10 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Elliott Baas's 2025 Picks

March 19, 2025

Elliott Baas's 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Jackson Chourio, Mike Trout, Oneil Cruz, and more.

Howdy RotoBallers! It's draft season, and fortune favors the bold, so let's get spicy with 10 bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season. These predictions are long shots that may not come to fruition, but there are enough breadcrumbs in the numbers to suggest these players have another level in them for 2025.

I decided to keep it positive with 10 bold breakouts/overperformances for 2025. Sure, we know busts will happen, but for this article, we'll keep our pie-in-the-sky hopes alive for 2025.

For more spicy takes, check out our other entries into 10 Bold Predictions this season.

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Jackson Chourio Finishes As A Top-7 Player In Roto

The phenom prospect struggled upon first being promoted to the majors, hitting just .243 in the first half with a .678 OPS. But the youngster came alive in the second half, hitting .310 with a .914 OPS and .242 ISO. He also reduced his strikeout rate by five percentage points in the second half to a very manageable 18.7 percent. All while not being able to legally consume the beverage for which his team is named. He is trending upward and has plenty of room to grow in 2025.

One thing that has me excited about Chourio is how quickly he’s been able to adjust and improve at the major league level. He struck out 32.1 percent of the time in March/April last season but didn’t have a strikeout rate higher than 24.5 percent in other months and was routinely below 20 percent. Have a look at how Chourio’s chase rate improved over the season in 2024.

He got better against fastballs and off-speed pitches midseason last year. Let’s have a look at his xwOBA month-by-month as well.

Chourio had an odd September, but overall, we can see him perform better over time, and I think he’ll continue to get better in 2025. The odd September wasn’t bad either; he struck out an elevated 24.5 percent of the time, but he also walked 10 percent of the time and had a .232 ISO and 123 wRC+.

Chourio is projected to hit between .260 and .270 with 20-25 home runs and 25-30 stolen bases. I predict he beats all three numbers, batting between .280 and .300, hitting more than 25 home runs, and stealing more than 30 bases. He hit .303 with an .883 OPS and 142 wRC+ from June 1 on, and let’s see him do that for a full season.

Bo Bichette Has A Major Bounceback And Wins AL Batting Title

Bichette had one of the strangest 2024 seasons of anyone in the majors. He was a career .299 hitter with an .826 OPS and 126 wRC+ prior to the 2024 season, and he completely fell off a cliff. Bichette finished the season with a putrid .225/.277.322 triple slash and a 71 wRC+. He was worth only 0.3 WAR after averaging 4.5 WAR per season between 2021 and 2023. He’s only 27 years old, and there is plenty of room for a bounce-back in 2025.

Two things really plagued Bichette last season: injuries and bad luck. Let’s start with the injury, which limited Bichette to just 81 games in 2024. He suffered a strained calf in June and was never the same. After the calf strain, Bichette hit just .167 with an uncharacteristic 33.3 percent strikeout rate and a 54.3 percent groundball rate. We know Bichette is better than that; heck, Mario Mendoza is better than that.

It’s true that Bichette wasn’t playing all that well before the injury, but that’s where plain old bad luck comes into play. Prior to suffering the calf injury, Bichette hit .237 with a .629 OPS and a 79 wRC+. Putrid numbers by any means. But he still had an excellent 15.9 percent K rate and his usual 21.5 percent line drive rate during that stretch. A .271 BABIP lowered his numbers, especially since Bichette is usually a high BABIP hitter. Prior to last year, Bichette had a career .349 BABIP (MLB average is around .300). Variance will favor him once again, and he’ll recapture that past success.

Bichette especially underperformed on fastballs last season. Normally an annihilator of fastballs, Bichette hit just .232 against them last season. He did have a .284 xBA and a .419 xSLG compared to his actual .299 SLG, so I think there’s plenty of room for Bichette to bounce back this season. Batting champ? Why not? The dude already saw the negative end of the luck scale, so let the baseball gods shine their light upon him in 2025. Bichette will smack lasers and have at least a 28 percent line drive rate and a .370+ BABIP in 2025, making him your AL batting title winner.

We Get A Vintage Mike Trout Season

A future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, the latter half of Mike Trout’s career has been marred by injuries and disappointment. Mostly disappointment from fans and fantasy managers as Trout has struggled to stay on the diamond, playing over 100 games just once since 2020. Even when he did play last season, Trout underperformed with a .220 AVG, 79 points below his career mark. So why should we expect a bounce back for the Millville Meteor?

Trout missed most of last season with a torn meniscus, one that he re-tore on a minor league rehab assignment. The Angels are going to move him to right field to reduce his injury risk, and presumably play him more at DH this season, likely trading time with Jorge Soler. That should help keep him in the lineup, and even with a depressed batting average last season, Trout can produce.

Trout’s impressive power was still on display in his limited playing time last season. He smacked 10 home runs and had a .541 SLG in 126 PAs. His .321 ISO was third-highest in the majors (min. 100 PA) last season as well, just behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. His exit velocity was depressed a little, dropping about two mph to 89.2. Trout still had an insane 17.1 percent barrel rate and had a .591 xSLG, so I’m hopeful he can sustain these exceptional power numbers and, if healthy, recapture that past exit velocity.

We shouldn’t be too worried about Trout’s ugly .220 AVG, either. Sure, it’s a big step back, but he still had a .271 xBA, which is in line with his past three seasons. He also had an unfortunate .190 BABIP, a number we could expect to rise by nearly 100 points over a full season. Trout has a career .282 BABIP and is in the 90^th percentile of sprint speed, so it’s reasonable to expect this number to normalize in 2025.

Trout smashed 40 home runs in 119 games back in 2022, and I think we will get a similar season this year. Let’s see Trout play at least 120 games and smack 35 home runs with a .270-.280 AVG and 80+ RBI.

Extra Spicy Prediction: Trout has a renaissance, but the Angels go nowhere. Trout finally waives his no-trade clause and goes to a contender midseason.

Michael Toglia Goes 40/15

One of the lone bright spots for Colorado last season was the second-half emergence of Michael Toglia at first base. After hitting .197 in the first half with a .180 BABIP, Toglia turned things around, raising his average to .235 and nearly doubling his walk rate. That’s a positive step forward, but what’s really to like about Toglia is his prodigious power.

Standing 6-foot-5 and weighing 226 lbs, Toglia is a well-built crusher of baseballs. He pulverized the ball last season, averaging 92.1 mph average exit velocity, along with a monster 17.3 percent barrel rate. When it comes to power metrics, Toglia does just about everything right. Here’s a look at his Savant page.

Blood red is a good thing, although we can see his weakness in this graph too, which is a poor contact rate. Even with his second-half improvements Toglia still struck out 32.1 percent of the time in the second half. If he can reduce that strikeout rate even by a few points, Toglia could really take off as a player. The barrel rate and hard-hit rate correlate strongly with power production, and Toglia is basically elite. Every time he makes contact, the ball could leave the yard, especially in Coors Field.

Interestingly, Toglia had a much higher SLG and ISO on the road than at home last season. The reason seems to be a reduced fly-ball rate at home. He had a 47.4 percent fly-ball rate on the road but a 36.9 percent fly-ball rate at home last season. Hard to say if he's taking a different approach at home or not, but this could also be an odd quirk that irons itself out. This year, I say Toglia takes a step forward, takes advantage of Coors, and smacks 40 bombs. He was 10-of-11 on steals last season,  and this year he’ll chip in five more for good measure and become a nice power-speed threat.

Drake Baldwin steals Sean Murphy’s job and beats Roki Sasaki for NL ROY

The Braves got some bad news this spring when catcher Sean Murphy went down with a cracked rib. The rib will have Murphy sidelined for four to six weeks, paving the way for top catching prospect Drake Baldwin to begin the season as Atlanta’s starting catcher.

A highly touted prospect out of Missouri State, Baldwin was ranked as the 11^th-best prospect in baseball by Fangraphs in February. Baldwin is known for his strong bat and plate discipline. Baldwin’s minor league stats indicate that he is a strong contact hitter, and he’s able to make improvements as he advances through the levels.

Baldwin had some especially impressive Triple-A stats last season, hitting .298 with an .891 OPS and 12 home runs in 334 PA. Baldwin also had a 0.96 BB/K ratio at Triple-A last season, walking over 15 percent of the time. His walk rate has remained consistently high in the minor leagues; he’s never had an OBP below .370 in any minor league season.

Sean Murphy struggled mightily after missing the first two months of the season with a strained oblique. He could never find his groove and ultimately hit .193 with an elevated 25.4 percent strikeout rate. Murphy’s glove will likely salvage some playing time for him, but if he can’t hit and Baldwin can, then the job is Baldwin’s. The dude seriously had a .407 OBP at Triple-A last season, at catcher.

Let’s see Baldwin bring his contact skills and plate discipline to the majors and produce right away. He could hit over .280 or maybe even .300 if things break right for him. That’s great for a catcher and could make him NL ROY over the odds-on favorite, Roki Sasaki.

Oneil Cruz Continues To Improve At The Plate And Smacks 35 Homers

I am in awe of Oneil Cruz’s Statcast page. At 6-foot-7, 240 lbs, the dude is straight-up strong; it’s hard to believe he came up as a shortstop with that body type. Now in the outfield, Cruz has been clobbering baseballs this spring, with a .529 SLG and .353 ISO in seven spring games as of writing this. He went 20/20 last year, slugging 21 homers and stealing 22 bases, but there is so much more power potential lurking beneath the surface for Cruz.

What’s most impressive about Cruz has to be how hard he hits the ball. His average exit velocity last season was a scorching 95.5 mph, and his max EV was 121.5 mph. The only two players who had a higher average exit velocity than Cruz last season were Ohtani and Judge. That’s some impressive company to be in, and it doesn’t stop there for Cruz.

He ranked in the 100^th percentile for bat speed in MLB last season. That’s right! He owns nearly the best bat speed in the majors behind only Giancarlo Stanton, besting other sluggers like Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Yordan Alvarez, to name a few. Here's a look at his power percentiles.

Cruz doesn’t just hit the ball hard; he makes excellent quality contact across the board. He had a 15.7 percent barrel rate and a 32.1 percent sweet spot rate last season, along with a .462 xwOBAcon. The big problem for him has been making contact, period, but Cruz has made some small gains in that department over his young career.

Cruz has dealt with injuries throughout his baseball career, limiting his playing time and making him a bit of an enigma development-wise. What’s encouraging about Cruz is all the improvements he’s made between 2022 and 2024.

Cruz cut his strikeout rate by five percentage points, going from 35 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2024. He’s been striking out a lot this spring so I’m not sure we’ll see another gain in this category, but Cruz could experience improvements at the plate if he cuts the K rate below 30 percent. I also like that Cruz cut down his called strike rate from 21.7 percent in 2022 to 17.8 percent in 2024, suggesting that he’s getting better at pitch and zone recognition.

Mostly a fastball crusher, Cruz also performed much better against offspeed pitches in 2024. He hit .277 with a .468 SLG off offspeed stuff last season, compared to a .222 AVG in 2022 (though he had an impressive .556 SLG against). He saw less offspeed stuff in 2024, and if he can continue handling it well, it’ll force more fastballs his way. Cruz had a .312 xBA and .570 xSLG against fastballs last year, and he saw a five-point rise in being pitched fastballs in 2024.

This year, Cruz will stay healthy and put his tools together, smacking 35 home runs and stealing 25 or more bases. His strikeout rate will depress his batting average somewhat, but his sprint speed helps him maintain a high BABIP. He could hit around .250-.255 to go with the 35/25 year, which would catapult Cruz up the rankings for 2026.

The Cincinnati Reds Surprise Everyone, Win The NL Central, And Win A Playoff Series

You’ve heard of post-hype prospects and post-hype sleepers, but what about post-hype teams? The Reds were seen as an ascendant team heading into 2024 thanks to a bevy of young talent led by superstar shortstop Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has been electric, but not all of his teammates have kept up with him. They finished 77-85 last season, which was good for fourth place. So, why do I think they can make the playoffs?

The young talent didn’t go anywhere; they just didn’t produce enough. They will get more production from several key contributors all season and emerge as a scary young team. Consider second baseman Matt McLain. McLain was a 3 WAR player in his rookie year but missed all of last season with an injury. McLain’s skills looked legit during his exceptional 2023 rookie campaign, and he’s slated to hit in the prime second slot in the Reds' order.

Offseason acquisition Austin Hays is an under-the-radar bounce-back candidate as well. Hays doesn’t have a ton of fantasy appeal, but he did average 2 WAR per season between 2021 and 2023 before sputtering last season to a 98 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR in 255 PAs. With consistent playing time, he could find a groove again and be productive.

First baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand was atrocious last season, hitting .190 with a .513 OPS and a 0.11 BB/K ratio. Brutal. But he had 13 home runs and a .207 ISO in his rookie season, and we could realistically expect big improvements on his .247 BABIP and 7.1 percent HR/FB ratio last season, both strong indicators of bad luck. Encarnacion-Strand has displayed some prodigious power in the minor leagues, including 20 home runs and a .306 ISO at Triple-A in 2023, before being promoted to the majors. He’s also smacked three spring homers and cut his strikeout rate to 23.3 percent this spring as of writing this.

Let’s see Encarnacion-Strand tap into that power this season and slug 20-25 home runs, stealing Jeimer Candelario’s first base gig along the way.

Last but not least, we have my favorite Reds breakout candidate, starting pitcher, Nick Lodolo. A former top prospect, Lodolo was crushed for a 4.76 ERA last season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Lodolo had an impressive 17.2 percent K-BB% and a 3.78 SIERA, suggesting that his ERA was inflated by a full run. He had a horribly unlucky 68.2 percent LOB rate, which we could also expect to improve by a few percentage points this year.

Possessing a devastating curve, Lodolo should post plus strikeout rates while suppressing power in a difficult park. Lodolo will finish with an ERA under 3.75, rounding out an underrated Reds rotation that is six men deep if you include top prospect Rhett Lowder.

The Reds haven’t won a playoff series since 1995, the longest drought in the majors by a decade. Elly and company will get that monkey off their backs and shock the baseball world with a playoff run in 2025.

Yusei Kikuchi Finishes In The Top Three For AL Cy Young Voting

Yusei, I only hear what I want to. And what I want to hear about is another leap forward for the 33-year-old southpaw. Kikuchi’s 2024 surface stats are hardly that of a Cy Young candidate; he went 8-9 with a 4.05 ERA over 175.2 innings. But underneath the hood, things look a lot better for one of the newest Angels. The following are all career-bests for Kikuchi. A 22 percent K-BB%, 28 percent strikeout rate, a 3.20 xFIP, 3.30 SIERA, and 16.8 percent swinging-strike rate. Those are good numbers on their own, which suggest that Kikuchi could perform much better in 2025 if he continues to pitch this well.

What’s especially interesting about Kikuchi is how well he pitched after a midseason trade to Houston. He was practically a different pitcher with the Astros and looked like one of the best arms in baseball. In 60 innings with Houston, Kikuchi posted a 2.70 ERA, 25.9 percent K-BB%, and a 2.74 xFIP. He raised his strikeout rate to 11.4 K/9, which was Chris Sale’s exact strikeout rate last season. I’ve also been impressed by how much Kikuchi has improved his walk rate over the years. When he was with Seattle, Kikuchi had walk rates between 9-12 percent. Last season, his walk rate was just six percent.

60 innings is a small sample size, but Kikuchi made big changes in his pitch mix following the trade. Here's a look at his month-by-month pitch usage from last season.

His slider usage exploded, going from 17 percent with Toronto to 37 percent with Houston. It worked, too, because with Houston, batters hit just .162 against the slider with a .038 ISO. The 14.1 percent swinging-strike rate didn’t change following the trade, the pitch was just always good. The Angels signed Kikuchi for his Houston performance, so we’ll likely see a pitch mix similar to the one he had with the Astros.

The slider isn’t Kikuchi’s only good pitch, either. His fastball has decent velocity for his age at 95.5 mph, and his changeup has proven to be effective against right-handed batters. Opponents hit .194 with a .198 xBA and .220 xwOBA against Kikuchi’s changeup last season. He also has a solid curveball that he used about 17% of the time. It’s a big league arsenal, and what’s even more exciting is that Kikuchi is working on adding a sweeper to the mix in 2025.

He’s only made one spring start as of writing this, but he did throw the sweeper 21 percent of the time and had a 33 percent whiff rate with it in that outing, though it was only one whiff. The sweeper is much softer than his slider at 80.6 mph and has a higher spin rate at 2635 RPM. This could be an excellent weapon alongside his slider and could cause Kikuchi to use his curveball or changeup less often. If healthy, Kikuchi will dominate with his new pitch mix and new pitch, going 180 innings with a sub-3 ERA and 220+ strikeouts.

Willson Contreras Finishes As C1 In Fantasy (In Points)

Willson’s younger brother, William, is the consensus No. 1 catcher off the board this season, but there’s plenty to be excited about in Willson’s game, too. The big change for Contreras is positional; he’ll be moving away from being a catcher and playing first base full-time in 2025. This should give him a playing time advantage over the full-time catchers ahead of him, like William Contreras and Adley Rutschman.

Even at age 32, Contreras hits the ball hard and makes excellent quality contact. Last season, he had a 91.6 mph average exit velocity and a 46.8 percent hard-hit rate, which is good for second and fourth-best, respectively, among qualified catchers. Contreras also raised his launch angle to 14.2 degrees last season, giving him career highs in line drive and fly ball rate. Hard line drives and fly balls are exactly what we want, and we could realistically expect more base hits and more extra-base hits this season.

Contreras also has exceptional plate discipline, walking 12.6 percent of the time last season, putting him in the 97^th percentile for walk rate in 2024. He’s slated to play every day and bat third, meaning plenty of opportunities to rack up counting stats.

If healthy, Contreras could lead all catcher-eligible players in PA; most projection systems have him racking up between 550-600 PA. That is an excellent volume for a catcher, and it’s a bonus that Contreras can swing the bat pretty well. We’ll see spikes in both counting and rate stats for Contreras in 2025, and his plus walk rate will have him as the No. 1 catcher in points leagues.

Jeff Hoffman Is A Top-3 RP

Once a top prospect with Colorado, Hoffman flamed out as a starter and found a home in the bullpen as a late-game reliever. He was a solid middle reliever prior to 2023, but Hoffman went up a level when he came to Philadelphia. In two seasons as a Phillie, Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 26 percent K-BB%, and a 12.0 K/9. Now, in Toronto, Hoffman is the favorite for saves on a team that projects to win about 83 games, meaning plenty of save opportunities.

Hoffman is going far too late in drafts, around pick 135 in NFBC leagues over the last month. That’s nuts for a closer with these kinds of ratios and strikeout upside. Hoffman is a complete reliever with command of four strong pitches. He had a whiff rate greater than 31 percent on three of four pitches last season and had a monster 45.2 percent whiff rate on his slider in 2024. Hoffman’s slider is filthy, boasting 4.4 inches of drop above league average. Hoffman’s slider also has an extremely high 2830 RPM. Batters can’t handle this pitch, mustering a .198 BA, .178 xBA, and .227 xwOBA off Hoffman’s slider last year.

Hoffman’s strikeout rate and control have gotten better for him every season, which is why I think he can beat some pessimistic projections. Most projections have him with at least a 3.0 BB/9, but Hoffman has really improved on that over the past two seasons. With some BABIP and LOB luck, Hoffman could have a sub-2 ERA and 35+ saves, making him an elite closer in fantasy for a cheap price. Overall, this is a good year to wait on closers. Felix Bautista, Ryan Walker, Andres Munoz, and Jeff Hoffman are all great names to grab after pick 80.

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