DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Farmers Insurance Open With Xander Schauffele, Sahith Theegala, Taylor Pendrith and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Farmers Insurance Open

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Farmers Insurance Open Model

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: Eight

 

Last Five Winners Of The Farmers Insurance Open

2023	Max Homa	-13
2022	Luke List	-15
2021	Patrick Reed	-14
2020	Marc Leishman	-15
2019	Justin Rose	-21

 

Expected Cut-Line

2022	-2
2021	-2
2020	-1
2019	-1
2018	-5

 

Torrey Pines South + Torrey Pines North

7,698 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa (South)

You are going to hear a lot of the same answers when reading articles about the optimal path in modeling this split-course rotation out at Torrey Pines.

The thing about the tournament is that everyone seems to project the same outcome for the week. It is easy to look at past leaderboards and immediately pinpoint distance, long iron proximity and various forms of scrambling. The contrarian in me won't even try to differentiate or discredit those thoughts because there is a ton of credence for why those factors matter when scoring over on the South location. You are likely building the wrong sort of model if you don't use those factors and add them into the mix. That said, I tend to believe the industry undervalues the singular round players get on either Wednesday or Thursday at the North.

First off, that isn't a typo. The event is moved up a day to avoid the destruction Patrick Mahomes (and now Taylor Swift) will cause to golf viewership. I am sure I will lose most of my money this week by fading the Chiefs on the road against a championship-ready Ravens squad. However, I will digress back to the reason you are here and talk more about why the North is so critical to the end-game outcome.

The difference between last week's split-course rotation at the American Express and this tournament stems from the vast disparity in potential scoring output between the stops. There is no other way to shake it; the American Express was a birdie fest that allowed an amateur to get to nearly 30-under par to capture the title. Easy requirements at all three venues mitigated any potential edge you could find elsewhere, which is about the polar opposite between what we get this week.

Most iterations of this contest have produced a winning score somewhere between 13 and 15 under. When you dive into the fact that the last five winners of this tournament have shot between four to nine under during their one-off chance at the more straightforward North property, it begins to highlight the need to get off to a quick start where scoring is possible.

We have seven holes at the North with over a 20% birdie or better percentage, including four par-five setups that produce significant eagle rates. A much flatter setup and slower Bentgrass surface versus its South counterpart also helps to create some of that ease by asking for more short-to-mid irons over the redundant ask from outside of 200+ at the South.

While the tournament will undoubtedly be won/lost on the weekend when the field gets back to the behemoth 7,700-yard layout, the one surefire way to remove yourself from contention is to underachieve at the location where a 68 is typically the minimum threshold if you want to win the title.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Torrey Pines (South)	PGA Average
Driving Distance	286	283
Driving Accuracy	52%	62%
GIR Percentage	62%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	52%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.73	0.54

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Tee-To-Green (35%)

 

Weighted Poa + Bent (15%)

 

Strokes Gained Total Long Courses (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (20%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Player	Odds	Risk	Win
Sahith Theegala	35	0.2	7
Robert MacIntyre	350	0.02	7
Taylor Pendrith	125	0.06	7.5
Jhonattan Vegas	400	0.02	8
Akshay Bhatia	90	0.08	7.2

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I will take a deeper dive into all of these sections tomorrow. I don't see a point in releasing an article on Monday and then doing the same piece again less than 24 hours later.

I thought the best answer was to show who ranked best in my model and where I had their projected totals. Ownership is going to be extremely important this week since most of the top-tiered names graded well, meaning that large-field contests may require a little more risk that might make us cringe.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

There are some massively popular options early in Keegan Bradley and Sahith Theegala. My model also likes both names for whatever that is worth.

My early lean for leverage comes from Nicolai Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk. Top-22 grades in my model and sub-seven percent ownership on Monday could present that GPP-breaking answer we are always looking for weekly, although I want to see where numbers land before locking in a decision. 

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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