X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Digging Into K% Leaders - Ketel Marte

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman (2B) Ketel Marte was among the leaders in K% in the 2020 MLB season but still struggled offensively, especially for fantasy baseball. Matt Goodwin digs into his Statcast profile to figure out why.

There are so many metrics that exist to evaluate player performance, it can sometimes be tough to know which way to go with it. There are the very basic stats we all grew up with: batting average, runs batted in, home runs, and maybe on-base percentage. We also know that they are not the most useful in player analyses even if they are still the categories upon which your league determines wins and losses. 

If we go a little deeper, we can look at things like K% and BB% to get a better idea of how the player arrives at a particular batting average or RBI total. However, what we really want to know is how good the player is at being a hitter, not necessarily how well the results pan out. Yes, fantasy is a results-driven endeavor, but if you want to know how those results are achieved and why it matters, you have to dig into the metrics that measure the underlying discrete skills.

This series will start with the leaderboards for a given mid-level stat (K%, BB%, ISO, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA), identify a player or two of intrigue, and take a deeper dive into the underlying skills driving that particular stat using only publicly available data from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Strikeout Percentage

You don’t need me (or anyone else) to tell you that, on their own, strikeouts are not a productive outcome nor a desirable skill in a hitter. We do not seek players who strike out at high rates. However, we might be able to excuse a high strikeout rate under certain circumstances, especially if the approach causing them is the same approach leading to outcomes we do desire. 

In roto or categories leagues, strikeouts themselves do not hurt you, but the negative impact on things like batting average, OBP or OPS might. In points leagues, not only do you suffer the opportunity cost of a lost at-bat but often-times you are punished as well. It is always important to note your league settings for context before coming to a misleading conclusion. Let’s start with a quick look at Fangraphs leaderboards for the league’s top 20 and bottom 20 in K%:

We can see some of the things we already know but in table form: Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo are strikeout machines, Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu have excellent discipline and are much tougher to K. 

You may also feel the impulse to use these leaderboards to look for players to target for your drafts or to try and understand an outlier performance in a small sample size (like the entire 2020 season). You might want to try and gauge whether players might bounce back or have developed a new skill (or problem). Two good examples include fantasy studs from the previous season, Ketel Marte and Christian Yelich

It may be surprising to discover that Marte had a fantastic K% despite also having a down year or that Yelich, was suddenly in the 11th percentile. Weird, right? Rather than jump to a conclusion, it’s better to dig in and that means moving from basic things like K% to more meaningful numbers that can provide a better narrative. Let's start with Marte.

 

Digging In On Ketel Marte

With a 99th percentile strikeout rate of 10.8%, you might expect to be talking about how Marte had a successful 2020. However, we all know that Marte underwhelmed, not meeting his fantasy expectations and leaving a lot of managers who rostered him frustrated. When you realize that this was the lowest K% of his career, having dropped nearly 3% from 2019 in which his wRC+ was 150, it is only more puzzling. He should have been even better in 2020, right? But he was not (for those with the same natural curiosity as me, his wRC+ dropped to 95 in 2020 which means he went from being 50% better than the average player to 5% worse in one year). So what the heck happened? 

For starters, his BB%, a handy companion to K%, plummeted, going from a scant 8.4% in 2019 to an abysmal 3.6% in 2020; this was the 3rd percentile. Yikes. There aren’t many hitters capable of success at the Major League level while walking less than 4% of the time regardless of the underlying skill sets. While this is likely part of the picture, it is still an output stat and it’s important to understand the difference between outcome-driven metrics and those that are more about input, the latter of which give us a much better sense of how “good” the player is at discrete skills that impact the outputs. 

Let’s start with his HardHit% which was 40.5 in 2020 and 40 in 2019. That is a .5% increase which, while for all intents and purposes is the same as 2019, does nothing to help us understand the down year. In fact, if you take two of the three pieces of evidence that we have thus far, a 10.8% K% combined with a 40.5 HardHit%, you would still expect Marte to have had a killer year. This was a good rock to look under, but in this case, it doesn’t help much.

Let’s move on to exit velocity; not the average EV, however, but maxEV. Neither is perfect and here is why: the average EV is, like all averages, susceptible to outliers like an over-abundance of pop-ups, laser-show home runs, soft line drives, or worm-burners that are smoked directly into the ground. This is not ideal because it incorporates too many variables. MaxEV, on the other hand, is a single batted-ball event (BBE) so it isn’t affected by outliers, but it is also just a single data point which doesn’t tell us how repeatable it was throughout a season because it could be an outlier on its own; if a guy squared off on one and hit it significantly harder than all of the rest, his maxEV may look more enticing than his performance really was. The maxEV is still the better indicator but, unfortunately, in this case, the .4 mph dropoff (116.3 mph in 2019 to 115.9 mph in 2020) neither explains nor contributed to the issue. 

Even if we split the difference with a little experiment and use EV/Barrel (average exit velocity of barrels), there was only a 2.4 mph decrease year-over-year which is still not significant enough to explain the downgraded performance. We press on.

The next two areas to examine are Barrel% and SweetSpot%. This really drills down into the quality of the hard-hit BBEs. Again, hard-hit balls driven directly into the ground are not useful and these will help us narrow down the effectiveness of his hard contact. Here are the past three seasons of data:

As you can see, there was a spike in the SweetSpot% in 2019. This likely doesn’t explain it all, but we are finally starting to see something that is likely a piece of the puzzle, especially when combined with the similar, but more significant, pattern in his Barrel%. 2019 seems to be a pretty significant outlier and here’s the thing about that: his career average is only 4.5% even when it is buoyed by 2019. His career average without it would be just 2.4. Something went really right in 2019 and this begs the question: was that the outlier and we should have seriously tempered expectations for Marte in 2021 or did he break out in 2019 and 2020 was a flukey, small sample size, chaotic and weird year that just so happened to come after that breakout and he’s more likely to look like 2019 than 2020 this coming year?

There is an answer, but it does depend on a couple of things. The first has to do with why he may have had a harder time squaring up the ball last year and it relates to count management and his low strikeout percentage. In this case, his 10.8 K% might be hurting him. Allow me to explain. Marte had a Whiff% in the 98th percentile due to a swinging-strike rate of just 5.6%. His overall swing percentage went down in 2020 as well, from 47.5% to 45%. And while it is not significantly different from previous seasons, his F-Strike%. This means that 6 out of 10 at-bats started 0-1. His low SwStr% also suggests that a majority of his strikes are called and he might be getting too cute with the strike zone and attacking the ball. 

We haven’t talked a lot about wOBA here and now is a great time because it is going to tie together how being down in the count impacts production. It is a weighted on-base percentage metric that includes a valuation of the quality of the manner in which a hitter gets on base. For example, a walk is weighted differently than a double, triple, or home run such that the extra-base hits have more value. Admittedly, this is more of an output metric than input, but it does have value here. Furthermore, you may notice a familiar pattern over the last three seasons with Marte’s (for reference I have included his expected wOBA and expected wOBA on contact which focuses only on balls in play):

Once again we see that 2019 looks like the outlier just as it did with SweetSpot% and Barrel% which is good to have to support the validity of the wOBA numbers. And now it is time to add some data from a Fangraphs article from January 8, 2020, written by Ben Clemens entitled, The Count Is King (Even After Accounting for Batter Skill) that shows the impact of the count on the eventual outcome of an-bat. It is based on the wOBA that is produced after certain counts are established.

After the count goes 0-1, which we know happens to Marte on 60% of his at-bats, the league-side average wOBA produced is just .270. Conversely, the alternative, after having the count go 1-0, the wOBA is .363. This is very important. After the count goes 0-2 or 1-1, the wOBA produced is just .203 and .303 respectively. In 2019, Marte had a wOBA of .411 and the data shows that this is only achievable, on average, with counts of 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1. 

It is now time to put the pieces together. Given that Marte’s 2020 wOBA was only .311 (and was expected to be even lower at .295), we can conclude that he needs to swing at the first pitch more often (because we know that most strikes against him are looking, not swinging). There are three reasons:

  1. He is being thrown strikes on the first pitch and if he watches them go by and starts at 0-1, he limits his wOBA potential by almost 100 points.
  2. To get to his wOBA from 2019, the numbers say he needs more counts of 2-0 and 3-0 and you can’t get there with a strike on the first pitch.
  3. Pitchers have no real reason to throw more balls on the first pitch until he starts swinging more and, once they have the first strike, get to feed the pitches they want rather than the pitches he can drive.

When you get down in the count, the pitcher is in the driver’s seat and the at-bat has to become somewhat defensive; even more so with two strikes. This limits the ability to drive the ball as consistently, which explains the inconsistencies with SweetSpot% and Barrel% too. This started with a natural curiosity about a guy with a stellar K% who had a bad year and now we have arrived at the conclusion that the answer may very well be that Marte needs to be willing to slightly increase his K% in order to be more effective at the plate in 2021.

Will Ketel Marte’s be more like 2020 or 2019 next year? As 2019 might very well turn out to be his career year, I would not expect him to return fully to that form. However, I think he can get more than halfway back to it if he does more damage on the first pitch and pushes the count advantage to his favor. If not, I would have severely tempered expectations.

Part 2 will continue with Christian Yelich, digging into his 2020 season starting with K%.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Kerry Carpenter

Leaves Game with Apparent Hamstring Injury
Brooklyn Nets

Day'Ron Sharpe Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Milwaukee Bucks

Bobby Portis Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Los Angeles Clippers

James Harden, Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Oneil Cruz

Smacks Two Homers
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers, Dealing With Back Issue
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Minnesota Timberwolves

Julius Randle Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers

Dorian Finney-Smith Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Porter Jr. Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Toronto Raptors

Garrett Temple Returning to Toronto
Los Angeles Clippers

Nicolas Batum Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF