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RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at RB Aaron Jones, QB Cam Newton, and WR Laviska Shenault Jr.
Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.
Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.
This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.
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Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Age: 26 (December)
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank RB17
Updated Rank RB14
Aaron Jones was the most fantasy-relevant RB hitting the free-agent market in 2021. Now securely back in Green Bay, Jones’ ADP shot up instantly. Even before he re-signed with the Packers this week, Jones was getting drafted among the top-20 RBs in dynasty startups. In the small sample of FFPC drafts we looked at since the news broke, Jones is getting drafted right after the elite second-year RBs like Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers. Interestingly, Aaron Jones is still more desirable to drafters than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had the richest ADP in 2020 of this tier.
As much as dynasty players like to believe we think long-term, we are as susceptible to recency bias as our redraft counterparts. The bottom line is that Aaron Jones is at the peak of his powers with an alpha role in a great offense. Even at his new ranking of RB14, he represents an underpriced value. Drafters will have a tough time deciding between Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliott.
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
Age: 31 (May)
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank QB30
Updated Rank QB24
Cam Newton is going back to New England in 2021 on a one-year, incentive-laced contract. Newton will have a base salary of around $5,000,000 with an upside to make about $14,000,000. Cam’s contract represents elite backup QB money rather than starter cash. Superflex startup players can stop avoiding Newton and proactively draft him at his current 10th round ADP. Other QBs with uncertain 2022 starter status (two years out) are getting drafted four to five rounds earlier. Players like Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold are far from locks to keep their jobs this season, not to mention in 2022.
New England opened their wallet early in free agency, committing to offensive players Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne. None of these players are game breakers, but collectively with incumbent upside player Jakobi Meyers, Cam will have professional pass catchers in 2021. Cam was below the acceptable threshold of competency as a passer in 2020, but we are willing to give him another chance (at his Superflex ADP) due to the severe lack of offensive talent last year. Cam was an effective runner in 2020, most notably in the first two weeks, scoring four rushing touchdowns.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX)
Age: 22 (October)
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank WR45
Updated Rank WR37
RosterWatch was higher than the market on Shenault’s rookie ADP. We had him firmly inside of the top-15 overall rookie players. Shenault didn’t “break out” in his rookie season, but showed consistent flashes of game-breaking ability. Given the state of the 2020 Jaguars offense, we would grade Shenault’s rookie season a win.
In 2021, we know the offense will be better. Presumptive number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence gets the keys to the offense along with new head coach Urban Meyer. There is still some risk with Shenault, as it is tough to say for sure how the new staff will deploy him. That same uncertainty is depressing his “sophomore” teammate James Robinson's ADP, relative to his rookie performance. Dynasty startup players are drafting Laviska Shenault inside the top-36 WRs. If you want Shenault, you will have to jump our rankings slightly. Shenault is a buzzy name to roster but it is tough to see him out-producing older players like Julio Jones, Robby Anderson, and Adam Thielen over the next two seasons. Recent rumors that D.J. Chark Jr. could be traded warrant gambling on Shenault.
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