Deeper Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Undrafted Players and Late-Round Picks

Elliott's deeper starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, later-round picks going mostly undrafted in 2025 drafts. His favorite SP fliers for the end of drafts.

Howdy RotoBallers! It’s draft season in fantasy baseball, which means we’re boning up on content as we prepare for another excellent fantasy baseball season. But what about the guys that no one drafts? The unselected?

There is value to be mined after the draft is over, and in this article, I will outline some pitchers whose ADP has them undrafted (or close to it) but could have value this season. In a standard 12-team Roto league 336 players are drafted, so I aimed for players who were going beyond (or almost beyond) pick 336.

These are guys you can target late in drafts or could just be names to add to your watch list or keep in mind as the season progresses. ADP is taken from NFBC and is accurate as of 3/24/25. For a deeper dive into ADP trends and strategies, check out our Fantasy Baseball ADP Guide to gain an edge on draft day.

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Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

NFBC ADP: 324.58

Boyd boys are back, boys! In case you missed it, Boyd had a strong finish to the season in Cleveland in 2024, posting a 2.72 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and 10.44 K/9 in eight starts. That earned him a two-year deal and a rotation spot with the Cubs for 2025. Boyd’s slider appears to still have it, too, as batters hit just .148 against the pitch last season, along with a .222 SLG and .212 wOBA. Boyd also had an 18.1% swinging strike rate with his slider last year, his best mark since 2019 when he had 11.56 K/9 over 185.1 innings.

The slider wasn’t Boyd’s only effective pitch last season either, as the veteran Southpaw held batters to a .209 AVG and .303 wOBA with his heater last season. Boyd regained a little velocity, averaging 92 on the gun last season. What was special about the fastball was Boyd’s extreme flyball tendencies. He had a 29-degree average launch angle against his fastball last season, with a 50% flyball rate and a 46.2% infield flyball rate. There’s no way he’ll be able to replicate that infield flyball rate, but he could still be in the 25-35% range like he has been in seasons past.

Boyd was undoubtedly lucky last season. He had a .277 BABIP against, a 75% strand rate, and an 8% HR/FB ratio. None of those numbers are egregiously fortunate, but we could expect a little regression in all three categories for 2025. Boyd projects as a sub-4 ERA pitcher with strikeout upside thanks to his slider and changeup. He might deal with injuries, but he’s basically free. He could be a good streaming option or late-round grab this season.

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

NFBC ADP: 325.03

This is not a name we ever expected to see on an undrafted players list, but that’s where we are with Max Scherzer in 2025. He’s recently struggled to stay on the mound, making just nine starts last season. Now 40, he’s also seen his stuff and skills diminish with age. Scherzer averaged a career-low 92.5 mph with his fastball last season. Still, it’s not all doom and gloom for Mad Max. The future Hall-of-Famer still has some effective pitches to work with, and if healthy, he could be a solid contributor in 2025.

The most encouraging thing about Scherzer’s 2024 is that his slider is still a dominant strikeout pitch. Opponents hit just .209 off Scherzer’s slider last season, along with a .326 SLG and .224 wOBA. He had an insane 26.4% swinging strike rate and a 46.3% chase rate with the pitch, putting him in line with his prime years. The movement on the pitch has stayed incredibly consistent as well. Here’s a look at Scherzer’s pitch movement season-by-season (slider is yellow).

The slider is almost unchanged over time, and it could be a good pitch for him again in 2025. Scherzer’s strikeout rate was reduced to 22.6% in 2024, but if his slider is this good, that number should rise. Overall, he had a 14.6% swinging strike rate last season and has a career 29.3% strikeout rate, so the strikeout upside is still present for Scherzer.

One area where Scherzer may struggle this season is home runs. He’s always been susceptible to the long ball, but he developed a full-blown case of Gopheritis over the last two seasons, allowing 1.6 HR/9 between 2023-24. With an average launch angle against of 20.8 degrees, Scherzer has extreme flyball tendencies and may be serving up homers in the AL East this season. He’s also projecting an ERA north of 3.60, which seems about right for this point in his career. If you want cheap strikeouts, Scherzer may be a strong undrafted option.

Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals

NFBC ADP: 362.38

Bubic dominated in 2024 after being converted from a starter to a reliever. In 27 appearances, Bubic posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.95 FIP, and 28.1% K-BB%. That is filthy, and with Bubic set to rejoin the Royals rotation for Opening Day, he may have some fantasy appeal as an undrafted or late-round grab.

A former top prospect, Bubic flamed out as a starter after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. He returned in 2024 and excelled as a reliever, working primarily with a three-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. He’s also added a cutter that he’s been using effectively this spring.

Something that worked well for Bubic last season was his fastball. His velocity was up almost two mph, and he averaged 93 mph on the gun last season. He’s been averaging 93 during the spring, so perhaps Bubic can carry those velocity gains into the rotation. Opponents struggled against his fastball last season, batting just .205 against the pitch and a .272 wOBA. Batters could not make solid contact, averaging just 82.3 mph exit velocity against the pitch last season. This is a big improvement for Bubic, whose fastball was getting smoked for 90+ mph in years past.

Bubic also got more whiffs with his fastball last season, putting up an impressive 15.5% swinging strike rate and a 33.3% chase rate, exceptional numbers for a fastball. Bubic gained movement with the pitch in addition to velocity and began using it differently. Let’s compare his fastball heatmap from last season to the rest of his career.

2024:

Pre-2024:

He kept it up and in against righties and away from lefties, ultimately wielding a much more effective offering. The fastball wasn’t his only big improvement, either. Bubic had a 13.3% swinging strike rate, a 37.5% chase rate with his slider, an even better 18.2% swinging strike rate, and a 45.7% chase rate with his changeup. He performed better against righties last season, largely thanks to his nasty changeup. There’s no guarantee that Bubic can translate his bullpen success to the rotation, but after seeing success stories like Reynaldo Lopez last season, why not take a shot on Bubic undrafted?

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 389.95

It’s not often that you see a pitcher with an 11.23 K/9 last season go undrafted, but that’s what happens when the same pitcher posts a 6.70 ERA and 1.85 HR/9 in 17 starts. It was an up-and-down year for Detmers, though mostly down, as the former top prospect has struggled to find his footing in the majors. He’s currently slated for a spot in the Angels rotation, and as an undrafted player, Detmers has considerable upside.

The thing fantasy players should like the most about Detmers is obvious: the strikeouts. He has improved his strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and chase rate each year in the major leagues. Last season, he had an excellent 13% swinging strike rate and a 30.1% chase rate. Detmers racks up whiffs with his nasty slider, a pitcher that opponents hit just .218 against with a .176 xBA and .252 xwOBA last season. The slider is a bona fide strikeout pitch, and Detmers could be a late-round or undrafted source of strikeouts this season if he can keep his rotation spot.

Detmers’ 2024 was terrible, but he had some incredible misfortune last year. Detmers had a .357 BABIP against despite a career-low 17.9% line drive rate and no other discernible changes to the quality of contact allowed. He was allowing the same hard hit rate and barrel/PA that he always does, but he was getting unlucky on balls in play. That likely contributed to his low 62.9% LOB rate, a number we could expect to normalize towards 70% for any given pitcher. He also served up his fair share of long balls last season, thanks to a bloated 17.1% HR/FR ratio. He has a career 12.3% rate, so I think it’d be reasonable to expect regression in that category as well.

A 6.70 ERA is unplayable, but Detmers did have a 3.86 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA despite all that went wrong for him in 2024. He also had the highest gap between his actual BA allowed and xBA among qualified starters last year, with a .282 actual BA against but a .230 xBA. Detmers is undoubtedly a risk, and I’d probably need to see a few good starts before adding or starting him in 2025, but he’s a name to remember as a post-hype sleeper this season.

Michael Soroka, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 453.71

Soroka was once an emergent star on the Braves, posting a 2.68 ERA over 174.2 innings as a 21-year-old back in 2019. It seemed like little could get in the way between Soroka and stardom, but like with many pitchers, Soroka struggled to stay healthy. Unlike many pitchers, it wasn’t arm troubles that kept him down. He pitched in just 10 games between 2020-2023 after suffering the misfortune of tearing and retearing his Achilles tendon. Out of time with the Braves, he was sent to baseball purgatory last season (AKA the White Sox) and went 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA. So, why should we believe in him?

Soroka hasn’t had the best results this spring with a 7.47 ERA and 5.86 FIP in four outings as of writing this. Still, he’s done some interesting things with his pitch mix that may have us raising an eyebrow or two. Perhaps the most interesting thing he’s done is raise his fastball velocity. Soroka threw his fastball 93.5 mph last season, but he averaged 94.6 mph in his most recent spring start. He also saw his sinker velocity spike up to 94.2 mph, where he averaged 92.3 mph with it in 2024.

If Soroka is able to sustain these velocity gains in the regular season, his strikeout rate could rise. Batters already struggled against his slider last season to the tune of a .168 AVG, .317 SLG, and .252 wOBA, along with a 41.7% whiff rate. Those are all excellent numbers, and it’s kind of surprising that Soroka didn’t have better outcomes with the White Sox given these numbers.

What held him back was his fastball, which had a 21.1% whiff rate last year. Soroka notched four whiffs with a 31% whiff rate with the four-seamer in his most recent spring start with Statcast data, and he also has an improved 11.4% swinging strike rate this spring. He had a 24.2% strikeout rate last season, and I think he could at least maintain that this year. He’s on a better team by default as well, so he’ll have a better supporting cast around him.

Soroka isn’t as exciting to me as some of the other pitchers in this article; his repertoire is limited and I don’t think he’ll be able to reach the heights we saw in 2019. He relied heavily on luck during his breakout 2019 season. Still, at cost he might be worth a stab late in drafts. If he’s able to sustain these velocity gains he could be a much better pitcher and a fantasy asset in 2025.

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

NFBC ADP: 357.00

Update: Sadly, Cody Bradford experienced elbow discomfort and will start the season on the IL. He's no longer draftable, but I like the skills and I think he's a name worth remembering when he returns.

Bradford is a forgotten man after a back injury cost him over two months on the injured list. He was effective when he did pitch, posting a 3.54 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 5.38 K/BB ratio in 76.1 innings. What’s special about Bradford is his elite control. He had an incredible 1.53 BB/9 last season, giving him a 1.01 WHIP. Pretty darn good for undrafted. Bradford has always had exceptional control, with his walk rate rarely creeping above five percent at the minor league level.

Bradford’s best skill is his control, but it’s not his only skill. He excelled at limiting hard contact last season. Opponents had just an 88.8 mph average exit velocity and a 34.8% hard-hit rate against Bradford last year. The hard-hit rate improved by 9% compared to his rookie campaign in 2022, which is an encouraging sign. He also excels at inducing flyballs, with a 17.8-degree average launch angle against and a 44.1% flyball rate. When you primarily surrender weak contact, having a high flyball rate is a good thing. That means easy outs for your fielders.

Bradford is a below-average strikeout pitcher, with his career strikeout rate at 22.3%. Don’t expect gains in that department any time soon, as Bradford only had a 10.1% swinging strike rate last season. His changeup is his only remotely effective strikeout pitch. He also does not have a guaranteed rotation spot, and most projection systems have him working as a starter and a reliever. I think if Bradford is healthy and effective, he’ll be in the rotation. Every other Rangers starter is over 30 and struggled with injuries, so there should be ample opportunity for Bradford to earn a permanent spot.

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