RADIO
It's Draft Time
Last night, I participated in a 5x5 roto league on Yahoo. It was a standard roster re-draft league, so the results should be useful for most owners. While auction leagues keep getting bigger, I'm old school. I like them snake drafts.
Let’s run through the draft and talk strategy. My overall approach is to draft high upside youth and to find value wherever it’s hiding.
Editor's Note: be sure to check out all of our awesome 2015 fantasy baseball draft strategy articles & analysis including draft strategies for auction and point leagues.
The Early Rounds
Round 1 (#6): Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw is good in any league format, but particularly 5x5 roto. His video game numbers offer a lot of freedom. He’s the only pitcher I would take in the first round, and I would still only draft him after pick five. But I like him here because it became obvious that there would be some legitimate hitters in rounds two and three.
Round 2 (#19): Yasiel Puig
Round 3 (#30): Buster Posey
Puig made so many strides in his game last year that he’s more than qualified to go this high. At age 24, he can conceivably improve upon every hitting category this year. My strategy is to draft as many players on the upswing of their careers, rather than paying for someone on the decline.
At catcher, you basically either get Posey in round three or wait until the mid-teens to take a shot at the position. In this range, Posey added a lot more consistency than a few other guys in the area (George Springer and Carlos Gonzalez). When push comes to shove, consider position scarcity and consistency over hoping someone can have a career year.
Round 4 (#43): Johnny Cueto
Cueto represented incredible value in round four; he has the ability to out-produce David Price, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, and Stephen Strasburg – all of whom went a round or two earlier. I bring this up because it’s important to capitalize on value. A starting pitcher wasn’t a necessity here, but because the timing was right, it enabled me to focus on hitting for the next few picks and have zero pitching concerns.
Round 5 (#54): Billy Hamilton
Round 6 (#67): Jason Heyward
Round 7 (#78): Dustin Pedroia
As of round six, I already had three outfielders. This can happen in drafts, where you find yourself in a position that there are a lot of players you want, but the timing isn’t right. Still, I’m a big of these outfield picks because they’re all high upside plays with high floors. If Hamilton is a huge bust, he’ll still be top five in stolen bases. If Heyward declines, he’ll still provide stats in all five categories.
With the Pedroia pick, it became obvious that I needed to target some infielders. His upside in the re-tooled Red Sox lineup is huge, so I opted for him over Kipnis.
Mid Rounds
Round 8 (#81) Trevor Rosenthal
In every snake draft, there comes a time when you need to decide on relief pitchers before the vaunted “run.” Looking back on previous years, I identified that you need to take a closer by round eight to get someone above average who shouldn’t be in immediate danger of losing their job. After that, all bets are off. Three closers were taken in round five, and three more between round six and seven. Round seven and eight seems to be that magic number where you need to start thinking reliever, or you’ll be fighting over the guys that lose their jobs in April.
Round 9 (#92): Manny Machado
Round 10 (#115): Glen Perkins
Round 11 (#126): Zach Britton
In just a few rounds, relief pitching got incredibly thin. Perkins is solid in this format because, while he won’t get the opportunities that other closers might, he still has some pretty good stuff. After round 11, I was effectively done with relievers and content with my two starting pitchers. Looking at my team, I clearly lacked some power - time to find some!
Round 12 (#139): Marcell Ozuna
I almost took Cobb here, who fell considerably because of his injury. At the end of the day, finding power is significantly more difficult than a few starting pitchers at the end of the draft. Ozuna has sky high potential and was virtually the only guy left with 25 home run potential.
Round 13 (#150): Yordano Ventura
Round 14 (#163): Eric Hosmer
Round 15 (#174): Ian Kennedy
Round 16 (#187): Gregory Polanco
Round 17 (#198): Taijuan Walker
The picks at this point get a little wacky in all drafts, but this is where championships are won. The squad lacked strikeout potential, but most high strikeout guys were long gone. Ventura, Kennedy, and Walker were my three targets. Fortunately I got them all. Every few rounds, it’s important to evaluate what the structure of your squad looks like so you can draft for need. Value is important, but once you’re in the later rounds, you need to balance out.
A quick point on Walker – Yahoo had him ranked incredibly low, somewhere in the late 200s, presumably because it was uncertain if he’d make the rotation. Given his spring, he should either be the #5 starter or be called up in early April. Had I followed the Yahoo rank only, I never would have found him, and he’s probably my favorite pick. It’s important to use other lists (ahem, like those found on RotoBaller).
Late Rounds
Round 18 (#211): Javier Baez
Baez fills out my roster. At this point, nearly every team had a shortstop, and I wasn’t crazy about any of the mid-round guys. Baez is a low risk, high reward play here. He’s still too raw, but if he gets off to a hot start, he could provide a few cheap home runs. Admittedly, it would be shocking if he’s a viable SS for the entirety of 2015.
Round 19 (#222): Jake Odorizzi
Round 20 (#235): J.P. Howell
Round 21 (#246): Derek Holland
Round 22 (#259): Marcus Semien
Round 23 (#270): Kevin Gausman
Overall the team is well rounded and has considerable potential. It may be lacking in the power department, but the beauty of fantasy baseball is that you can’t be perfect in all areas.
The biggest draft surprises were Kris Bryant (round 6) and Chris Davis (round 7). Both were taken well before ADPs. Sometimes, ADP goes right out the window. What do you think of the results? Tweet me @Silent_Investor with any questions!
