X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Early ADP Thoughts - Outfielders

Kyle Bishops offers his take on early average draft position (ADP) data for outfielders in the 2020 fantasy baseball season.

♫It's the most wonderful tiiiiiiiime, of the year!♫ Well, sort of. In much of the country, February brings terrible weather and generally feels interminable, despite being the shortest month on the calendar. This being a leap year, we get an extra day of it. Fun! But for fantasy baseball owners, fun is exactly what you get this month (and next).

With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror and spring training imminent, 2020 draft preparations begin in earnest. We'll spend far too much time over the next six weeks poring over reams of data and the scads of articles that accompany it, because the run-up to meaningful games being played is arguably the most enjoyable part of the proceedings. After all, it's called fantasy baseball, and reality has a way of spoiling things. Hell, even spring training will harsh the winter's buzz a bit for some players.

Before we have anything but history and our imaginations to account for, though, here are some thoughts on early draft results. Today, we're focusing on the outfield. (ADP data courtesy of NFBC)

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Overpriced

Whit Merrifield, KC (OF15, 53 ADP)

Merrifield gets a boost from the fact that he retains eligibility at second base, which is looking quite thin for fantasy purposes in 2020. But even with that in mind, this price feels a round or so early. His stolen base totals plummeted last season (from 45 steals in 55 attempts in 2018 to 20 in 30), and at age 31 we can't simply pencil him in for a return to form there. He'll hit for average and score runs, but the 15ish home runs won't move the needle much and neither will the 60 - 70 RBI. So Merrifield probably has to steal 30 bags to return value.

Luis Robert, CHW (OF25, 91 ADP)

Robert was undeniably spectacular in the minor leagues last season, and he's guaranteed to break camp as a starter after signing a long-term deal and removing any incentive for the Pale Hose to engage in service time high jinks. Even across three levels, a 30/30 season at age 22 is nothing to sneeze at. But prospects with subpar plate discipline are a dicey proposition, even when they have tools as loud as Robert's. How quickly we forget the likes of Lewis Brinson! Projections like him to go 20/20 as a rookie with a respectable average and run production, so this ADP isn't unreasonable. But there's a significant downside risk that doesn't feel quite as baked in as it ought to be, and it's easy to see Robert being streaky and thus frustrating to own.

Danny Santana, TEX (OF34, 127 ADP)

I wrote about Santana and why it's prudent to be skeptical of his 2019 performance last month. To summarize: His plate discipline remained exceptionally poor, his power surge was at least partially a mirage, and the Rangers' roster is crowded enough that an extended slump could easily cost him playing time.

 

The Undervalued

Justin Upton, LAA (OF59, 231 ADP)

This price is shocking. Upton certainly struggled last season in an injury-plagued campaign, but the market has grossly overreacted to one bad year. Entering 2019, the 32-year-old had been one of the most reliable assets in fantasy baseball over the prior decade. Not only had he averaged a .270-89-27-84-14 in that time, but he had also averaged 148 games and 624 plate appearances per season. The Angels also added Anthony Rendon this winter, which makes Upton's place in the heart of the order even more appealing than before. But he's being selected after guys like Joc Pederson, Nick Senzel, and Alex Verdugo. It's time to put some respect on Upton's name.

Corey Dickerson, MIA (OF78, 318 ADP)

Dickerson signed with the Marlins as a free agent this winter and is expected to hit cleanup for them. The 30-year-old only logged 279 plate appearances in 2019, but still managed to hit 12 homers and drive in 59 while slashing .304/.341/.565. It was the second straight year and fourth time in seven seasons that he hit .300 or better. He's at .286 for his career and has also averaged 24 HR/600 PA. There's potential for him to be a plus in four categories, which is a bargain at the end of drafts.

Domingo Santana, CLE (OF86, 351 ADP)

It's not yet official as of this writing, but by the time you read this Santana will likely be under contract with Cleveland. He should really be a DH given his defensive shortcomings, but Franmil Reyes is bad at fielding too, so Santana will likely see time out there. That's Cleveland's problem. What we as fantasy owners care about is whether he'll hit enough to justify his modest acquisition cost, and that seems likely. Santana produced a 30/15 season in 2017 and was well on his way toward a repeat performance in 2019 before injury struck. His disappointing 2018 can't be entirely swept aside, of course, but few outfielders being picked in this range have the potential to contribute in all of the counting stats without capsizing your batting average.

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF