago

Traded To The Rockets
Simeon Woods Richardson7 hours ago

Likely To Pitch For Twins This Season
Boston Celtics8 hours ago

Celtics Sign Blake Griffin To One-Year Deal
Josh Bell8 hours ago

In Lineup Friday
D'Andre Swift8 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out For Week 4
Nelson Cruz8 hours ago

Still Out In Game 2 Friday
J.T. Realmuto8 hours ago

Taking A Seat In Game 2 Of Doubleheader
Lance McCullers Jr.8 hours ago

Eyeing A Return On Monday
Yandy Díaz8 hours ago

Yandy Diaz Hitting Leadoff On Friday
Yordan Alvarez9 hours ago

Returns To Lineup Friday
Don Shainis9 hours ago

Making UFC Debut On Main Card
Francisco Alvarez9 hours ago

Making MLB Debut Against Braves
Sodiq Yusuff9 hours ago

Looking For Second Win Of 2022
Matt Carpenter9 hours ago

Has A Chance To Play Next Week
DJ LeMahieu9 hours ago

Starting At Third Base Friday
John Castaneda10 hours ago

Hoping To Remain Strong Inside The Octagon
Viacheslav Borshchev10 hours ago

Hoping For A Rebound Performance Saturday
Mike Davis10 hours ago

Returns To Action To Open Up The Main Card
David Montgomery11 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Giants
Marquise Brown11 hours ago

Rondale Moore Questionable For Week 4
Gabe Davis12 hours ago

Says He's Playing Sunday
New England Patriots12 hours ago

Mac Jones Questionable, Brian Hoyer Likely To Start Week 4
Cleveland Browns13 hours ago

Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney Questionable For Week 4
Julio Jones13 hours ago

Chris Godwin, Julio Jones To Be Game-Time Decisions
Detroit Lions13 hours ago

DJ Chark Good To Go
Gabe Davis13 hours ago

Aggravates Ankle, Still Expected To Play
Jarvis Landry13 hours ago

Questionable For Week 4
New Orleans Saints14 hours ago

Alvin Kamara Given Another Questionable Tag
Dalvin Cook14 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 4
Christian McCaffrey14 hours ago

Listed As Questionable
Detroit Lions14 hours ago

Amon-Ra St. Brown Ruled Out For Week 4
D'Andre Swift14 hours ago

Likely Out For Week 4
Christian McCaffrey16 hours ago

Spotted At Friday's Practice
1 day ago

Sean Couturier Avoids Surgery, Considered Week-To-Week
1 day ago

Scott Perunovich Remains Under Evaluation
1 day ago

Nico Hischier Set To Be Re-Evaluated In 10 Days
1 day ago

Rasmus Sandin Ends Contract Standoff With Maple Leafs
1 day ago

Trevor Zegras Exits Preseason Game With Injury
1 day ago

Jordie Benn, Carl Dahlstrom Join Toronto's Growing Injury List
3 days ago

Calvin Petersen Considered Day-To-Day
3 days ago

Jeff Carter Listed As Day-To-Day
3 days ago

Ilya Mikheyev Week-To-Week With A Lower-Body Injury
3 days ago

Spencer Knight Gets Three-Year Extension From Florida
3 days ago

John Tavares Out For At Least Three Weeks
3 days ago

Brock Boeser Out For Three To Four Weeks
Jamal Murray4 days ago

Feels Back To Normal
Kawhi Leonard4 days ago

To Participate In Training Camp
Ivica Zubac4 days ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Zion Williamson4 days ago

Feels Great Heading Into Training Camp
Ben Simmons4 days ago

Cleared For Practice
Marquese Chriss4 days ago

Not Ready For Training Camp
P.J. Tucker4 days ago

Fully Active For Training Camp
Zach LaVine4 days ago

Should Have No Restrictions
Dean Wade5 days ago

Agrees To Three-Year Contract Extension
Markelle Fultz5 days ago

Fractures Toe
Chase Briscoe6 days ago

Begins Texas Near The Rear
Christopher Bell6 days ago

To The Middle Again For Texas
Alex Bowman6 days ago

Under The Radar A Bit Sunday
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Back On Bubble As Texas Looms
Ross Chastain6 days ago

Has To Feel Fortunate For Texas
Austin Cindric6 days ago

On The Bubble To Start Segment Two
Daniel Suarez6 days ago

Familiar With Texas Success
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Starts Ninth From Texas On Sunday
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Loves Intermediate Tracks Like Texas
Austin Dillon6 days ago

Another Chevy Qualifying Strong
Chase Elliott6 days ago

In Solid Spot At Texas
Michael McDowell6 days ago

Not A Surprise At Texas
Tyler Reddick6 days ago

Pushes Hard To Start Fourth Sunday
William Byron6 days ago

Starts Third For Texas Race
Joey Logano6 days ago

Nearly Takes Pole At Texas
Brad Keselowski6 days ago

Snares Pole At Texas
1 week ago

Patrick Kane Keen To Remain In Chicago
1 week ago

Nicklas Backstrom Believes He Can Play This Season
1 week ago

Nolan Patrick To Miss The Entire 2022-23 Season
1 week ago

Jake Muzzin Misses Start Of Training Camp
1 week ago

Nick Suzuki Out Of Action For A Couple Of Weeks
1 week ago

Gabriel Landeskog Will Miss The Start Of The Season
1 week ago

Andrew Copp Misses Training Camp
1 week ago

Timothy Liljegren Out For At Least Six Weeks
1 week ago

Jason Robertson Misses Start Of Training Camp
Andre Fili2 weeks ago

Takes Split Decision In A Very Close Contest
MMA2 weeks ago

Song Yadong Falls Short In Main Event Due To Massive Cut
Cory Sandhagen2 weeks ago

Scores Impressive TKO Win
Chidi Njokuani2 weeks ago

Suffers TKO Loss Saturday
Gregory Rodrigues2 weeks ago

Earns TKO Victory On Saturday
Bill Algeo2 weeks ago

Suffers Close Split-Decision Loss
Alen Amedovski2 weeks ago

Drops Fourth Straight Fight
Joe Pyfer2 weeks ago

Impresses In UFC Debut With KO/TKO Win
Tanner Boser2 weeks ago

Drops A Split Decision Saturday
Rodrigo Nascimento2 weeks ago

Ferreira Secures Close Victory
Chase Elliott2 weeks ago

Has Subpar Qualifying Effort Friday
Kyle Busch2 weeks ago

On The Outside Looking In At Bristol
Tyler Reddick2 weeks ago

Under Heavy Stress At Bristol
William Byron2 weeks ago

On Cruise Control For Bristol
Joey Logano2 weeks ago

Begins 15th At Bristol Motor Speedway