Early Division Standings Predictions for 2024 - NFL Power Rankings

Dave Ventresca breaks down where each NFL team will finish in their division during the 2024 season.

We are now less than three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft. Teams are currently working around the clock to finalize their draft boards. It’s just one of the ways teams are trying to improve their rosters.

The beauty of the NFL? There’s always parity. Surprise teams emerge and teams once thought of as contenders reveal themselves to be frauds. It’s the nature of the NFL. Just last year, we saw the Texans rise from an embarrassing 3-13-1 2022 season to win their division and advance to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Who will be the surprise team(s) in the 2024 season?

Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Now, it’s time to put pen to paper and make some early calls on who finishes where in each division.

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AFC East

1.) New York Jets

The Jets have had a great offseason so far. They beefed up the offensive line by signing former Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith. Former Chargers receiver Mike Williams joins the receiving room, and they added pass-rusher Haason Reddick via a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles. Armed with last year's third overall defense in DVOA per FTN, the Jets are equipped to dethrone the Bills as AFC East champs.

2.) Buffalo Bills

Buffalo had to make some tough decisions this offseason. As a result, the Bills moved on from center Mitch Morse, safety Jordan Poyer, corner Tre’Davious White, and All-Pro receiver Stefon Diggs. Buffalo has gotten worse on paper. They’ll still be in contention thanks to quarterback Josh Allen. Their losses, though, can mean the difference between a division title and a Wild Card berth.

3.) Miami Dolphins

Now missing Christian Wilkins, Robert Hunt, Xavien Howard, and Jerome Baker, Miami is dealing with its share of departures this offseason as well. Facing stiff competition, the Dolphins may struggle to make the playoffs for the third consecutive season. They’ll need quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to take his game to the next level.

4.) New England Patriots

Bill Belichick is gone, and the Patriots have a lot of work to do. They’ll add their franchise quarterback with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft, but this team still has a lot of holes. Expect another tough year for New England.

AFC North

1.) Baltimore Ravens

While 2023 ended in a disappointing AFC title game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore is equipped to make another run in 2024. It added running back Derrick Henry in free agency and are banking on him taking the offense to another level. With two-time MVP Lamar Jackson leading the charge, Baltimore will once again be a contender.

2.) Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow returns for the 2024 season. That’ll be enough to keep Cincinnati competitive. However, they did lose offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to the Titans. They also lost defensive tackle D.J. Reader, cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, and tackle Jonah Williams. Factor in questions about Burrow’s durability, and the Bengals could struggle again.

3.) Cleveland Browns

The Browns are the biggest wild card entering 2024. Joe Flacco led the team to a Wild Card berth after starter Deshaun Watson was injured. Cleveland finished with the No. 2 defense in terms of DVOA last year. This unit will be strong again. The Browns’ success will ultimately come down to Watson. If he can return to form, they can win this division. If not, they’ll again be left wondering why exactly they traded for Watson.

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has not won a playoff game since 2016. That’s an eternity in the NFL. Owner Art Rooney II has made it known he wants the franchise to return to its winning ways in the postseason. Relying on a Russell Wilson/Justin Fields quarterback combination may not be the answer. Mike Tomlin is currently in a contract season. He’s a great coach, but if the Steelers come up short again, it may be time for a shake-up in the Steel City.

AFC South

1.) Houston Texans

Last year’s surprise division winners are in a prime position to return to the playoffs. With the addition of receiver Stefon Diggs, second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud should continue to improve. Expect head coach DeMeco Ryans to continue tweaking the defense and for the Texans to capture a second consecutive division title.

2.) Tennessee Titans

The Titans have had a busy offseason. They signed Chidobe Awuzie, Calvin Ridley, and Tony Pollard in free agency. Then, they turned around and traded for Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and gave him a four-year, $76 million contract. Tennessee is eyeing a quick turnaround with these moves. Ultimately, it will all hinge on second-year quarterback Will Levis’ development. First-year head coach Brian Callahan had success developing Joe Burrow in Cincinnati. If Callahan has similar success with Levis, the Titans can surprise.

3.) Indianapolis Colts

Coach Shane Steichen did an incredible job leading this team to the brink of a playoff berth after losing starting quarterback Anthony Richardson for the season in Week 5. Richardson flashed during his rookie season but struggled mightily with injuries. Indianapolis will need him fully healthy if it hopes to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

4.) Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 was nothing short of a disappointment. Jacksonville had Super Bowl hopes coming into the year. Off to an 8-3 start, things were looking good. However, a 1-5 finish knocked the Jaguars completely out of the playoffs. It was a head-scratching collapse and highlighted the issues on both sides of the ball for this team. Head coach Doug Pederson could quickly find himself on the hot seat if last year’s end-of-season struggles carry over into 2024.

AFC West

1.) Kansas City Chiefs

The two-time defending Super Bowl champions took a punch to the gut when they traded corner L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans. Despite this loss, they were able to re-sign defensive line stalwart Chris Jones to a five-year, $158 million contract. Kansas City also signed free-agent receiver Marquise Brown to help boost the wide receiver room. Expect the Chiefs to capture their ninth straight division title, as they hope to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.

2.) Las Vegas Raiders

After naming linebackers coach Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach, Las Vegas began to turn its season around. Pierce led the team to a 5-4 record during his nine-game stint and was hired full-time as a result. Las Vegas opened up free agency with a bang when it landed defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to help solidify the team’s defense.

Christian Wilkins. Jaelan Phillips. The Dolphins force a turnover on 4th down 😤

📺: #LVvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/jckqnJwdb2 pic.twitter.com/uoLwteOQIg

— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023

The main issue that can hold this team back is its quarterback play. They’ll need better than Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell if they hope to knock off the Chiefs.

3.) Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers swung big this offseason and landed former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh as their new lead man. Unfortunately, Los Angeles was forced to move on from several long-tenured players in salary-cap-saving moves. Harbaugh is a proven winner, and he will get this team on a winning trajectory. 2024 may be more of a soft reboot year with better results in 2025.

4.) Denver Broncos

Things are looking bleak in Denver. It sent starting quarterback Russell Wilson packing and ate a staggering $85 million dead money hit. The Broncos have some nice building blocks, but they need a franchise quarterback. Coach Sean Payton has his work cut out for him. Things will probably get worse before they start to get better.

NFC East

1.) Philadelphia Eagles

It was a tough day for Eagles fans when center Jason Kelce announced his retirement. There’s now a gaping hole in Philadelphia’s offensive line. Luckily, they have Cam Jurgens ready to step in for Kelce. Philadelphia signed Saquon Barkley to upgrade at running back but also traded edge-rusher Haason Reddick to the New York Jets. While the offense still has an abundance of talent, its defense is a major question mark. Philadelphia is coming off a tough end to 2023, but there is still plenty of talent on offense to make another run.

2.) Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys were very quiet in free agency. Their biggest signing to date has been former Vikings and Chargers linebacker Eric Kendricks. Dallas lost Tony Pollard and Tyron Smith in free agency. They should still be in playoff contention again this year. As things stand now, though, we can’t really say they have improved in any way this offseason.

3.) Washington Commanders

Currently holding the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Commanders are poised to select their new franchise quarterback. There is enough talent on offense that it may not take long for a rookie to get acclimated. Washington signed Austin Ekeler to a two-year deal in free agency and still have receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in the mix. Offense is where this team will need to thrive as the defense is still very much a work in progress for new head coach Dan Quinn.

4.) New York Giants

New York has to figure out what it is doing at quarterback. How much more does it need to see from Daniel Jones? The Giants hold the sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft. They have a glaring need at wide receiver. It’s also been rumored they might be interested in taking a young quarterback. Either way, this roster still has a lot of needs. While they hit a home run snagging Brian Burns, it’s hard to see them competing soon given the major questions surrounding quarterback.

NFC North

1.) Detroit Lions

It’s hard not to peg the Lions for a repeat. They are returning many key players on offense as well as play-caller Ben Johnson. They added guard Kevin Zeitler to further boost their offensive line and will continue building their defense in the draft. There will be tougher competition within the division, but Detroit is well-armed for a second straight division title.

2.) Green Bay Packers

Green Bay gave young quarterback Jordan Love another weapon on offense when it signed running back Josh Jacobs in free agency. The Packers offense should only get better as they continue building around their latest franchise quarterback. Green Bay is young, but it is loaded with talent. It will be a fun battle between the Packers and Lions for NFC North supremacy.

3.) Chicago Bears

Bears fans may finally get their wish for a star quarterback. Chicago is set to take quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick in the NFL Draft. The Bears traded for veteran receiver Keenan Allen to help ease Williams’ transition to the NFL. Chicago also owns the ninth overall pick to improve the roster in other areas. Expect to see the Bears flirt with a playoff berth in 2024, and if Williams is legitimate, they could return to the postseason.

4.) Minnesota Vikings

So far, there may not be a bigger loser this offseason than Minnesota. Kirk Cousins bolted for the Atlanta Falcons in free agency and left the Vikings in quarterback purgatory. In response, they signed Sam Darnold to a one-year deal. He’s currently the top quarterback on the roster. Minnesota has two first-round picks to potentially trade up for a young quarterback. Whether it’s Darnold or a rookie under center, it’s a tall ask for either player to lead them to the playoffs.

NFC South

1.) Atlanta Falcons

When Atlanta inked quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in the opening hours of NFL free agency, it completely changed the outlook. The Falcons could have easily won the division last year had it not been for abysmal quarterback play. With the Cousins signing, expect them to address their lack of pass-rushers in the draft and win their first division title since 2016.

2.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers made sure to take care of their own this offseason. They re-signed Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield to keep them with the team. Tampa Bay did lose offensive coordinator Dave Canales to the division-rival Carolina Panthers. Mayfield enjoyed a career year under Canales and could regress without him. If Mayfield does, Tampa Bay likely takes a step back as well.

3.) Carolina Panthers

Carolina brought in the aforementioned Canales to help turn around Bryce Young’s career. Canales has worked wonders for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield over the last two years. It will be interesting to see how/if he improves Young’s play. With the addition of receiver Diontae Johnson, Carolina seems committed to helping its young quarterback. Work still needs to be done on the offensive line and defense. If Canales can help Young improve, Carolina could turn some heads.

4.) New Orleans Saints

For those who say the salary cap doesn’t exist and is overrated, please see below:

Saints will have to restructure all of their mid 30s players again after another offseason of "salary cap isn't real 😂" tactics in 2023 pic.twitter.com/ut0BKd6v63

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) December 22, 2023

a different spin on the Saints cap:

the NFC South is a largely incompetent division

the worst win rate of any division the last 2 years, 2nd worst the last 3 years

yet the Saints can't achieve their goals and even make the playoffs largely because of their approach off the…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 23, 2024

Man, New Orleans is in bad shape. They did hire Klint Kubiak to help the offense, but it may be too little too late. This is an older roster paired with a head coach who is 22 games under .500 for his career. 2024 may finally be the year New Orleans starts to crack and float away into the Gulf of Mexico.

NFC West

1.) San Francisco 49ers

The reigning NFC champions are positioned to make another deep playoff run. San Francisco remains one of the upper-echelon teams in the NFC. Now another year older, they remain the division favorites, but the window may soon start to close.

2.) Los Angeles Rams

As it stands now, the Rams are set to pick in the first round of the NFL Draft for the first time in the Sean McVay/Les Snead era. It’s a pivotal draft for Los Angeles as quarterback Matthew Stafford turned 36 this year. They also lost future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald when he opted for retirement. Many believed the Rams overachieved last season. They might be due for regression in 2024.

3.) Arizona Cardinals

It was a tough first season in Arizona for new coach Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals did display toughness and played hard all year. They added tackle Jonah Williams to help quarterback Kyler Murray and the offensive line. This is a team still in rebuild mode with some work left to do. If they make the right additions in the draft, they could make some noise.

4.) Seattle Seahawks

After a disappointing 9-8 season, Seattle moved on from longtime coach Pete Carroll and replaced him with former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Seattle has a good, young roster, but several question marks remain, starting with quarterback Geno Smith. They’ll need to address this issue as well as Pro Football Focus’s 28th-ranked offensive line to avoid falling behind in the division.

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