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RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at RB Derrick Henry, Melvin Gordon, and WR Mike Williams.
This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.
Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.
Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.
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Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Age: 27
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank: 33 Overall
Updated Rank 27 Overall
Positional Rank: Unchanged - RB15
In the back offices at RosterWatch HQ, Derrick Henry has been one of our most polarizing players to rank in dynasty. He is an easy top-five redraft player in most formats. There is no question that Henry is one of the best three runners in the NFL. Derrick Henry has been hyper-productive and has shown no signs of slowing down. One of the best parts of making Derrick Henry your first-round redraft pick is that he seldom shows up on the weekly injury report.
The downward pressure on Henry’s dynasty ranking is his age. Henry is entering his age-27 season, and has averaged over 340 rush attempts over the past two seasons. That does not factor in two deep playoff runs where Henry was given large workloads. The answer to Henry’s ranking lies between two fantasy football cliches:
“It’s better to get out a year too early than a year too late.”
“Ride ‘em until the wheels fall off, I’m trying to win a fantasy football championship.”
There is no wrong answer. Henry is a defensible top-15 overall dynasty pick, and it is also reasonable to wait until the two/three turn to draft him. Where you draft Derrick Henry will determine how the rest of your dynasty build takes shape.
Mike Williams, L.A. Chargers
Age: 26
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank: WR55
Updated Rank WR48
RosterWatch co-founder Byron Lambert recently identified Mike Williams as a player we need to get a little higher on in our dynasty startup leagues. Williams already has a 1,000-yard season and a 10-touchdown season on his resume. The issue with Mike Williams is that he has yet to accomplish both achievements in the same season. Williams has never commanded the largest share of receptions on the team, mostly due to target hog Keenan Allen being the de facto “Alpha.” Nevertheless, the case for Mike Williams is easy to see.
Second-year entrenched starting QB, Justin Herbert’s core strength as a passer, lines up with what Williams does well. Mike Williams is one of the best downfield jump ball receivers in the NFL. The cost of acquisition to draft Mike Williams is relatively inexpensive and is worth proactively drafting him in case he has a late-career breakout, similar to what we saw with DeVante Parker and Corey Davis.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Age: 28
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank: RB26
Updated Rank RB35
Melvin Gordon is an obvious depreciating asset in dynasty. Most running backs entering their age 28 season lose value, but Gordon has additional red flags. The Denver Broncos traded up ahead of the Miami Dolphins to draft North Carolina rookie Javonte Willilams. Williams has impressed coaches in OTAs and there is beat writer talk about Williams having a major role from the start of the season.
Rumors are circulating that Melvin Gordon could be released. RosterWatch is not betting on that, due to Gordon’s contract status. Gordon is still an above replacement level professional NFL running back, who has a nose for the endzone. Even if Gordon were to get off to a solid start his trade value would likely not increase much at this stage of his career. That is a clear sign of a player we should drop in our rankings. If the price drops unreasonably on Melvin Gordon, he is a decent buy-low as veteran depth on your fantasy team.
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