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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Mexico Open on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Mexico Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Vidanta
7,456 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Paspalum
After a week off from golf content here at RotoBaller, we are back in full force for this week's Mexico Open. It is possible that the lack of field strength is stemming from everyone wanting to stay home to watch the NFL Draft, which if you are looking to combine both worlds, check out my mock draft that I will update one last time before Thursday, but Vidanta, unfortunately, has about as many unknowns as you might see on the NFL side of the equation.
Some of that uncertainty has to do with the venue making its first appearance on the PGA Tour. That naturally implies that we won't have the standard strokes gained data that we love to decipher weekly, but there are a few underlying factors that we can point towards while trying to build a model. The course underwent a 250-yard extension to get ready for the week, providing us a new total of 7,456 yards, and nearly 50 bunkers were added to the property and positioned to create a more challenging setup for an otherwise wide-open facility. The field will sense the entire measurement because the course plays at sea level, but the real difficulty will come down to how much wind is expected in the forecast. You can never entirely escape coastal gusts in these situations, but the winning score could shift by 8-10 shots because of that one factor.
Paspalum grass can be found throughout, and while that exterior typically yields this sticky, gripping texture that can slow rollout both on and off the greens, I have heard that the event will be trying to speed things up as much as they can on the putting surface. That doesn't mean we get a firey test because this grass type will never fully produce that sort of golf, but I wouldn't necessarily be looking at how golfers putt on slower greens. It might increase some of the distance needed off the tee and provide a more significant emphasis on long iron play, but these are still easy-to-hit fairways that highlight second-shot golf more than some bomb-and-gouge mentality. I will quickly go over my model in the section below to deliver a deeper understanding of what I am valuing from a numerical perspective, but I am going to try and take a less inundated approach and instead simplify the process into what we can see and tangibly detect without pushing a preconceived notion that could be flawed.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Mexico Open | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.56 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
- Weighted T2G (25%)
- SG Total Over 7,400 Yards (12.5%)
- SG Total Easy To Hit Fairways/No Rough (12.5%)
- SG Total Wind (10%)
- SG Total Paspalum (7.5%)
- SG Total Easy Scoring (7.5%)
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (15%)
- Distance + Long Irons (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Jon Rahm leads the way at $11,300 on DraftKings, which I found to be moderately surprising since we have seen totals higher than this from him in the past, including events where he wasn't as low as 5/1 to take home the title. Unfortunately, that general sentiment seems to have leaked throughout the industry, and we are now in a position where 25%+ looks pretty plausible for his closing ownership total. Gamers will have to draw a line in the sand for how aggressive they want to be around the Spaniard this week, but the early returns I have gotten from both a modeling perspective and ownership outlook for Tony Finau ($10,400) would leave me to want to pivot onto the big-hitting American. Be sure to stay tuned throughout the week to see if that stance changes, but Finau graded first overall from an upside standpoint and also was the only golfer to grade inside the top-20 of every metric I looked into for Vidanta.
Abraham Ancer ($10,300) will be one of the lower-owned players on the board because of the concerns around his health. We have seen two withdrawals sandwiched outside his missed cut at the Masters, and while I do like the way he grades when only running this for upside, my exposure will likely be limited to nothing more than the larger-sized GPP contests. I believe you can create some leverage in that regard, but it is hard to know where he stands, especially since this tournament is in his home country.
And we round out this section with Kevin Na ($10,100) and Patrick Reed ($10,000) - two golfers that will go under the radar because of the exposure expected around Rahm at the very top. I prefer Reed when directly choosing between the two because of his unquantifiable upside that sporadically comes into play on these longer courses, and he ranks inside the top-15 in this field for strokes gained total at venues over 7,400 yards (2nd), strokes gained total in windy conditions (7th), par-five birdie or better (13th) and sand save percentage (6th).
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
If you are looking to get contrarian, Kevin Streelman ($9,100) provides some leverage to your build, but it is hard to evade the two chalkiest options in this range. Gary Woodland ($9,900) has been starting to trend again as of late, and his first-place grade in weighted tee to green and second-place mark when it comes to easy-to-hit fairways has him skyrocketing up my model. And then you have Aaron Wise ($9,500), who I am more inclined to fade because of his volatility/ownership, but the combination of distance and iron play is challenging to ignore. Let's see where these players go in popularity before making any concrete decisions, but it looks like we will need ownership changes from every golfer not named Woodland or Streelman for them to become options in my core.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
If all the bright red in my model isn't telling a story of me valuing a stars-and-scrubs approach, I don't know how to explain it better! Part of me wants to bypass this section altogether for my builds, but let's see where things move over the next few days. I always run numbers for market movement and other variables that aren't included in this dry run on Monday, and it is possible that a reduction in popularity could slowly start to shift a player up my board big board if they also are taking on some influential money that I might be missing from a first look.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
These are all the golfers in the $7,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership from overall or upside.
Nick Taylor and Patrick Rodgers qualified when running it for upside. Those choices will be much more volatile, so keep that in mind when constructing builds. The only golfers to grade as a positive value for both overall compared to DK and overall compared to ownership were: John Huh ($7,000), Kevin Chappell ($7,400), Brandon Wu ($7,300), J.T. Poston ($7,500), Danny Lee ($7,100), Pat Perez ($7,500), Emiliano Grillo ($7,200) - Grillo is GPP-Only, Michael Thompson ($7,200), Anirban Lahiri ($7,900)
Chappell and Poston have the most playability across the board. Thompson could be a sub-one percent GPP darling.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $6,000 golfers.
These are all the golfers in the $6,000 section that fit two sets of criteria:
- The golfer must be top-65 in some portion of the model.
- The player must be either a positive value against DK price or against ownership.
I am going to deep-dive Jared Wolfe, Scott Gutschewski, Aaron Baddley and a few others because I know their rank is coming from only a handful of events. The foursome of Trey Mullinax, Vaughn Taylor, Adam Schenk and Vincent Whaley are possessing the highest boom-or-bust potential of the $6,000 range, which is always worth looking at in GPPs.
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