RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! Let me kick off this week's edition by wishing you all a very Happy New Year! Chances are that you will be spending at least a portion of this weekend in recovery mode from holiday festivities, so kick back, relax, and let me help guide you through this interesting Week 17 DraftKings slate.
After a Week 16 slate that was marked by the huge impact of COVID and littered with value options, it appears that this slate - at least at the time of this writing - will be fairly "normal" from an injury/COVID perspective. So, while the two weeks have been more about flexibility and player availability than anything, it looks as though we can spend Week 17 simply identifying the excellent plays.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 17. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 17 DFS Picks
Josh Allen - ATL @ BUF ($8,000)
Nothing fancy here, as Josh Allen is certainly a desirable spend-up option this week. The Bills' superstar hasn't been perfect this season, but Allen has displayed perhaps the best combination of DFS floor and ceiling in the league at the QB position. He heads into Week 17 on the heels of dropping 34 DraftKings points on the New England Patriots on the strength of 314 yards and three TDs through the air and 64 yards on the ground.
He'll find a much easier test at home this week against the scuffling Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons grade out just 31st in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA and have allowed the fourth-most DK points in the league to the QB position this season. At this point of the year, we must also consider a team's motivation and the Bills can secure the AFC East division title with wins in their last two games. The bottom line...Allen and this high-octane offense won't take their foot off the gas in this one against an Atlanta defensive unit that should provide little resistance.
Joe Burrow - KC @ CIN ($6,900)
This one admittedly feels a little "chasey" after Burrow exploded for an unreal 525 yards and four TDs through the air last week against Baltimore. Though this stands out as the type of situation in which I want to target Burrow and the Bengals' explosive passing attack, as they will likely be "pushed" by the Kansas City Chiefs. Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor has proven himself to be content to go run-heavy when possible, most likely in an effort to protect Joe Burrow behind what's been an extremely spotty offensive line. However, the Bengals won't have that luxury this week against Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offense that's put up 34 or more points in each of their last three. Volume has equaled DFS production for Burrow, as he's averaged 23.2 DK points over the nine games in which he's attempted 30 or more passes.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 17 DFS Picks
David Montgomery - NYG @ CHI ($6,500)
Despite a significant price bump for the Week 17 slate, you could argue that Chicago's David Montgomery is still something of a bargain thanks to his usage in this Bears offense. Since fully returning from an injury in Week 11, Montgomery has been on the field for 80% of Chicago's offensive snaps, a percentage that trails only Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor over that span. He's received a massive 135 total opportunities in that same time span, a number that includes an average of 5.8 targets per game.
Montgomery carries that expected volume into a home matchup against a New York Giants squad that is simply playing out the string at this point. New York stands just 27th in the league in Rush Defense DVOA and has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL this season.
Ronald Jones II - TB @ NYJ ($6,300)
The great Arnold Palmer once said, "Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated...". I think the same can be said of DFS. While there are certainly no guarantees in the complicated NFL from week to week, one simple approach we can take is to routinely target the New York Jets with running backs. "Gang Green" has been annihilated on the ground this season. They have allowed the most DK points in the NFL to the RB position by a wide margin, while they've also relinquished a league-high 22 TDs to opposing RBs.
With Tampa Bay's Leonard Fournette on IR, Ronald Jones II stepped into the workhorse role for the Bucs last week against Carolina. Jones received Fournette-like volume to the tune of 20 carries and three targets, which he converted into 81 total yards and a TD against a solid Panthers run defense. The Jets will provide no such challenge this week. Jones' combination of matchup and expected usage gives him one of the best DFS floors on the Week 17 slate.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 17 DFS Picks
Cooper Kupp - LAR @ BAL ($9,500)
I'm kinda cheating here, as Cooper Kupp could be included in this article on any given week and is basically a "play him if you can afford him" DFS option at the moment. That said, Kupp feels especially noteworthy this week in a smash matchup against a Ravens secondary that has been ravaged by injuries and has been consistently destroyed as a result. Baltimore ranks last in the NFL in yards per target allowed to opposing WRs and has also relinquished more pass plays of 20-plus yards than any team in the league. A unique amount of value on last week's slate made Kupp easy to roster and very popular. That is not the case in Week 17, which makes him a true separator in GPPs.
Jaylen Waddle - MIA @ TEN ($6,700)
Some might have questioned Miami's selection of Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick in last year's draft as a bit of a reach, but Waddle is making the Dolphins front office look smarter with each passing week. The rookie turned in a 10-catch, 92-yard beauty this past Monday night against a tough Saints unit and now stands just six catches behind Anquan Boldin's rookie record of 101 receptions. He'll have the opportunity to get there this week, as he's been targeted 10 or more times in each of Miami's last three.
The knock on Waddle has been his lack of explosive plays - and that's fair considering his season-long aDOT is just 7.24 - but his locked-in volume is very valuable in a Full-PPR format such as DraftKings. There's a strong chance he could see an uptick in yards this week against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL and the second-most DK points to the WR position.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 17 DFS Picks
Mark Andrews - LAR @ BAL ($7,400)
Luckily, Mark Andrews has been squarely in this article's orbit over the past month. Andrews was featured here last week and once again blew the doors off expectations by posting an 8/125/1 line with Josh Freakin' Johnson at QB. As of this writing, it looks as though it will be Tyler Huntley, not Lamar Jackson, at the helm for Baltimore in Week 17, which surprisingly enough is a good thing for Andrews' prospects.
Since Jackson exited early with an injury against Cleveland in Week 14, his replacements have targeted Andrews a ridiculous 34 times - his highest target total in any three-game stretch this season. This week's matchup against the Rams isn't the type that we dream of - L.A. has middle-of-the-road numbers against the TE position this season - but Andrews has the talent and usage needed to once again break the slate.
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