DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The FedEx St. Jude Championship Golf Advice (2023)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The FedEx St. Jude Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The FedEx St. Jude Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 70
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 17

 

Last Five Winners Of The FedEx St. Jude Championship

2022	Will Zalatoris	-15
2021	Abraham Ancer	-16
2020	Justin Thomas	-13
2019	Brooks Koepka	-16
2018	Dustin Johnson	-19

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022
2021
2020
2019
2018

 

TPC Southwind

7,244 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

It is important to remember that TPC Southwind spent most of its time on the PGA Tour as a lower-tiered event for many years - only making the jump up to the WGC in 2019. While past data is still worth looking into since it tells some of what to expect, the last four seasons likely will be the best corollary you will find because of the quality of participants and the change from Bent to Bermuda grass.

In general, the venue is much larger than it may appear on paper. We see some of those factors come into play when looking into the 76 bunkers and 11 water hazards that help this course grade as one of the 15 most challenging events of the season. Still, the metrics are there for the taking when trying to facilitate our advantage for the week.

Nine of the last 11 winners have led the field in strokes gained tee to green, so we will attempt to pinpoint players who excel in that area, and an extra addition of approach play should give us a pretty good blueprint for how to attack the event in our research.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	TPC Southwind	PGA Average
Driving Distance	286	283
Driving Accuracy	56%	62%
GIR Percentage	59%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	59%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.45	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Strokes Gained Tee To Green (30%)

 

Strokes Gained Total TPC (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Fast Bermuda (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance + Scramble + GIR (10%)

 

Opportunities Created + Make Putt (10%)

 

Distance/Good Drive + GIR (10%)

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfer	Odds	Risk	Win
Jon Rahm	9.5	0.8	7.6
Tom Kim	50	0.14	7

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

It is a pick-your-poison spot up top, as all five names listed over $10,000 are ranked inside the top six of my model.

I am not going to attempt to talk anyone out of whatever route they deem most fitting for their preferred construction. However, I am leaning toward Jon Rahm ($11,100) as my top choice for the week.

Rahm's $1,000 decrease over Scottie Scheffler will be pronounced since he is trending toward an additional decline in projected ownership. My model placed each inside of the top 10 of six of the seven categories I ran, with the only substantial deviation taking place with the downside for Scheffler's putter. Rahm's 13th-place grade for opportunities created + make percentage managed to outshine Scheffler's 40th-place mark, warranting the pivot when looking into my math.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I am out on Jordan Spieth this week. That would be my one true fade candidate in this range that I will not play at nearly any ownership percentage. We see it a little under 7.5% on Monday, but it likely would need to get into the 2% range for me to change my mind. There are different pivot options to consider in other sections that I like more.

Cantlay, Hatton, Fleetwood, Fowler and Morikawa are intriguing for one reason or another. I don't love the early ownership projections around Fowler/Morikawa. That would likely push me in a different direction. Still, my early lean is to shoot for the best upside option in this range when talking about Patrick Cantlay ($9,800) and stomach the salary increase compared to everyone else.

Cantlay has become a DFS/betting stay-away because of his recent boom-or-bust nature, but his total driving grade + increase for projected proximity shouldn't be ignored at a venue that will reward his ball-striking acumen. If the ownership starts trending in his direction, we can reassess later in the week.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

There are a ton of potential pivot options in this section that won't garner much traction. I am going to leave some of those decisions for another day because more than half the section is full of bright blue in my model for "Ownership vs. Model Rank."

You can get a general idea of where my model is on each player in the image above if you are looking to narrow down choices.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and create the possibility to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Here are the top players from the $7,000s

It is a good section here in the $7,000s, where the entire range seems to be littered in the top 30 from the image above. That will give us a ton of options to consider, although I am going to ignore any of the injury concerns with Tom Kim ($7,800) and call him my favorite play in the section on Monday afternoon.

Kim has an upside potential to win this event at the 50/1 price you can find in the enhanced market over with my friends at Bet365, and the fourth-place grade for weighted tee to green continued that trend since it landed him next to Si Woo Kim, Justin Rose, Cameron Davis, Lucas Glover, Sepp Straka and Corey Conners as one of the names to grade inside the top 20 of the field in that category.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

We will dive deeper into this section later in the week.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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