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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Valero Texas Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Valero Texas Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
TPC San Antonio
7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Bermuda Greens (Overseeded With Bent/Poa)
When the Valero Texas Open got moved to the week before the Masters, we saw the strength of the event decrease to being one of the weaker stops on tour. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to make a correlation between players wanting a break before the first major of the year and the reduced muscle playing in the contest (yes, I see Bryson DeChambeau in the field this week), but I wouldn't entirely discredit the difficulty the tournament presents.
Designed in 2010 by Greg Norman, TPC San Antonio Oaks is a lengthy Par 72 property that vaguely mimics next week's major but does so in a unique fashion that generates its own flair for the dramatics. We see those ramifications come into play immediately, with around the green producing 3.2% more impact on scoring than a typical stop on tour, and that particular factor, mixed with a seven percent decrease in GIR percentage, helps to make the layout one of the more demanding major preps on the schedule.
Six of the most challenging holes at the course stretch between 410-481 yards, creating what theoretically should produce a condensed second shot yardage, but it is essential to note that there isn't a proximity range that is wildly more impactful than the next. We see that come to fruition with each 25-yard bucket from 100 yards and beyond yielding over a 10% rate of expected output, and we even encounter a 14.4% distribution from within 100 yards - a total that ranks 3.9% higher than your average expectancy on tour. For that reason, I will be recalculating approach numbers to fit the broad spectrum of the data, as opposed to a condensed terrain of overall approach play, but anyone looking for a specific distance to target might want to dive deeper into the data from 150-200 yards.
Overall, a complete display of ball-striking, tee-to-green data, past TPC performances, GIR percentage, par-five scoring and weighted par-four will make up the beginning of my model, and despite wind calculations being something I will look into marginally, there are big scores lurking in even the calmest of conditions - ask Kevin Na in 2011 after he carded his infamous 16.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC San Antonio | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 284 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 53% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 58% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 58% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.55 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Weighted Tee-To-Green (30%) - This is a recalculated split of 23% off the tee, 27% around the green and 50% approach to mimic a blueprint for TPC San Antonio. The approach number took a redistribution of the specific yardages that my model has entered over the last few years and morphed it into a course-specific total.
TPC Stats L24 Rounds (10%) - While I did enter every TPC property into my model, I only took the most recent results. There is a chance I short-changed the past performances marginally since I am a believer in adding too much information and regressing the data back as it becomes proper, but it goes both ways since golfers sometimes get too much importance thrown onto tournaments from years ago.
Moderate to Severe Wind L50 (7.5%) - Weather can create a misleading output in your model, and wind, in general, is typically the hardest to assess because tee times are only set for the opening two rounds. We can't ignore the statistic entirely since Texas is known for its blustery conditions, but I felt the safest way to approach the information was to create a one-off weight that would incorporate overall expectations of the stat.
Weighted Par-Four (15%) - I took historical trends from 350-400 yards and 450-500 yards and mixed them with a slew of information, including bogey avoidance, birdie or better percentage and an additional assortment of proximity.
Par-Five Birdie or Better (15%) - The par-fives are lengthy and complicated. We have seen solid historical trends that have pointed towards a necessity to produce when you get those four chances daily.
Putting 5-15 Feet (10%) - Putting from this distance has been 4.1% more impactful to scoring than a random tour stop.
Weighted GIR (12.5%) - I added in a small combination of around the green and weighted proximity to the GIR totals to try and make it more suited for TPC San Antonio
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
I am going to change up the style of the article this week and rapid-fire through some choices across the board. That way, we can better understand the field from top to bottom and potentially pinpoint early ownership trends that could make decisions easier for us moving forward.
It is hard to find much to dislike about the group at the top. All five options include positive ownership leverage when comparing it to their rank, and we see each grade inside the top seven in some iteration of the sheet when we stretch the data to feature overall potential, upside and safety.
From a GPP perspective, Jordan Spieth ($10,600) likely takes the early clubhouse lead because of his favorable ceiling versus floor output, and we see some of those factors highlighted when we dive deeper into the numbers. Spieth ranks 12 spots better than expected in weighted tee to green, which helps him crack the top-10 in the field, but it was his 69 position improvement (don't be nasty) in weighted proximity that I found to be most encouraging. I know the recent form has resulted in some premature finishes for the American over the past few months, but the Texas native should feel right at home for a tournament he enters as the defending champion.
From there, we have a few decisions that will need to be made. Rory McIlroy ($11,200) is trending toward being one of the top-five owned players on the board, which isn't enough to dissuade me from using the Irishman at this moment, but I am going to keep a close watch on where some of the numbers shift. The complete tee-to-green grind should suit McIlroy's eye at TPC San Antonio, but it will come down to where the pertinent data is sitting as of Wednesday night before I can decide on the 32-year-old.
And then the other three names leave us more questions than "Ancers." Trust me, you don't make it in this space without a bag full of horrible punchlines that you are ready to deploy at any moment, but the basis of my comment is factual and more than just a slappable Chris Rock joke. Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200) and Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800) both enter the week with health concerns, which helps to explain the reduced ownership as of Monday, but MME users might want to consider each for the higher-than-average ceilings they possess if everything does come together in Texas. Abraham Ancer ($10,300), on the other hand, is a little higher priced than I would care to see, but let's see if he produces a sub-10 percent ownership mark. When the salary cost is too high, we always need a reduction elsewhere to make the golfer usable in any format.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
We almost broke the slate on Corey Conners ($9,800) during the WGC Match Play. A lot of my newer followers might not be aware that Conners was the one that initially gained me some traction in this space when I wrote him up to win the Texas Open in 2019 at 250/1, and I thought there was a realistic chance entering Sunday that we might have a 50-unit week in store if our rollover on him came through during the semi-final contest against Kevin Kisner. Unfortunately, that was not to be, but Conners looked like the best golfer in the field, and there are reasons to be encouraged about his potential again this week. The Canadian has been the top-ranked player in my model for three straight years running at this event, and while there are a few concerns about the number of rounds he played last weekend in Austin, the Canadian topped the model in all iterations.
Si Woo Kim ($9,600) was one of the better early values on the slate, producing four top-45 finishes at this contest since 2017, concluding the event as high as fourth in 2019. The early ownership is low enough to create positive leverage in all iterations of the sheet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kim turns into one of the sharper movers before everyone tees is up in a few days.
A similar sentiment can be said about Maverick McNealy ($9,500), who should give us a discount in ownership compared to his counterparts since the California kid has generated 10 made cuts in a row to go along with respectable increases in my weighted data to mimic TPC San Antonio.
Chris Kirk ($9,400) and Gary Woodland ($9,300) are trending in the direction of being two of the highest-owned players on the board, but it is hard to argue against either. My model prefers Woodland in cash-game contests because of his safety rating, but let's see where the projections trend over the next few days before backing ourselves into a corner.
And then we round out the group with Keegan Bradley ($9,200), Tony Finau ($9,100) and Jason Day ($9,000). In fairness, nobody is going to want to use Day because of his hefty price tag, but it might create the perfect storm since we get a free crack on the Australian, something that has proven lucrative in the past with his winning upside.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
You will notice a ton of red in this section. The rankings are perfectly acceptable since all of the golfers crack the top 40 in some capacity, but I am all about finding value, and I struggle to believe we have a ton of names that present an overabundance of that in the $8,000 range.
Adam Hadwin ($8,900) appears to be a reasonable enough cash-game play after producing seven consecutive top-26 finishes, but I have some concerns regarding his upside.
Luke List ($8,500) makes for an intriguing GPP target with his top-10 placement for upside, and we have a decent edge available on Mito Pereira ($8,100) and Patton Kizzire ($8,000). If ownership gets out of control for Kizzire, I am okay with pivoting him to a cash build, but let's cross that path in a few days.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-55 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
We have a handful that fit both standards, but the 18 names above will be where I am starting when trying to find value on the slate.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week, and I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers. Sam Ryder ($6,800) and Camilo Villegas ($6,200) should carry your best combination of safety and leverage.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
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