Rest-Of-Season Starting Pitcher Rankings (September Update)

September 1, 2019

Updated rest of season starting pitcher fantasy baseball rankings for 5x5 roto mixed leagues in July. Our RotoBaller staff's SP rankings feature the #1 most accurate industry expert, Nick Mariano.

With the MLB regular season winding down, we begin to close in on the final stretch of your fantasy baseball championship run. We've collected some of the brightest baseball minds here at Rotoballer to deliver you our rest-of-season rankings analysis to help you secure your league title. Now that fantasy football is nearly in full swing, take advantage of distracted managers in your league by staying active on the waiver wire and staying on top of trending hitters.

Starting pitchers have been the bane of fantasy owners' existence this year. Whether you side with Justin Verlander or not, it's obvious that offense as a whole, especially home runs, are up. That's been bad news for many SP that were drafted in the first few rounds. If you are still in the thick of the race in your mixed roto league, it's critical to find the right pitchers to trust so your ratios don't tank.

Throw those preseason ADPs out along with any preconceived notion of how these players were going to perform - we've taken into account injuries, team context, Statcast metrics, and gameplay observations in order to provide you with the most current rankings possible. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the very latest rankings which are continually updated. Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 SP rest-of-season rankings for September.

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Updated SP Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (September)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can follow his ranks all season long. Win big with RotoBaller in 2019! 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

Justin Verlander continues to be impossibly good at age 36, with a 2.77 ERA and 35% K-rate over 179 innings. But Verlander is somehow getting better as the season goes on, going 5-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 43.7% K-rate since the All-Star break. And then there's Gerrit Cole, who has a 2.25 ERA since the break and a 39.7% K-rate that's second only to his teammate Verlander. Cole has now struck out double-digit batters in six of his last nine starts and is in the midst of one the great contract-year performances in sports history. Listen to Teddy KGB and pay that man his mo-ney.
Here's the simplest way to explain why the Astros are the prohibitive World Series favorites; in a seven-game series, Verlander and Cole will start at least four of the games…Good luck, everyone!

The problem with having a transcendent year like the one that Mets starter Jacob deGrom had in 2018, is that anything but a repeat-performance is seen as disappointing. deGrom may not be as dominant as he was last year but he’s pretty close, posting a 31.9% K-rate that’s virtually identical and a 15.7% swinging-strike rate that’s actually increased by a half-point. And his 2.56 ERA might be almost a run higher than last year’s ridiculous 1.70 ERA, but it’s still a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 162 innings. So, no complaining allowed.

Tier Two

Welcome to the party, pal! After spending two years as an “ace-in-waiting”, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Walker Buehler is waiting no more after a dominant 2019 thus far. Buehler has only gotten better since his impressive rookie campaign, increasing his strikeout-rate by two points, while shaving two-points from his walk-rate and posting double-digit strikeouts in four games this season, including a 15 K shutout against the Padres on August 3. Ascend, young ace. Ascend.

In a tier full of the old-guard, it might be a 26-year-old Luis Castillo who’s one of the best of the bunch for the remainder of 2019. Over 154 innings this year, Castillo is 12-5 with a 3.04 ERA with 179 strikeouts. Castillo remains held back by a 9.7% walk-rate, but improvements may already be here; he has a 4.0% walk-rate in his nine starts since the beginning of July while keeping his K-rate steady.

Injury concerns are the only reasons that Max Scherzer is slumming it in Tier 2, instead of taking his rightful place near the top. Having spent nearly 50 days on the injured list this year, Scherzer finally returned on August 22 to pitch four innings ( and 71 pitches), allowing one run and striking out three. While there were no reported setbacks, Scherzer has said that he’s not out of the woods yet and will likely not be throwing with maximum effort in order to avoid reinjuring himself. Danger Will Robinson. Danger.

Looks like I’m the low-man on Dodger pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu but it’s not talent or performance that lands him in this tier, as his 12 wins, 2.00 ERA and 0.98 WHIP say that he obviously belongs higher. But this time of year, it’s less about what you’ve done, and more about what lies ahead. And that might be more rest for Ryu, as his 152 2/3 innings are the most for the 32-year-old leftie since 2014. With his worst performances of the year coming in his last two starts, in which he gave up a total of 11 runs in 10 innings – allowing five home runs – Dodger management could be very careful in managing his health and innings as September rolls around.

We’re all on the same page with rooting for Cleveland’s Shane Bieber to challenge Justin to a Highlander-style fight to the death, right? If there can only be one Bieber, then hopefully the one who has an 11.0 K/9 and 3.23 ERA over 175 innings will win. After an impressive rookie campaign, Bieber now has a 30.1 % K-rate on the season which is a six-point increase over 2018’s mark, while pitching the third-most innings in baseball in 2019.

Tier Three

Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger started the year off in spectacular fashion, going 1-0 in his first two starts with 22 strikeouts in 12 innings. But then injuries cost him over two months, and after allowing 12 earned runs in his first two starts back, the world seemed to forget about the breakout that was promised by his dominant start to 2019. But since those two bad starts, Clevinger has been all that was promised and more, going 8-0 over his last 10 starts, with a 2.11 ERA and 34.6% K-rate over 60 innings. If not for the early-season injuries, we could very well be placing him in the same conversation with Walker Buehler and Luis Castillo.

It’s been an up-and-down season for Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola, with his owners spending much of the first half of the season wondering what exactly was wrong, be it injuries or stuff. Through his first 15 starts, Nola was 6-1 with a 25.1% K-rate but had an unsightly 4.89 ERA and 10% walk-rate. But Nola seems to have turned a corner since the middle of June and is now 6-3 through his last 13 starts, with a 2.27 ERA, 28.4% K-rate, and 7.6% walk-rate.

Welcome to the official Jack Flaherty Hype Train section! And judging by our rankings, it’s clear to see that I’m the conductor. Why is Flaherty’s 3.32 ERA and 28.7% K-rate (which are almost identical to Flaherty’s marks in 2018) deserved of a hype train? Wasn’t Flaherty pretty bad after entering the season as a favorite to make the leap to Ace? Well, a 4.90 ERA in his first 17 starts wasn’t exactly good but Flaherty at least kept his strikeout stuff, posting a 26.4% K-rate over his first 90 innings pitched. But in his last nine starts, Flaherty hasn’t just turned a corner…He’s lapping a lot of the field. Since July 7, Flaherty is 6-1 and earned his only loss giving up only one earned run in seven innings against the Giants. In these last 56 innings, Flaherty has 70 strikeouts and a 0.80 ERA that's best in the majors over that period, crushing Jacob deGrom’s measly 1.04 ERA. It may have taken two-thirds of the season, but it’s now time to lay Jack and let the hype wash over you.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tiers Four

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Because this ranking for Cincinnati ne Cleveland pitcher Trevor Bauer might actually be too high, given his recent performances. Bauer started off the season fine, posting a 2.45 ERA through his first seven starts in April. But May didn’t bring flowers for Bauer, only horrors, as the Twitter commando has been on a swift decline ever since the calendar flipped. In 22 starts since (which includes a mid-season trade), Bauer has a 5.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and even threw a ball over the centerfield fence in a fit of rage. Not a great trifecta. And after giving up 18 ER in his last 11 innings, Bauer owners have to wonder what exactly they are in store for during September.

Another year for Mets starter Noah Syndergaard, and another year of a declining strikeout rate, with Thor’s 23.8% K-rate far from his peak of 29.3% in 2016. But while the avalanche of strikeouts hasn’t come back, Syndergaard has quietly been very effective since the All-Star break, going 3-2 over 54 innings, with a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, along with a 9.11 K/9 that doesn’t exactly make him Brett Anderson.

Tier Five

When you play for the worst team in baseball, it’s easy to be overlooked. Enter, Matthew Boyd. The 28-year-old leftie has certainly had his problems this year, posting a 4.47 ERA over 159 innings for the hapless Detroit Tigers. But Boyd has unlocked his filthiest stuff this year, with a career-high 31.1% K-rate that’s backed by a 14.3% swinging-strike rate that’s the eighth-highest in all of baseball. Boyd, oh Boyd…That’s nasty.

As a St. Louis native, I can’t tell you how odd it is to be the only one of us that’s championing a Cub. Especially a boring old Cub like pitcher Kyle Hendricks. But Hendricks is a great example of a player being valuable in fantasy by being above-average across the board, as opposed to having one or two standout skills. Would anyone like to guess where Hendricks ranks on Yahoo’s Player Rater? I can’t read your mind, but I have to assume that no one was guessing #79. And definitely, no would guess that Yahoo projects him as the #53 player by year’s end. The #53 player, not the #53 pitcher. Since the beginning of May, Hendricks has a 2.75 ERA over 118 innings, with 98 strikeouts and a 0.95 WHIP. Boring? Yes. But are those ratios extremely valuable in an innings-eater like Hendricks? Also, yes.

Tier Six

Want to know a secret? I wanted to put Dinelson Lamet a lot higher than #172 but I’m going to try and keep my expectations in check… just for this year. Before being taken down by the nefarious Tommy John, Lamet was a popular breakout pick entering the 2018 season, carrying elite velocity and strikeout ability, with the 28.7% K-rate to prove it. And now that he’s fully recovered in 2019, Lamet has been even better than he was in 2017, posting a 30.1% K-rate and 3.83 xFIP through his first nine starts back. I’ll keep the hype in check for the remainder of 2019 but all bets are off in 2020.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

I suppose we should talk about Chris Bassitt, considering that I'm clearly the only one who is a believer in the 30-year-old right-hander. Like a worse version of Kyle Hendricks earlier, Bassitt doesn't strike fear into any one category with his numbers but is rather a pitcher whose fantasy whole is greater than the sum of his mediocre parts. Bassitt is now 9-5 on the year, with a 3.59 ERA and 117 strikeouts in his 125 innings pitched, good for #134 on the current Yahoo Player Rater. And for the near future, Bassitt has a few plus-matchups on the likely horizon, facing Kansas City(twice) and Detroit in his next five starts.

Tier Eight and lower

Hey! Who let Anthony DeSclafani on here? Oh wait, looks like I did, seeing I'm the only one of we three who ranked him in the top-300. But I certainly don't like him all the time, because the key to getting value out of Disco Tony is knowing when to use him, as he is a man of extremes. In 25 starts this year, DeSclafani has allowed one run or less 12 times (including his last two starts)...And four runs or more in six of those 25 starts. So if you're confident in choosing your spots, DeSclafani could be a boon down the stretch, especially considering his upcoming schedule, as the right-hander goes to Miami on August 28, followed by three starts against Philadelphia and Arizona(twice).

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