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RotoBaller's friends and family from around the industry did a fantasy baseball mock draft ahead of the 2021 MLB season. Pierre Camus conducts a panel interview with the participants to get their analysis on how they attacked the board and what strategies they have in store for this year.
The 2021 RotoBaller Friends & Family Mock Draft is the continuation of an annual tradition where we gather some of the biggest names from the fantasy baseball world and put together a mock draft just as spring training has commenced. Thanks to RT Sports for once again hosting and providing a custom draft site where readers could follow along live at RTSports.com/RotoBaller!
This year's participants are a who's who of expert analysts, representing sites including:
- The Athletic - Nando Di Fino
- CBS Sports - Chris Towers
- Yahoo - Scott Pianowski
- RotoWire - Clay Link
- RotoGrinders - Derek Carty
- Fantasy Alarm - Howard Bender
- Fantasy Guru - Vlad Sedler
- Baseball HQ - Ray Murphy
- Fantrax - Eric Cross
- Fangraphs - Ariel Cohen
- and, of course, RotoBaller - Nick Mariano, Ariel Cohen, Pierre Camus
With this draft in the books, it's time to reflect on how each analyst constructed his roster. The 30-second clock in this mock left no time to question strategy or hesitate, so our drafters had to be on their toes! The format was 5x5 mixed roto league, snake draft, 28 rounds, and the draft order randomized an hour before the mock. Here are the full results, along with some reflections.
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Mock Draft Results
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Derek Carty - RotoGrinders
With the first pick, Carty bucked the trend of going with a bat and secured Jacob deGrom. The Mets' ace is typically taken around pick six or seven after the first five hitters are off the board but he clearly didn't want to wait for the 2/3 turn to land a starting pitcher. He wouldn't take another starter until round seven with Stephen Strasburg and generally waited for value picks at the position thereafter.
His offensive production will mostly come north of the border, as Bo Bichette and George Springer were the next two picks and Marcus Semien arriving in round eight. Stacking potent offenses can be a sound strategy and this is projected to be the 1-2-3 combo at the top of the Blue Jays' lineup.
Carty was also the first to grab a closer with Josh Hader in round five, although he seemed to largely ignore saves the rest of the way. It's unclear whether Drew Pomeranz is the primary closer in San Diego and no other pitcher on his staff is even in the mix for ninth-inning duties.
He took on a lot of late-round risk with oft-injured arms like Chris Sale, A.J. Puk, and Noah Syndergaard. If healthy and effective, any of these players could pay huge dividends but they could also turn out to be burned picks.
Summary: Carty struck first at starter and closer, securing the surest thing among the few aces out there in deGrom with the top pick. He also was the second to take a catcher in Salvador Perez, revealing a strategy to prioritize positions with greater value cliffs. By opting not to take Ronald Acuna Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr., he may not be among the leaders in steals but should have enough sprinkled among Bichette, Semien, and Jean Segura to keep out of the cellar in that category and his pitching prowess should make up for that deficiency.
Ariel Cohen - Fangraphs / RotoBaller
It's unclear whether Cohen would have taken his hometown pick of the Mets were he available but the point became moot. Instead, he also passed on the juniors in favor of Mookie Betts. According to his own ATC projections, Betts is projected to swipe 23 bags whereas Acuna is at 29 and Tatis at 27. Betts is also projected to finish with a higher average than those two players and to lead the league with 121 runs scored.
Cohen explained his thought process in a recent article on projection volatility: "Upon looking at the ATC volatility metrics – Betts’s underlying projections are tighter than those of Tatis (InterSD of 2.87 vs. 3.48)... For first-round players, I tend to favor the tightness over the upside. For me, the choice for the number one overall player should be Mookie Betts. Betts also qualifies at the outfield position, a shallower position in 2021 than Tatis’ shortstop spot. Additionally, Mookie Betts has the greater runs and batting average projection by a wide margin - which are harder to find later on in drafts."
The story of this draft has a happy ending, as Cohen later nabbed a trio of Metropolitans with Pete Alonso in round four, Edwin Diaz in round eight, and Jeff McNeil in round nine. After Diaz, Cohen focused on veteran discounts for closers like Joakim Soria, Daniel Bard, and Anthony Bass, whom he recently interviewed on Beat the Shift podcast.
For those wondering, his first pick at shortstop wound up being Dansby Swanson.
Summary: Cohen stuck true to his tried-and-true strategy of acquiring positive value in every round based on projections. This risk-averse approach is smart in any format but even more crucial in an expert league such as this.
Scott Pianowski - Yahoo Sports
Fernando Tatis Jr. was waiting at pick three, so Pianowski pounced. He followed up with Lucas Giolito as his ace, making him the eighth SP off the board. Pianowski then capitalized on recent fallers such as Alex Bregman, who fell outside the top 50 in this mock. He also took Cavan Biggio 94th overall, well below his current ADP consensus of 60. The same can be said for Anthony Rizzo in round 11.
Pianowski didn't consider saves until round 17 with Richard Rodriguez and then went mining for value closers in committees toward the end of the draft with pitchers like Mark Melancon, Pete Fairbanks, and Jake Diekman.
There wasn't an abundance of youth on this roster past Tatis, Biggio, and Lewis. Even his late-round picks consisted of veterans like Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Seager, and 38-year-old J.A. Happ as his Mr. Irrelevant.
Summary: The best way to describe Pianowski's roster is "balanced." He filled out his entire infield (not including catcher) by the fifth round but didn't lean heavily toward hitting or pitching through any stretch. He did seem to intentionally wait on the outfield position, assuming Whit Merrifield slots in at 2B in his starting lineup. Kyle Lewis became his next OF-eligible player in round 13 followed by Robbie Grossman in round 20. Value-based drafting at its finest.
Nick Mariano - RotoBaller
Big Pick Nick swung for the fences in this draft, shooting for upside with several picks. Starting out with Ronald Acuna Jr. out of the four-hole provides a nice base with which to start, of course. Aaron Nola was his second pick but he would then forego starting pitching until round 11 with Charlie Morton as his SP2. The rest of his staff runs about a 73.6% risk of having an IL designation at some point in the season, but talent is not an issue with guys like Corey Kluber, Shohei Ohtani, and Nathan Eovaldi.
Speaking of swinging for the fences and IL stints, Giancarlo Stanton found his way onto Mariano's roster, as did Randy Arozarena. We know what both are capable of, it's just hard to assume either will do it over the course of a full season. He later added some potential late-round category winners with Myles Straw and Elvis Andrus for steals, Rowdy Tellez for homers, and Aaron Hicks for runs.
Summary: This is the near-antithesis of Ariel's draft, with a risk-reward draft style. Nick could wind up crushing this league or getting crushed by injuries with little room for anything in between.
Nando Di Fino - The Athletic
With the fifth pick, Di Fino stuck with Juan Soto and paired him with former teammate Bryce Harper in round two. After selecting Jack Flaherty, he doubled up on Yankee sluggers with Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres and again later with Gary Sanchez and Clint Frazier. Picks like Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler, Ryan McMahon, and Jared Walsh confirm that the goal here was to dominate HR and RBI.
On the pitching front, Di Fino went young with his first few starters such as Jack Flaherty, Julio Urias, Chris Paddack, and Triston McKenzie and then added veteran depth later with Madison Bumgarner and Rich Hill. He opted to roll the dice on Jo Adell and Christian Pache with picks in round 25 and 26 respectively.
Summary: This roster is power-heavy on offense but lacking in speed as a result. It's hard to truly say whether this was a conscious decision or simply the way things shook out. There is a solid floor all around but too many swings and misses by sluggers who don't rebound from a disappointing 2020 (Sanchez, Soler) could spell trouble.
Clay Link - RotoWire
Well, someone had to take Mike Trout... While he isn't the undisputed top player in fantasy any longer, it still must feel good to land him at pick six. Link then took a pair of Dodger pitchers not named Bauer to lead his staff. Thereafter, Link took advantage of a falling ADP with Nolan Arenado in round five to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the corners.
He arguably reached for Austin Meadows with pick 67, as his current ADP sits at 92. Meadows was taken as high as round three last year in many leagues but suffered a down year slashing .205/.296/.371 with four HR, 13 RBI, and two SB in 132 at-bats in 2020. He battled through an oblique injury and COVID diagnosis, so if back to full health he could actually wind up being a screaming value.
Link is a believer in 2020 breakouts by Zach Plesac, Dylan Bundy, and arguably Christian Javier. Aaron Civale took a small step backward but revamped his delivery this offseason and is working on a split-change to add to his six-pitch mix. He found speed at a discount with players like Garrett Hampson, Manuel Margot, and Nick Senzel in the last half of the draft.
Summary: "Build up the middle" is a common refrain among MLB front offices but Link took the opposite approach to his fantasy roster here. He was the last manager to take a shortstop, waiting for Andres Gimenez in round 10. He was second-to-last to select a second baseman with Kolten Wong in round 16. This speaks to the depth at SS on one hand and lack of distinction among mid-tier players at 2B. I personally advocate waiting on second base this year so while I didn't love every player he selected, it was a sound approach to roster construction.
Chris Towers - CBS Sports
We don't typically see a six-pick gap between pitchers in round one but that's what happened when Gerrit Cole was taken seventh after deGrom was the first overall pick. Starting with Cole and backing him up with Max Scherzer in round three provides a nice warm security blanket around your pitching categories but the pick to discuss here is Adalberto Mondesi at 18th overall.
Mondesi has an industry consensus ADP of 29 and that includes 31 on CBS. Towers obviously believes that the upside is well worth the risk here, especially having sandwiched this pick with pitchers. I won't argue on the merits of taking Mondesi here rather than Trea Turner in the first and following him with Aaron Nola or Walker Buehler instead of the Cole/Mondesi. I'll just say, it is a calculated risk that could pay off huge.
There were a few more high/ceiling, low/floor types throughout his draft, such as Keston Hiura, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Andrew Vaughn, and Mitch Keller. If the strategy was to punt AVG then it worked. All these hitters can provide power and speed should be dominated by Mondesi and Buxton alone.
One of the savviest picks in the entire draft came in the penultimate round when Towers snagged Framber Valdez. At the time of this draft, many speculated he would miss most, if not all, of the 2021 season with finger surgery. It was recently revealed that no surgery was needed and his finger is healing quicker than expected. Towers may have stolen one of the top breakout candidates of draft season at no cost.
Summary: If Mariano's team was swinging for the fences, this one was kicking up its leg and cracking for maximum torque before the wind-up was halfway through. Boom-bust types are totally fine if they are good values but loading up on several in one draft is rarely successful.
Pierre Camus - RotoBaller
With Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole off the board, Trea Turner was the next player in my rankings. Although I don't have Shane Bieber far off those aces and am not overly concerned about his spring showing, the allure of an elite base thief is too much to ignore. I nearly went with a starter in round two but thought that I could grab either Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo, or Max Scherzer on the way back. Once they were gone, I was OK waiting again while filling the shallow first base position with last year's MVP, Jose Abreu. I have Zac Gallen near the bottom of tier two, putting up similar numbers to pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, so it turned out fine.
It's harder to find great values in a league full of the top experts around but I was confident because in last year's iteration of this draft, I identified late-round picks like Mike Yastrzemski in round 23, Trent Grisham in round 24, and Zach Plesac in round 28. I understand the playing time concerns about Ha-Seong Kim but I don't feel the Padres signed him to a four-year, $28 million deal to sit on the bench. He may move around the diamond or split time with Jake Cronenworth but he should collect enough at-bats to be a solid MI. There aren't too many players with 20/20 upside available after round 20. I'm also surprised Mark Canha wasn't taken earlier, especially since he is a favorite of the RotoBaller MLB staff. Luis Arraez brings positional versatility along with a high BA floor and should also play enough to be a strong value at MI or OF.
Summary: I may not wait until round four to get my first starting pitcher in many other drafts but draft slot largely determines strategy. The offense on this squad could be at the top of the standings across the board but it may have to be based on how the rotation shaped up.
Howard Bender - Fantasy Alarm
With the ninth pick, Bender went with tried-and-true Jose Ramirez. After landing Yu Darvish in round two, he focused on more multi-category hitters with Xander Bogaerts, Eloy Jimenez, and Jose Altuve. His staff is full of experience with Kenta Maeda, Zack Wheeler, Marco Gonzales, and Kirby Yates marking his next four pitching selections.
Things got interesting in the middle rounds when he took a trio of outfielders that are oozing with breakout potential. Ramon Laureano, Victor Robles, and Alex Kiriloff are players that could deliver off-the-charts ROI. Coming off down 2020 seasons, Laureano and Robles are rightfully met with skepticism by drafters but both are enjoying strong springs and should hit near the top of the lineup. Kiriloff has a trickier path to regular playing time but as a 19th-round pick, the risk is negligible.
Summary: Bender skillfully balanced experience with youth and didn't overpay at any juncture in this draft. One weakness could be in the saves category, as he's depending on Kirby Yates and Greg Holland to hold onto closer jobs and stay healthy. Then again, there aren't many teams that can feel safe about their closers coming out of a draft.
Eric Cross - Fantrax
Cross started his draft with the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Shane Bieber. Like every other drafter in this mock, he opted against the pocket aces strategy and took Francisco Lindor next. He then added a pair of Milwaukee arms in Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in rounds three and five respectively. He became the first to fill out a five-man rotation after taking Ian Anderson and Sixto Sanchez in rounds 10-11.
It should be no surprise that Cross, a dynasty expert and ranker, grabbed several young players throughout this mock. His squad may be the "toolsiest" of them all. This isn't isolated to speed or power either, but includes guys with elite hit tools like Yordan Alvarez and Nick Madrigal. On the pitching side, any one of Nate Pearson, Dylan Cease, or Spencer Howard could wind up being a staple in his rotation. Of course, they could all wind up as waiver fodder too.
He was the final manager to take a catcher and landed a great value with James McCann in round 24.
Summary: Cross seemed to follow the mindset of skills first over roles when it came to pitching. Several of his starters come with questions about innings restrictions and the closers are shaky at best. There is a solid offensive base to work with, however, and the talent on this roster is undeniable.
Vlad Sedler - Fantasy Guru
The RotoGut himself, Vlad was likely thrilled to start with a duo of Christian Yelich and Freddie Freeman out of the 11 spot. He showed a lot of faith in Tyler Glasnow by picking him 35th compared to his current ADP of 53. Seven of his first 13 picks belong to the pitching staff, including the third closer off the board, Liam Hendriks.
Many of our managers were crushed to see him select C.J. Cron in round 14 (158 overall), well ahead of his 261 ADP. Cron isn't guaranteed to win the first base job, or even earn a roster spot in Colorado as of yet, but we all have visions of him crushing 40 homers in Coors.
Sedler was also the one bold enough to take Wander Franco in hopes that he is called up at some point this season. Franco had a solid spring, hitting .273 with a massive home run that has dynasty managers salivating about his potential. He has already been reassigned to Minor League camp, days after this draft wrapped up, so the question becomes whether he is worth stashing in a 12-team league.
Summary: Sedler didn't necessarily attack one stat or position, letting the draft come to him. It was clear who some of his favorite picks were by the middle and later rounds, but it's hard to call anything a reach once you get outside the top 150.
Ray Murphy - Baseball HQ
Picking last is never ideal but it offers some benefits. Murphy turned it to his advantage by taking a high-end five-cat contributor in Trevor Story and bonafide ace in Trevor Bauer. While I personally won't have either player on my squad in 2021, these were solid values. After drafting Ozzie Albies in round four, Murphy made an interesting decision by drafting another 2B-eligible player in Brandon Lowe two rounds later. While he can slot of OF too, his most valuable position would be at second so this must have been designed to fill the MI spot.
Meanwhile, taking UTIL-only J.D. Martinez meant waiting until rounds 10 & 11 to fill his corner infield spots while he addressed pitching. Dominic Smith and Ke'Bryan Hayes are fine choices to be sure, so it appeared to be a predetermined strategy of waiting at first and third base since he passed on opportunities to draft sluggers like Eugenio Suarez, Matt Olson, and Matt Chapman. Murphy took Hayes and Lowe in this year's LABR draft, so they seem to be draft targets when available.
Murphy likely cornered the market on speed without having Turner or Mondesi on his roster by acquiring several speedsters that can also produce in other ways. Between Trevor Story, Ozzie Albies, Kyle Tucker, and Tommy Pham, he accumulated 83 SB based on ATC projections. That allowed him to focus on power with his other offensive picks.
Summary: With the 12th pick, it's unlikely to see many two-SP starts and Murphy has stated that he prefers not to draft that way regardless. Foregoing a starter altogether would put one at a disadvantage, so he did the smart thing by grabbing the best available ace in Bauer. The rest of the rotation lacks some of the upside of other teams in this mock but the counting stats should be there by season's end and the offense is strong enough to remain competitive.
