Way-Too-Early 2020 Mock Draft Reaction

Justin Carter evaluates the results of RotoBaller's way too early mock draft for the 2020 fantasy football season. Our analysts get a feel for pre-NFL Draft values on QB, RB, WR, and TE before rookies enter the league.

Mock Draft SZN is here! Oh, wait...no, it's actually far too early for anyone to be doing mock drafts. Except us, the RotoBallers, because we couldn't wait to do a mock draft and I'm here to talk about the results.

Below, you'll find my commentary on this totally accurate 2020 mock draft before the NFL Draft has taken place. So, what can we take away from this draft? Let's talk about some things I noticed in our mock.

Here's the link to our draft board on Sleeper if you want to look at the whole thing up close, or check out the screenshots below and click for a larger image.

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Way-Too-Early Draft Board

Observations From the First Round

While a lot of things can change between now and the 2020 NFL season, the first round of mock drafts are probably the most stable thing in fantasy during the offseason. We kind of know who is and isn't going to be a first-round fantasy pick at this point and not a ton will change.

Having said that, one thing that will shift around is the order of those first-round picks. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley going first and second seems like something we can count on, but after that, we arrive in a little bit of a quandary.

Dalvin Cook went third here, and in a vacuum that makes a ton of sense, but Cook's injury list makes me wonder just how exactly he's valued come draft time in this top-five running back group. But Alvin Kamara is coming off a disappointing year and Ezekiel Elliott isn't the most versatile guy and has had some heavy workloads in his career, so this will be a really interesting decision. Maybe that fifth pick is one you should covet.

The first receiver, Michael Thomas, went off the board at six, but he's coming off a historic season and you could justify taking him as high as third, in my opinion.

We didn't have any huge surprises in the first round, though, as things mainly went about as expected.

Round 2 -- Things Start To Get Weirder

It feels like there's a talent cliff somewhere around Pick 14. Le'Veon Bell went at 2.03 and Bell's great, but there's so much uncertainty about his role with the Jets and the Adam Gase offense that I just don't know if 2.03 is too high for him.

At 2.04, I picked Austin Ekeler, which is one of those things that I didn't feel good at all about. We aren't even sure yet if Ekeler is going to be the lead back for the Chargers or who their quarterback will be in 2020. Until we do gain some clarity there, how do we take him as high as I did? I guess there's some projection here, but I could see Ekeler's value sliding around a lot between now and the start of the season.

Damien Williams at 2.09 is another interesting one. Williams never lived up to the hype and was a massive disappointment as a second-round pick last season, but his playoff performance has him right back in the conversation for a high draft spot. If the Chiefs decide to stick with Williams and don't bring in someone else, he could float up higher in drafts, but I still don't think he floats up to the second round. Too many of us were burned by him last year to justify that.

Where Did Last Year's Busts Go?

It's always interesting to see how we reassess the value of players after they just had a very bad season, so let's take a look at some post-bust players ended up doing in this mock:

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 3.03

The Steelers wideout finished 2019 as just the WR62, but he only played 11 games and didn't have Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Big Ben is expected to be back and healthy, and while his age is a concern and his ability to throw a football could disappear at any moment, we should probably expect more from Smith-Schuster in his third NFL campaign. He's a talented, young receiver who I'd definitely be interested in around the third round.

David Montgomery: 5.01

Okay, maybe calling Montgomery a bust is a lot, but he was one of the most hyped rookies last year and he ended up finishing as the RB25, behind such luminaries as Carlos Hyde, Kenyan Drake, and Raheem Mostert.

But he's a second-year back on a team that should run the ball plenty. He went off as the 23rd running back taken in this draft, which is right in line with where he finished last year. But Montgomery's age and skill set mean that he should improve this season, so getting him at 5.01 seems fair, though I know there are people who would object to that and say Montgomery is more of a sixth-round guy.

James Conner: 5.11

Another Steeler makes this list. In theory, Conner shouldn't have been impacted as much by Roethlisberger's absence as Smith-Schuster was, and on a per-game basis, he wasn't really, as Conner's 14.6 PPR points per game put him as the RB16 in points per game among backs to play 10 or more games.

But Conner did appear in just 10 contests, and that caused his overall ranking to fall to RB31. I'd definitely be willing to take Conner late in the fifth round this year provided we have some assurances that he'll be the top back in Pittsburgh.

A.J. Green: 5.12

Green didn't play at all in 2019, so it'll be interesting to see how he's valued. He should have a new quarterback in Joe Burrow who'll sling the ball around the field, but is he going to be close to the player he was in his prime after all the various injuries? Will he even be a Bengal in 2020? So many questions, but the late fifth or sixth seem like good times to take a chance on Green.

David Johnson: 6.12

And, of course, the big one. David Johnson looked completely done down the stretch. He's almost certainly going to be leaving Arizona. He's not guaranteed to find a starting role, especially with a fairly good rookie running back class coming in.

But he's not that far removed from being one of the NFL's most exciting players, and late sixth round is a good spot to take a risk on a guy with this kind of upside. At that cost, you won't be hurt too much by Johnson if what we saw down the stretch is what he is now. You'll be able to reap the rewards if an offseason to heal up and a new team helps him become that dynamic threat in the run and pass game again.

Let's Talk Sleepers

Let's highlight a few players taken in Round 10 or later who I've got my eyes on as potential sleepers next season.

Anthony Miller: 10.04

Miller enters his third NFL season on a relatively high note, as from Week 11 on he was targeted nine or more times in four out of seven games, and in four of Chicago's final five games, his snap rate was over 85 percent.

It seems fair to assume that Miller opens the year as the Bears' number-two guy at receiver. While Mitch Trubisky's inconsistency can't be discounted as an issue, the Bears could potentially move on and find another quarterback, as they've been linked to guys like Andy Dalton in the trade market. Dalton would immediately boost Miller's stock.

Darius Slayton: 10.10

Not much to say here. Slayton became rookie signal caller Daniel Jones' favorite target down the stretch. Jones should be better in his second season. Slayton should be as well. Round 10 is a huge, huge value here for someone with Slayton's upside, and he's almost certainly going to go higher than that by the time actual fantasy drafts arrive.

Ito Smith: 11.08

Devonta Freeman won't be back in Atlanta this year. The best guess is that the Falcons look for a running back in the draft, but don't discount Ito Smith and, to a lesser extent, Qadree Ollison, in terms of this position for Atlanta. As a possible starting running back in an offense that's produced some solid years from Freeman this late in the draft, he's worth a shot.

Kelvin Harmon: 16.04

Shout out to the guy I took with my final selection. Washington just doesn't have a receiver on their roster beyond Terry McLaurin that makes me say "yeah, he's good," but they have a second-year quarterback and a new head coach, two things that should result in improved offensive play. Harmon can benefit from that improved play, and he was on the field a ton at the end of the year, getting five targets or more in five of Washington's last seven games. Harmon won't set the world on fire, but I think he could be a solid bye-week replacement in 2020, and he's gettable at a low cost.

Quarterback and Tight End Trends

Let's spend just a little time looking at some of the things we did at these two positions.

Quarterback

Expert mocks are never representative of when quarterbacks are taken in real fantasy drafts, but the order that the guys went can help you plan some things. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson as the first three guys taken seems obvious, but things get more interesting beyond that.

We had a run on passers in the eighth. Russell Wilson, then a popular breakout candidate in Kyler Murray, followed by the always consistent Dak Prescott. The seventh quarterback taken was Jameis Winston, and if he ends up back in Tampa leading Bruce Arian's offense, sure. But whoever the Buccaneers passer is should put up strong numbers due to the offensive system they use, so maybe we should call this selection "Buccaneers Team QB" for now.

Josh Allen was the ninth quarterback taken. I would love to draft Allen as the ninth quarterback taken. I don't really buy into his long term viability as an NFL starter still, but his rushing floor makes him a good short term investment.

Tom Brady was not drafted. At all.

Tight End

The first three guys, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Zach Ertz, remain the same, although I think that order feels less fluid than it did last year.

Our next one was Mark Andrews in Round 5. That's another one that makes sense, as he's grown tremendously in the Ravens offense as a key weapon for Lamar Jackson.

Austin Hooper at 7.01 is interesting for the "where does he play?" factor. Green Bay reportedly will take a run at him and possibly Chicago. The Packers haven't been the greatest place for tight ends with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but some of that has been talent-related.

Evan Engram and Hunter Henry going back-to-back in Round 7 feels appropriate. Tyler Higbee was a huge riser at the end of 2019 and went Round 9. Greg Olsen in his new home with Seattle went in Round 16 as the final tight end drafted.

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