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The Plague of Failing Elbows
Since the beginning of spring training, we have seen starting pitchers Yu Darvish, Marcus Stroman, Cliff Lee, and Zack Wheeler all go down with with injuries. This, along with the outbreak of Tommy John surgeries in baseball the past few seasons, has left fantasy owners searching for "safe" starting pitching. How do we weed out the risks to ensure a healthy rotation?
The simple answer to this question is to not draft pitchers with injury concerns. Stroman was not in the same boat as the others on this list, so if you drafted him you were just unlucky. However, Lee and Darvish both missed time due to injury concerns last season. Wheeler was shut down at the end of 2013 and suffered from elbow discomfort throughout 2014.
Watch out for pitchers who frequently throw over 200 innings in a season. In 2011, his last season in Japan before joining the Rangers, Darvish threw 232 innings, his fourth out of five seasons eclipsing over 200 innings. For Lee, he threw over 210 innings every year from 2008-2013, giving him the title of a workhorse but also overusing his arm to the point of injury. Bronson Arroyo is another example. After averaging over 210 innings since 2005, he's still recovering from 2014 TJS.
Starting Pitcher Injury Red Flags For 2015
Looking at current draft boards, the biggest red flags I see are Masahiro Tanaka and Jordan Zimmermann. Tanaka had a well documented battle with a partially torn UCL in 2014, opting to rest for six weeks as opposed to having surgery. In 2011 and 2013, Tanaka threw 226.1 and 212 innings, respectively. Seeing that Tanaka had over 1300 innings on his arm before joining the Yankees, and at only 26 led me to steer clear of him and his potential injury risks.
It might be a shock to see Zimmermann included in this analysis. He has appeared in back-to-back All-Star games, and posted a great 14-5 record with a 2.66 ERA in 2014. However, back before he was a household name in 2009, he underwent Tommy John surgery after tearing his UCL. Now in 2013, he hit 213.1 innings and 199.2 this past year. While I have no hard evidence saying to avoid Zimmerman, I am skeptical of him. He is currently being drafted 54th overall in Yahoo leagues.
Top pitchers are exposed to hefty workloads, and perhaps dialing back their usage could be the solution. Looking at the Nationals, utilizing Tanner Roark as a sixth starter could be beneficial to Zimmerman, TJ surgery alum Stephen Strasburg, and the rest of Washington's staff.
While writing this, I joked with a colleague that if I could successfully figure out a way to determine which pitchers will suffer arm injuries before it happens, I would become a millionaire. This has yet to be the case, and I am simply stating my opinion on what has become an epidemic in today's game of baseball. All I know is there is a problem in today's game, and there seems to be no way of fixing it.
