DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Rocket Mortgage Classic Golf Advice (2023)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Rocket Mortgage Classic. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Rocket Mortgage Classic

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Rocket Mortgage Classic

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 5

Last Five Winners Of The Rocket Mortgage Classic

Expected Cut-Line

Detroit Golf Club

7,370 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass (With Poa Annua Mix)

Detroit Golf Club will host the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the fifth consecutive year, although it is hard to say that the first handful of iterations went according to plan. Winning scores of 25-under and 23-under took home the title in 2019 and 2020, and while the total did shrink to 18-under in 2021, mayhem ensued again last year when we saw Tony Finau lift the trophy at 26-under.

From a structural perspective, Donald Ross designed the venue in 1914, and the tree-lined nature of the facility hasn't seen much change from the day it was built. That potential for blockage from the trees to go along with four-inch thick rough and methodically placed bunkers should create a more difficult path to finding success, but a lot of the danger can still be taken out of play because of the wide-open nature of the land.

We see that from golfers hitting four percent more fairways here than a standard stop on tour, and the 12-yard increase in distance from 283 yards to 295 yards emphasizes how length can create an advantage, even if it is not the only path to finding success.

As everyone knows, I am not one to overly emphasize returns with the flat stick. Still, the 4.6% increase in dispersion of scoring with the putter moves the needle to over 40% of the allocated percentage and will be pronounced when trying to run your data for the week on this combination of Bentgrass and Poa greens.

I wanted to find golfers that were good with their wedges since 11.3% more shots occur from 0-150 yards than average, and it took that three-shot nature of adequate distance off the tee + good wedge play + solid putting to find some of the names that I decided to target for this year's Rocket Mortgage.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)

Weighted OTT + APP (10%)

Weighted ATG + Putt (10%)

Weighted Easy Scoring (10%)

Weighted Scoring (25%)

Prox 0-150 Yards + Weighted Putting (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Top 50 In All Six Categories:

This Week:

I will start updating these weekly on my model.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

It has become the standard weekly answer of trying to handicap a board where most of the names in the $10,000 section are inside the top handful of my sheet. A lot of this comes down to gut and feel before we mix that in with ownership later in the week.

Max Homa ($10,200) 

It isn't a requirement to start lineups in this section. There seems to be a small amount of inflation to these prices, including on the player I will be backing, but I do believe the three most natural entry points for exposure will come down to Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas or Max Homa. We will see where ownership moves throughout the next few days, but my early lean is to take a stand with Homa and build down from there.

Homa has generated two atrocious missed cuts after falling apart on Friday at the U.S. Open to accompany his Thursday meltdown at the Travelers. Still, it is one of those situations where my model continues to believe the American has been one of the bigger culprits of running bad in those critical moments.

My numbers had Homa projected 21st on the board for the way he struck the ball at Los Angeles Country Club after two rounds, and the same viewpoint will enter the mix when we dive into his 30th-place projection last weekend at TPC River Highlands.

Something has to give since I believe the form is falling under more of that unlucky answer than poor play, and his first-place rank for weighted strokes gained total for this week's venue only enhances that belief.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Sungjae Im ($9,400) 

We always seem to get that ownership discount lately on golfers entering an event from a win. That should leave Keegan Bradley under consideration if the numbers stay suppressed until Thursday.

However, I do think the best early selection looks to be Sungjae Im because of his massive ceiling that plays well at these birdie fest courses. Sungjae merges the top-ranked output in my model for expected scoring at Detroit Golf Club because of his ability to score on these more accessible tracks, and the data continues to point in his direction when we highlight his acumen both on and around the green when given corollary setups.

I would not be shocked if this is the spot where Sungjae finally gets himself back into the PGA Tour winner's circle after a long delay.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Ludvig Aberg ($8,700) 

I believe I will be in on Sepp Straka, Brian Harman and Adam Hadwin as other options grading profitably in my model. We will see where ownership goes before making those decisions since a lot can still change for names that are on the fringe of going either way. However, I decided to trust my incomplete data on Ludvig Aberg and treat him as where he landed on my sheet over recalculating the metrics to regress some of the totals.

Typically, I would hand-construct the data for anyone that has rendered under 10 events of tracking, but it is hard to say that Aberg is anything other than the real deal. The two-time Ben Hogan award winner in college and former number-one amateur ranked fifth in my sheet for recalculated scoring to fit Detroit Golf Club, helping make him one of only nine players in this field to crack the top 50 of every metric I handicapped for the week.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

Thomas Detry ($7,400) 

I am under the belief that Thomas Detry should have been an upper-priced $8,000 golfer over this middle-of-the-pack $7,000 mark.

Detry's recent form has left a little to be desired after a quick start to his 2023 campaign, but the profile reminds me a lot of what we saw from Cameron Davis here during his 2021 victory. Detry can score with his proximity from 0-150 yards when adding it to his putting nature (13th in this field), and the combination of distance and various other intangibles allowed him to grade 12th overall for me in weighted strokes gained total.

His inability this season to render high-end finishes might be something that could hold him back from reaching where I believe is possible. Still, I am taking a swing on him at anything over 100/1 in the betting market, as I thought 50/1 was the proper going rate. That made the Belgian the most mispriced golfer inside my model.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Chesson Hadley ($6,800) 

The course history for Hadley leaves a ton to be desired, but I am encouraged by the back-to-back made cuts that he is bringing into the week. Hadley ranked 21st in my model for weighted strokes gained total and sixth for proximity from 0-150 yards + weighted putting.

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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